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Adrian Martinez’s Heisman Odds Improve From +6250 to +4250

Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez
Could Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez be a surprise contender for the Heisman Trophy in 2020? Photo courtesy @NCAAF_365 (Twitter).
  • Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez has seen his Heisman Trophy odds improve dramatically over the last two weeks
  • As a dual-threat quarterback with over 1,200 rushing yards the last two years, could Martinez be a sneaky dark-horse to win the award?
  • Ryan Bolta breaks down what to expect from Martinez in his junior year

The 2020 Heisman odds are a moving target this time of year but one player in particular is making a bigger jump than all the others: Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez.

2020 Heisman Trophy Odds

Player (Position, Team) Odds
Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State) +303
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +333
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma) +1075
D’Eriq King (QB, Miami) +1233
Jamie Newman (QB, Georgia) +1300
 Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas) +1475
 Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson) +1700
Mac Jones (QB, Alabama) +2000
Kedon Slovis (QB, USC) +2050
Chuba Hubbard (RB, Oklahoma State) +2075
 Sam Howell (QB, UNC) +2125
Myles Brennan (QB, LSU) +2275
Kyle Trask (QB, Florida) +2300
Bo Nix (QB, Auburn) +2575
Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M) +2650
Adrian Martinez (QB, Nebraska) +4250

Odds as of May 24th.

The the third-year starter for the Cornhuskers has seen his odds jump from +6250 to +4250 over the last two weeks.

There is a lot to like about his game and he could still be a solid value bet at those odds.

The Joe Burrow Blueprint

Let me make this very clear, I am not suggesting Martinez will become the top pick in the draft like Joe Burrow. What I do believe, however, is quarterbacks in college can often take unexpected jumps that propel them to new heights.

Burrow is the best recent example of this. Two years ago he finished the season with 16 touchdown passes while completing only 57.8% of his throws. Had you read a “Joe Burrow for the Heisman” article then, it would have been more startling than this one; I promise.

Martinez would definitely need a drastic jump. Compared to his freshman season, Martinez’s sophomore campaign was down across the board; he threw fewer touchdowns, more interceptions, fewer passing yards, and completed a lower percentage of passes.

That’s an ugly story to say the least.

But the positive thing is, he still ran the ball incredibly well. He has totaled 1,255 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns over the last two seasons. If Burrow can jump from 16 touchdown passes to 60 in one year, is it impossible for Martinez to have a big jump too?

Scott Frost Provides Key To Success

Burrow benefited from the coaching of Ed Orgeron who was in his third full season at LSU. Being that deep into his tenure allowed Orgeron to have a roster with many of the players he recruited to fit his system. Well, Nebraska has a third year coach of their own in Scott Frost. In his previous stop at UCF, Frost went 13-0 in his second full season. Frost improved last season over his first in Lincoln (from 4-8 to 5-7) and he could be primed for another jump in year three.

Nebraska Schedule Gives Martinez Opportunity

Martinez has a lot working for him in terms of opportunity. He plays at a power-five school on the rise and he’s the most important factor on offense. He’s a dual threat, which should allow him to find the end zone in a variety of way. He also has the benefit of playing in the tough Big Ten. The Cornhuskers close the season with one of the toughest five-game stretches in all of college football. The run includes road games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin, as well as home dates versus Penn State and Minnesota.

That looks like a daunting task … because it is. But guess what? It’s exactly what a dark-horse candidate like Martinez needs. You want to see a player with opportunities for “Heisman Moments” and he’ll have plenty.

Is it likely Nebraska runs the table against those teams? No. But that’s why you can bet Martinez at +4250. If you think there’s even the slightest chance Nebraska can catch lightning in a bottle in Frost’s third season, his quarterback is absolutely worth a shot.

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