Upcoming Match-ups

Michigan State vs Purdue Picks and Odds (Jan. 29)

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Basketball

Updated Jan 29, 2023 · 11:08 AM PST

Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey lays a ball into the hoop
Jan 26, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) grabs the rebound in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 1 Purdue meets Big Ten challenger Michigan State on Sunday, January 29.
  • Purdue is an 8.5-point home favorite over Michigan State at Mackey Arena.
  • Read below for Michigan vs Purdue odds, analysis and prediction

No. 1 Purdue (20-1, 9-1 Big Ten) is an 8.5-point home favorite over Michigan State in a Big Ten game at 12:15 pm ET Sunday on CBS at Mackey Arena. They Boilermakers have won at Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State for first time since 1997-98.

Michigan State (14-7, 6-4 Big Ten) had lost three of its last four before a two-point victory over Iowa on Thursday. The Spartans lost the first meeting between the two this season, 64-63 at the Breslin Center on Jan. 16.

Michigan State vs Purdue Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Michigan State Spartans +8.5 (-112) +300 Over 130.5 (-105)
Purdue Boilermakers -8.5 (-108) -385 Under 130.5 (-115)

Odds from FanDuel on Jan. 28.

No. 1 Purdue is an 8.5-point home favorite over Michigan State in a series in which the Boilermakers have had the upper hand. Purdue is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in the last seven series meetings although the Spartans have covered the last three. The Boilermakers are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four at Mackey Arena and have won the last five meetings there.

Michigan State is 11-10 ATS this season, 2-4 on the road. Purdue is 8-11-2, ATS, 2-7-1 at home after its second push of the season in a five-point victory at Michigan on Thursday The total has gone under in eight of the Boilermakers’ 10 home games and 14 of their 20 games this season. Michigan State is 10-10 against the total.

Purdue Leads With Edey

Some in the Big Ten are attempting to make a case for Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis as the conference player of the year (and he’s a terrific player), but the conversation should start and end with Purdue center 7’4 Zach Edey, not only for his numbers but also for the way he affects a game. Coach Matt Painter uses Edey (21.4 points, 13.0 rebounds) in a variety of sets on the high and low block, which creates space to free freshman guard Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith for easier shots. Edey’s pass from the low post set up a Loyer for an open three with 12 seconds left in Purdue’s 71-69 road win Jan. 5.

Loyer (13.0 points) is the only other Purdue player scoring in double figures, although fellow freshman guard 6′ Smith (9.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.1 assists) also has had an immediate impact. The Boilers are not a particularly overwhelming offensive team even with Edey, shooting 45.7 percent from the field, but the ability to funnel opponents into trouble impacts play at the other end. Opponents are shooting 39.9 percent from the floor and 29.9 from distance, among the lowest 10 percent in Division I.

Edey has 16 double-doubles, second to St. John’s forward Joel Soriano, and averages 2.3 blocks per game. Purdue leads Division I with a plus-11.2 rebound margin and has won seven in a row since its 65-64 last-second loss to Rutgers on Jan. 2.

Michigan State Nears Strength

The Spartans welcomed back physical, athletic forward 6’7 Malik Hall in their 63-61 victory over Iowa on Thursday. Hall had 11 points, three rebounds and four assists off the bench after missing the previous three games because of a persistent left foot injury that has kept him off the floor for all but 10 games this season. Michigan State is 6-5 without him, and his presence helps open up a Michigan State offense that without him comes mostly from the perimeter.


Off guard 6′ Tyson Walker (14.1 points, 37 threes), point guard 6’3 AJ Hoggard (12.4 points, 5.9 rebounds) and wing Jaden Akins (8.8 points) play on the outside, and even forward 6’9 Joey Hauser (13.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, 39 threes) is more of a spot-up shooter. Center 6’9 Mady Sissoko is the Spartans’ most physical player, and Hall will help there.

The Spartans also lead with defense and rebounding. They are limiting foes to 40.7 percent from the floor and have a plus-4.0 rebound margin. Sissoko had a double-double against smaller Iowa but faces a much different challenge here.

Michigan State vs Purdue Prediction

Purdue has won and covered the last four in this series at home, and the Boilermakers pounded the ball into Edey for the winning basket with three seconds remaining in East Lansing. Walker scored the Spartans’ final 12 points then, and he has found his stride this season after a difficult transition from Northeastern a year ago. Hall missed the first meeting, and his return will make a difference. The spread has not been this large for either side since 2013. Take the points.

  • Pick: Michigan State +8.5 (-112)
  • Season CBK: 27-14 ATS
Author Image