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New Mexico vs Colorado State Odds and Picks (Jan. 19)

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Basketball

Jan 19, 2022 · 5:09 AM PST

Isaiah Stevens battles in the post
Colorado State guard Isaiah Stevens (4) bumps Utah State guard Rylan Jones (15) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2022, in Fort Collins, Colo. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
  • Colorado State is a 16-point favorite over New Mexico on Wednesday (Jan. 19th) at 10:00 pm ET in Mountain West play
  • The Rams are off to a 13-1 start, winning three of four conference games so far
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Colorado State will look to continue its phenomenal start to the season on Wednesday (Jan 19th) when they host conference foe New Mexico.

The Rams enter play fresh off back-to-back wins, while the Lobos have dropped four straight. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:00 pm ET at the Moby Arena, in Fort Collins, Colorado.

New Mexico vs Colorado State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New Mexico Lobos +775 +15.5  (-115) O 152.5 (-110)
Colorado State Rams -1400 -15.5  (-105) U152.5 (-110)

Odds as of Jan 18th at BetMGM.

Colorado State is currently a 15.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 152.5. They’re a perfect 8-0 at home this season, and 13-1 overall.

A result of their torrid start, the Rams’ odds to win the NCAA Tournament have improved from +18000 to +12500 since October, while their Final Four odds sit at +2900. They have climbed to 29th out of 358 DI teams in the most-recent NET ratings.

Colorado State Rams Betting Analysis

The Rams’ (13-1, 3-1 MWC) latest victory was yet another blowout performance. They beat up on San Jose State 78-42, led by the 14 points of Dischon Thomas.

Isaiah Rivers splashed 12, while Isaiah Stevens poured in 10, as CSU allowed its fewest points in a game since 2015. The Rams were efficient as usual from the field, knocking down 46.3% of their shot attempts, including 33.3% of their triples.

They committed only five turnovers and punished the Spartans on the glass, out-rebounding them by 18. Defensively, CSU limited San Jose State to 27.8% from the field, and seven total assists, while forcing 13 turnovers.

It was the fourth time this season the Rams held an opponent under 60 points, and the first time they yielded fewer than 55 points. For the season, they rank 82nd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 66.2 points per night, while holding enemy shooters to a 41.6% shooting percentage.

As good as those numbers are, they’ve been even more impressive on offense. CSU is the 28th highest scoring team in the country, putting up 78.2 points per outing. They rank 11th in assists, 10th in three-point efficiency, and third in effective field goal percentage (56.9%). No wonder they’re 13-1.

New Mexico Lobos Betting Analysis

The Lobos (10-7, 0-4 MWC) meanwhile, are in a rut. They’ve lost all four of their conference games, and haven’t posted a victory since December 21st.

Last time out, they fell 71-63 to Boise State, the Mountain West’s top team. Jaelen House paced the offense with 21 points, while KJ Jenkins had 15, and Jamal Mashburn Jr. added 10.

New Mexico had one of its better shooting nights, making 49% of its attempts, and 52.6% of its threes, but were abused on the glass. The Broncos, one of the better rebounding teams in the nation, out-rebounded them 52-28, while grabbing 25 offensive boards.

The bevy of second chance opportunities the Lobos allowed overshadowed some good perimeter defense. They held Boise State to 35.5% from the field, and 30% from three.

New Mexico has struggled defensively for most of the season, so perhaps this latest performance is a step in the right direction. They rank 332nd out of 358 programs in scoring defense, and 325th in defensive rebounding percentage.

Offense is their bread and butter on most nights, as they average 76.4 points per game, good for 45th in the country, while only 12 schools get to the free throw line more frequently.

New Mexico vs Colorado State Pick

This is a major mismatch on paper. The Lobos rank 167 spots lower than the Rams in KenPom’s overall efficiency metrics, and show up significantly lower in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings.

However, they’ve proven they can keep games close when they’re a sizeable underdog. They’re 5-1 ATS as a ‘dog of more than 6 points, and have covered in three of their first four conference games so far.

CSU on the other hand, is just 7-6 overall against the spread, and 5-4 ATS versus opponents ranked outside the top-70.

One trend impossible to ignore is both teams’ proficiency at cashing under tickets recently. Each of the Rams past seven games have stayed under the total, while the under is 4-1 in New Mexico’s last five outings.

Pick: Under 153 (-120)

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