Phoenix Suns Now Odds-On Favorites to Win Pacific Division; Clippers Fade to +125
- The Phoenix Suns are odds-on favorites to win the Pacific Division ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers
- Phoenix could also finish as the top seed in the Western Conference
- Are the Clippers a value pick to win the division? See updated odds and analysis below
Given little chance in NBA Divisional odds at the start of the season, the Phoenix Suns have been one of the stories of 2021 so far. Monty Williams is a frontrunner for Coach of the Year, Chris Paul and Devin Booker were All-Stars, and the Suns are on course for their first division title since 2007.
Phoenix sits 42-17 tied on wins with the Los Angeles Clippers, but with two fewer losses. The Clippers, however, possess the head-to-head tiebreaker, having won the two previous regular season matchups between the two teams.
Despite that, Phoenix has moved to odds-on favorites to win the Pacific Division.
2021 NBA Pacific Division Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | -175 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +120 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +16000 |
| Golden State Warriors | +24000 |
| Sacramento Kings | +24000 |
Odds as of Apr 23 at DraftKings
Suns Exceed All Expectations
Trading for Chris Paul was a statement of intent. After going 8-0 in the bubble, things were looking up for the Suns, but few tabbed them as a top two seed in the ultra-competitive Western Conference. The Suns were at +2100 to win the division on Christmas Eve.
Even as recently as February 9th, Phoenix had average odds of +3300 to win the Pacific. The Lakers were -166 and the Clips were +128 at that point. Injuries to Anthony Davis and LeBron James have obviously helped Phoenix’s cause, but they have also been superb. Monty Williams’ team were 11-9 on February 3rd. They have gone 31-8 since then, and sit third in net rating in the Association for the season.
The growth of young players has been phenomenal. Smart veteran acquisitions have complemented what Williams had built last season. Even though it was a quiet trade deadline, picking up Torrey Craig for cash considerations has already proved to be a masterstroke. This is a deep Phoenix team.
Phoenix Stays Healthy
Being healthy has been the foundation of Phoenix’s success. Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges have appeared in every game this season. Chris Paul has missed one. Devin Booker has missed four. While the Nuggets, Lakers and Clippers have had to deal with injuries of varying severity, Williams has had the luxury of having his best players available.
This trend continues further down the roster. Jae Crowder has played 55, Cam Johnson has featured in 53, while Dario Saric, Cameron Payne and Jevon Carter are all above 40.
If the Clippers are to chase the Suns down, they will need their key men available. At the time of writing, Kawhi Leonard is out, Paul George sat out their last game, and veteran duo Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley have played in just over half of the games. The Clips have picked up some wins even when undermanned, but having their core players together is a necessity if they are to take advantage of a favorable schedule.
Comparing Schedules
Only five teams have an easier run to the end of the season than the Clippers. With Phoenix having the fifth-hardest schedule, this should present an opportunity for Los Angeles. Of course, the two teams facing each other on Wednesday 28th April is particularly key.
📊 18 PTS / 7 REB / 2 BLK@ivicazubac controlled the paint. pic.twitter.com/mC0iqv8TEZ
— LA Clippers (@LAClippers) April 22, 2021
Perhaps crucially, the Clippers only have one back-to-back left. The second night of that is against the Houston Rockets in the penultimate game of the season. That’s a game they should be able to win even if George and Leonard take the night off (providing Leonard is healthy to return sooner rather than later).
Phoenix has a double-header with the Nets and Knicks on Sunday and Monday, which looks brutal considering the return of Kevin Durant and how well the Knicks have been playing lately. The majority of their remaining opponents have something to play for down the stretch, including a matchup with the Lakers on May 9th when LeBron James may well be back in the lineup. They close out their season with a double-header against the Spurs, who could be fighting for a play-in spot.
Top 5!
Congrats @CP3 on passing @MagicJohnson to move into 5th on the @NBA all-time assists leaderboard. pic.twitter.com/E5pCeimLqt
— Phoenix Suns (@Suns) April 20, 2021
Owning a 20-8 record against teams above .500, the Suns have proven they can beat the best. This is a gruelling stretch to end the season, though, and a spell which could cost them as they chase the division title.
Value on the Clippers
This could come down to how much the Clippers care about improving their seeding. Load management has been a frequent topic with the Clips over the last two seasons, but with the Jazz missing Donovan Mitchell, it’s not impossible they make a run for the one seed. Utah has a favorable schedule like LA, but the top seed in the West could serve as motivation down the stretch.
Schedules alone point to the Clippers chasing down Phoenix. They have lost just five games to teams below .500 this season. Even if Leonard is out for a couple more weeks, they should be able to rack up the Ws. The Clips have a 10-5 record in games without their All-NBA forward this term.
This is going to be an interesting race to follow down the stretch. The Clips are well-positioned to chase down Phoenix, and having the tiebreaker could prove crucial. They are a decent value bet at +120.
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
