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OKC Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers Predictions, Player Props & Odds (Jan 8)

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball

Published:


Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoots over Cleveland Cavaliers guard Caris LeVert
Nov 8, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) shoots as Cleveland Cavaliers guard Caris LeVert (3) defends the shot during the second half at Paycom Center. Oklahoma City won 128-120. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
  • Riding a 15-game win streak, the West-leading OKC Thunder visit the NBA-leading Cleveland Cavaliers
  • The Cavs have won ten straight and own an 18-1 record at home this season
  • Below, see the Thunder vs Cavaliers predictions, player props, and best odds for Jan. 8

One of the most highly anticipated regular-season matchups in recent history takes place on Wednesday night as the Western Conference-leading OKC Thunder (30-5, 13-3 away, 23-11-2 ATS) ride a 15-game win streak into Cleveland to face the NBA-leading Cavaliers (31-4, 18-1 home, 25-10 ATS), who are on a ten-game win streak of their own. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:10 pm ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse and the Cavs are listed as 2.5-point favorites.

OKC Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers Predictions

  • Thunder moneyline (+120) at BetMGM 
  • Under 220.5 (+205) at FanDuel
  • Donovan Mitchell under 22.5 points (-117) at Caesars
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This theory hasn’t been working out too well for me this season, but I don’t completely buy the Cavaliers as a true NBA title threat, one that’s going to blaze through the regular season as the top team in the league. The Cavs currently have a Net Rating of +11.5, second-best in the NBA to OKC (+12.1).

That represents a massive improvement compared to last year, when Cleveland finished 12th in the league at just +2.5.

Some of that jump makes sense based on better injury luck. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley – the team’s three leading scorers – all missed at least 25 games each last year. This season, they’ve missed five games combined.

But even with better health factored in, I don’t think Cleveland’s quantum leap in efficiency is entirely sustainable. Their Effective Field-Goal Percentage of 59.5% is not just 3.8% better than it was last year, it’s also 2.2% better than any other team in the league.

If there is an apt time for the regression I’ve been expecting to actually begin to happen, it’s against the league’s best defense. OKC sits #1 in D-Rating by a wide margin. At 102.7, the gap between OKC and #2 Orlando (106.3) is bigger than the gap between Orlando and #8 Cleveland (109.8).

OKC has also made big strides this year compared to last, improving from +7.3 in Net Rating to +12.1. But OKC is also a younger team with more room to develop. During their current 15-game win streak, 26-year-old Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 6.1 APG) has become the odds-on favorite in the NBA MVP odds, making the jump many pundits expected.

The three plays I’m backing tonight are the OKC moneyline at +120, under the alt-total of 220.5 at long +205 odds, and Donovan Mitchell under 22.5 points. I have listed out those three plays separately, but if you want to back the general theory in a same-game parlay, you can craft the following Thunder/Cavaliers SGP at FanDuel: (1) OKC vs CLE SGP: OKC moneyline + (2) under 230.5 + (3) Mitchell under 22.5 (+425).

OKC vs CLE Player Props

Player Points Rebounds Assists Three-Pointers Made
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) 32.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) 2.5 (Ov +130 | Un -166)
Donovan Mitchell (CLE) 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 3.5 (Ov -154 | Un +120) 4.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 3.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Jalen Williams (OKC) 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 5.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 1.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100)
Darius Garland (CLE) 19.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) 2.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 6.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 2.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Evan Mobley (CLE) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 9.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135) 2.5 (Ov -130 | Un -100) 1.5 (Ov +160 | Un -210)
Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC) 12.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) 11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105) OFF
Jarrett Allen (CLE) 12.5 (Ov -100 | Un -130) 10.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) OFF OFF
Luguentz Dort (OKC) 10.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 4.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) OFF 2.5 (Ov +124 | Un -160)
Cason Wallace (OKC) 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 3.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110) OFF 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -175)

NBA player props from DraftKings on Jan. 8. 

Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s only 0.3 PPG behind Giannis Antetokounmpo for the NBA scoring lead, has the highest point total of the night at a massive 32.5. SGA has hit at least 33 points in four of his last five games. Donovan Mitchell (23.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.6 APG) leads the Cavs players at 22.5. Mitchell has been held under 20 points in two straight, but he also played fewer than 30 minutes in both as his Cavs cruised to a pair of double-digit wins over the Mavericks (134-122 away) and Hornets (115-105 home).

OKC big man Isaiah Hartenstein (12.0 PPG, 12.2 RPG) has the highest rebound total of the night at 11.5, closely followed by Cleveland center Jarrett Allen (13.7 2.4 7.7 10.1) at 10.5 O/U.

Best Thunder vs Cavaliers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
OKC Thunder +2.5 (-105) at ESPN Bet +120 at BetMGM O 229.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Cleveland Cavaliers -2.0 (-115) at Caesars -135 at Caesars U 230.5 (-112) at FanDuel

The Cavaliers are 2.5-point home chalk at most sportsbooks in Wednesday’s NBA odds. The lone exception at the moment is Caesars, which has lowered the spread to Cleveland -2.0.

On the moneyline, Caesars also has the best price on the Cavaliers winning straight-up (-135) while BetMGM has the longest odds on an OKC win (+120).

There is a one-point range in the game total. FanDuel has the best under option at U 230.5 (-112) while BetMGM has the best over option at 229.5 (-115).

The Thunder are getting the majority of moneyline handle in Wednesday’s NBA public betting splits, sitting at 58%. But that’s come on just 23% of the moneyline tickets, indicating big bets are on OKC to win straight-up.

Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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