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Big 12 Tournament Odds, Preview and Picks

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Mar 7, 2022 · 10:30 AM PST

Kansas guards Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Coleman-Lands celebrate a win with teammate Zach Clemence
Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji (30), guard Jalen Coleman-Lands (55) and forward Zach Clemence (21) celebrate after defeating Texas during overtime in an NCAA college basketball game in Lawrence, Kan., Saturday, March 5, 2022. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
  • The Big 12 Conference Tournament will be played March 9-12 at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo.
  • The Nos. 8-9 seeds play March 9 to set up the quarterfinal bracket; Oklahoma State is under NCAA suspension and will not participate
  • See the Big 12 Tournament odds, seeds, bracket, and full tournament preview, below

No. 6  Kansas (25-6, 14-4) is the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Conference Tournament from Match 9-12 at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo. The Big 12 has three teams in the top 14 of the AP rankings and is projected to send six teams to the NCAA Tournament as conference tourneys commence.

No. 22 Texas beat Oklahoma State in the championship game last year, but the Cowboys are under NCAA suspension this season and will not participate. Iowa State (four) and Kansas (three) have won the previous seven tournament titles.

Big 12 Tournament Odds

Team Odds
#2 Baylor Bears +230
#1 Kansas Jayhawks +260
#3 Texas Tech Red Raiders +380
#4 Texas Longhorns +650
#5 TCU Horned Frogs +1600
#6 Oklahoma Sooners +1600
#7 Iowa State Cyclones +1900
#8 Kansas State Wildcats +3200
#9 West Virginia Mountaineers +3500

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook March 7.

 

Baylor (26-5, 14-4) and Kansas tied for the regular-season title, but the Jayhawks won the No. 1 seed in a tie-breaker because of  results against third-seeded  No. 14 Texas Tech (23-8, 12-6). Baylor and Kansas split their regular-season series and Kansas split with Texas Tech, which swept the season series against Baylor.

In the latest projected March Madness bracket, Baylor was on the #1 line with Kansas a #2 seed. It’s safe to assume that if either the Bears or Jayhawks win the Big 12 Tournament, they will earn a #1 seed on Selection Sunday.

Baylor Has Visions of 2021

Defending NCAA champion Baylor, which lost four starters off that team, enters the Big 12 tourney having won five in a row and  seven of eight despite playing without key reserves Jonathan Tchamwa “Every Day Jon” Tchatchoua and LJ Cryer recently.

Forward Tchatchoua suffered a season-ending knee injury in an 80-63 victory over Texas on Feb. 12 and Cryer has not played since Feb. 16 because of a foot injury. Cryer’s availability for the Big 12 tourney in unknown, and his absence might affect the Bears’ odds to win the NCAA Tournament.

Freshman forward 6’9 Jeremy Sochan has stepped in ably for Tchatchoua in increased minutes, averaging 10.5 points and 6.3  rebounds off the bench while playing 30 minutes per game game in the last six.  Tchatchoua was averaging 8.4 points and a team-leading 6.8. boards.

Cryer (13.5 points) is one of four Bears averaging in double figures, along with backcourt starters Adam Flagler (13.8) and James Akinjo (13.3, 5.8 assists) and freshman forward Kendall Brown (10.1, 5.0 rebounds). Sochan and Brown are projected to go in the first round of the 2022 NBA draft.

Kansas Leans on Agbaji, Brown

Kansas split the last four games of the regular season — a win over Texas, a loss to Baylor, a split with TCU — after a four-game winning streak against second-division teams.

The Jayhawks are more top heavy than most in the Big 12 — shooting guard Ochai Agbaji (19.8 points, 5.2 rebounds) and wing Christian Braun (14.9 points. 6.2 rebounds) are the most reliable contributors on team that has received sporadic point guard play from Dajuan Harris and Remy Martin.

Neither big men 6’10 David McCormack (10.1 points, 7.2 rebounds) and 6’8 Jalen Wilson (10.8, 7.3) are the third and fourth scoring options. The Jayhawks have played a bigger group since Wilson replaced Martin in the starting lineup for good Jan. 8.

Senior Agbaji and junior Braun also are projected as an NBA first-rounders in 2022 as the Jayhawks await their March Madness Region odds.

Texas Tech, Texas in the Same Mold

It should be no surprise that Texas Tech and Texas look a lot alike. New Texas coach Chris Beard led the defense-first Red Raiders to the NCAA title game in 2019, and his Longhorns play the game style — clog the lane, harass the shooter and make teams beat you from the outside.

Long-time assistant Mark Adams has continued that style in his first season after replacing Beard, and Texas Tech has done it a little better this season.

The Red raiders have held opponents to 38.45 percent, ninth-lowest in Division I, and their plus-11.7 scoring margin is 17th. Utah transfer Timmy Allen leads the balanced Longhorns in scoring (12.2) and rebounding (6.5). Guard Kevin McCullar has missed the lasts six starts with an ankle injury, and his availability is unknown.

Recent Big 12 Results

Iowa State made an 18-win improvement under first year coach T.J. Otzelberger and had a string of strong non-conference wins — Xavier, Creighton, Iowa — before beating Texas Tech and Texas in the first two weeks of Big 12 play. They haven’t beaten a league team with a winning record since that Jan. 15 win over Texas.

TCU beat Texas Tech and Kansas at home in the last two weeks, but the Frogs do not seem capable of sustained success against this strong field.

Big 12 Tournament Prediction

The Big 12 tournament has been upset-prone in recent years — teams seeded 1-5 have won at least once in the last six seasons. Texas Tech swept Baylor and Texas and split with Kansas in the regular season, but the Red Raiders more than most benefit from the home crowd (18-0 in Lubbock), but that is not in play here.

Texas Tech and Baylor are on the same side of the bracket, and from here that semifinal looks like the championship game. Despite injuries, Baylor is in good form. Take the Bears.

The pick: Baylor +230


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