Northern Arizona vs Montana State Picks, Odds & Spread for Big Sky Championship Game
- A wild Big Sky tournament concludes on Wednesday, March 8th, with Northern Arizona taking on Montana State
- Northern Arizona has won 5 of their last 6 after winning just 2 of their previous 12 games
- Check out the Northern Arizona vs Montana State odds below, plus our best bet and prediction
Still alive. That’s got to be the rallying cry for the Montana State Bobcats (23-9, 19-10-1 ATS) after the Big Sky tournament favorites survived a double-overtime war against Weber State to advance to the conference final.
Shockingly, their opponent is the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (11-22, 19-12 ATS), the No. 9 seed entering this tournament. En route to the final, the Lumberjacks have taken down the squads with the second and third-best odds to win this competition. All that’s left is the favorite and last year’s tournament winners, Montana State.
Tipoff for the final is set for 11:30 pm ET on Wednesday, March 8th, in a game you can see on ESPN2.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | +7.5 (-110) | +270 | O 138.5 (-110) |
| Montana State Bobcats | -7.5 (-110) | -325 | U 138.5 (-110) |
Raise your hand if you had the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks penciled into your March Madness bracket? Don’t despair, nobody else outside of Flagstaff envisioned what has unfolded here.
Prior to the Big Sky tourney tipping off, Northern Arizona were given +4000 odds to take the title, in stark contrast to the +150 odds for their opponents and league chalk, Montana State.
With one game left to play, Montana State have opened as 7.5-point favorites to finally end this surreal Cinderella run by the Lumberjacks. The over/under total stands at 138.5 points, with Northern Arizona hitting the over in each of their past five contests.
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Odds as of March 8th at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Northern Arizona Hoping Glass Slipper Fits
What a wild run the Lumberjacks have been on in this tournament. Funny enough, Northern Arizona’s last game of the regular season was a narrow one point overtime loss to Weber State, the school with the 4th best betting odds to win this tourney. After a pretty awful regular season, the Lumberjacks seem to have found a recipe for success.
Northern Arizona is 12-22.
It will play for a Big Sky Tournament title on Wednesday.
Anarchy?
Nope. Just College Basketball.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 8, 2023
They’re suddenly running a spectacular offense, having scored at least 80 points in five straight games. Jalen Cone has been on fire of late, averaging 23.8 points per game in his last five stretching back to the regular season.
In two previous meetings with Montana State this season, the Lumberjacks lost both, but their last defeat came by just a single point in a game where they were 12.5-point dogs.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State Results This Season
| Date | Home-Away | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2023 | MTST 69 – NAU 68 | NAU | Under |
| 01/07/2023 | NAU 54 – MTST 69 | MTST | Under |
The Lumberjacks have been much more efficient from beyond the arc in this tournament than their opponents and have also won the turnover battle. For one more massive upset to occur, they’ll need to continue that trend against the Bobcats.
Montana State Bobcats Coming off Battle-Tested Victory
Emerging from a slug it out, physical affair that took 50 minutes of game time to finish, the Bobcats could be a bit more tired than their foes for the Big Sky tournament final.
It was almost 2:00 am ET when their semifinal contest concluded and they’ll be back at it to clash with the Lumberjacks less than 24 hours after they walked off the court with their victory over Weber State.
At this point, with a berth in the big dance and the chance to upset a top contender in the odds to win March Madness on the line, you know they’ll put their best effort forward.
Big Sky Finals:
Northern Arizona (12-22) vs. Montana State (24-9) – Wednesday 11:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
What’s at Stake:
– NAU’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2000.
– Montana State’s first time making the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons. pic.twitter.com/Eyrg1JiWbL
— Mid-Major Madness (@mid_madness) March 8, 2023
Nonetheless, there opponents will be more fresh while the Bobcats could be running on fumes. They won an ugly won to get to the championship game, shooting just 34.6% from the floor and scoring just 60 points with two extra sessions of play. If they continue that poor offensive output against a free flowing Lumberjacks squad, they too could be ripe for an upset.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State Pick and Prediction
Everybody loves a dark horse, but the fact of the matter is, Northern Arizona has earned their respect with their performance late in the season. Their vastly improved play has carried over into this tournament.
With Montana State likely dealing with some fatigued legs following their contentious semifinal against Weber State, we like the underdogs to cut down the nets and qualify for the NCAA tournament. Our prediction is to take the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks straight up in a massive tournament upset.
Pick: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Moneyline (+270)
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George has had a lifelong love affair with sports and studying sports statistics since he was a kid. He graduated from Ryerson University with a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism and has worked in the sports & media industry ever since in various roles from writer to producer.
