Oddsmakers Project James Harden to Score 29.5 PPG With Nets – Should You Bet Over or Under?
- A prop wager is setting the total scoring average for James Harden with the Brooklyn Nets at 29.5 points per game
- There are also props on his assist (8.5) and rebounding (5.5) averages
- Expectations are that Harden may make his Nets debut on Saturday against the Orlando Magic
If he’s cleared in COVID-19 protocol, the plan is for James Harden to make his debut with the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday as they face the Orlando Magic. That’s when the real expectations will begin to fall upon Harden’s shoulders.
Already, there are prop wagers out establishing totals for Harden’s per-game scoring, assists and rebounding averages with his new club.
The bar on points for the three-time NBA scoring champion is set at 29.5 per game. The under is the -130 favorite.
Harden’s assists per game are set at 8.5 per game. Again, the under is the -130 chalk.
As for rebounds, Harden is pegged a 5.5 boards per game. Whichever way you choose to play this wager, you’ll get a betting line of -115.
Odds on James Harden’s PPG with Brooklyn Nets
| Points Per Game Average | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5 PPG | +100 | -130 |
Odds as of Jan. 15th
Disappointing Start in Houston
Harden launched into the 2020-21 NBA season like a man on a mission. Through his first three games with the Houston Rockets, he was averaging 37 points per game.
That was ahead of the pace of any of the past three seasons, which have seen him lead the league in scoring with averages of 30.4 (2017-18), 36.1 (2018-19) and 34.3 (2019-20) points per game.
James Harden says goodbye to Houston pic.twitter.com/2j1hejTwDt
— NBACentral (@TheDunkCentral) January 15, 2021
Then Harden’s numbers crashed and burned. His average since Game 4 of the season is just 17.4 points. That’s 7.8 points below his career average of 25.2 PPG. His current pace for the 2020-21 campaign is 24.8 PPG.
Perhaps it was his unhappiness over his desire to get out of Houston not being met that created this downturn. Observers of the Rockets have cited Harden as being disinterested and looking to be out of shape.
How High Will Harden Go?
Will his arrival to a Brooklyn team built to win an NBA Championship right away rekindle the fire inside Harden’s belly? If analytics are to be believed, a player hits his prime at the age of 27. Harden (31) and new teammates Kevin Durant (32) and Kyrie Irving (28) are all beyond that peak.
Harden’s usage rate in Houston ran steadily around 35%. That doesn’t figure to change in Brooklyn. He’s the three-time reigning NBA scoring champion after all. Why wouldn’t his teammates want to get him the ball?
Over the last 10 seasons, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and James Harden rank in the top-four in usage rate in clutch time (min. 500 minutes).
Clutch time is the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime, with the score within 5 points pic.twitter.com/81YULvfYoC
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 15, 2021
Durant has dealt with playing on a team loaded with superstars in both Golden State and Oklahoma City. Yet his usage rate still operated at about 30 %, indicating he adapts well in this ball-sharing scenario.
The player who figures to suffer the most in this three-way equation is Irving. Expect his numbers to drop.
.@RealJayWilliams: "I think [Kyrie, KD and James Harden] might be the best [trio] assembled in the history of the league."
Is he right? (via @KeyJayandZ) pic.twitter.com/E6CMloBOpA
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) January 15, 2021
As for Harden, it’s difficult to imagine the over coming in on this wager. Last year, sharing the floor with Russell Westbrook, his scoring average dipped by nearly two points per game. Adding a third proven scorer to the mix probably costs him even more in terms of numbers.
Consider the case of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He carried the Milwaukee Bucks on his back much like Harden did in Houston. With Milwaukee, Kareem went over 30 PPG four times and won two NBA scoring titles. On a more talented club in LA, he never managed more than 27.7 PPG in a season, and that was in his first year with the Lakers.
Pick: Harden under 29.5 points per game (-130).
Odds on James Harden’s APG & RPG with Brooklyn Nets
| Prop | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Assists Per Game | Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-130) |
| Rebounds Per Game | Over 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (-115) |
An interesting twist so far this season involves Harden’s assist numbers. He’s been dishing the rock out at a pace just off the 11.2 assists per game he posted to lead the NBA in 2016-17. Harden is averaging 10.4 APG.
Still, 8.5 assists per game is a lofty pace for an entire season.
When Sean Marks was asked about what conversations he had with the Harden, KD, Kyrie on subjects like usage rate and sharing the ball. He said he didn’t have to bring it up, because the players did first.
Saying they’ll do what it takes to win
— Taylor Rooks (@TaylorRooks) January 14, 2021
As for rebounds, Harden’s game has been off in 2020-21. He’s collecting just 5.1 boards per game. That would be his worst numbers since grabbing 4.7 per game in 2013-14.
Harden has averaged over 5.5 rebounds per game in five of the past six seasons.
Picks: Harden under 8.5 assists per game (-130); Harden over 5.5 rebounds per game (-115).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
