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App State Favored by 6.5 Points at Home vs Louisiana in Sun Belt Title Game

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in College Football

Dec 3, 2019 · 4:42 PM PST

Kidd Brewer Stadium at App State
Kidd Brewer Stadium will host the 2019 Sun Belt title game on Saturday, Dec. 7th. Photo by Geologik (wikimedia commons) [CC License].
  • App State is favored by 6.5 points at home against Louisiana in the 2019 Sun Belt Title Game
  • The Mountaineers beat the Ragin’ Cajuns 17-7 during a Week 7 defensive battle in Lafayette earlier this season
  • Louisiana has never beaten App State, sporting an 0-7 record vs the Mountaineers all-time

The No. 25 Appalachian State Mountaineers (11-1, 7-1 Sun Belt) are favored by 6.5 points at home against the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-2, 7-1 Sun Belt) in the Sun Belt Title Game this Saturday (Dec. 7, 12:00 PM ET).

The Mountaineers beat the Ragin’ Cajuns 17-7 on the road in Week 7, running their record to a perfect 7-0, all time, against Louisiana.

Louisiana vs Appalachian State: Sun Belt Title Game Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Over/Under
Louisiana +205 +6.5 (-105) O 56.0 (-110)
Appalachian State -245 -6.5 (-115) U 56.0 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 3.

Statistically speaking, this is a very even matchup. The Louisiana vs App State odds reflect that. And while the Mountaineers have no hope in the 2020 National Championship odds, App State still has a very slim shot at a New Year’s Six bowl game.  Let’s dive into this Group of Five tussle and make a prediction.

Defensive Struggle Last Time

When these two squads got together in early October, the game didn’t exactly play out as predicted. App State came into the game averaging 47.0 points per game with Louisiana averaging 44.4 points per game. What transpired was something else entirely.

Mountaineers quarterback Zac Thomas had an efficient game, scoring a pair of rushing touchdowns and going 11-of-17 for 147 yards through the air in a 17-7 win that kept App State undefeated at the time. But it was a 10-minute, 11-second drive that went 19 plays and 97 yards in the fourth quarter that made a resounding statement. The drive was the program’s longest since moving into the FBS in 2014.

Basically, Eli Drinkwitz’s team proved they can win in a variety of ways

Revenge Game 7x

Win is something the Ragin’ Cajuns have never done against the Mountaineers since the teams started playing each other on an annual basis five years ago. Louisiana is 0-7 all-time against the program from Boone, NC — having been outscored by App State 224-80 over that stretch. Saturday’s game at Kidd Brewer Stadium is also a rematch of last year’s Sun Belt Championship game, which App State won 30-19.

As mentioned above, these two units can put up points. Louisiana is ranked 12th in scoring offense, putting up 38.8 points per game.

But guess which team is ranked one spot ahead of them? You guessed it: App State. The Mountaineers are putting up 38.9 points per game.

With these offenses cancelling each other out, home-field advantage is a factor. Remember, App State’s lone 2019 blemish was a 24-21 home loss to Georgia Southern on Halloween. This team will be highly motivated to avoid another home defeat — especially one in the conference title game.

New Year’s Six In Play

While that loss back on Oct. 31 didn’t do the Mountaineers any favors, the program still has an outside chance at playing in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 28. The Charlotte Observer already broke down what needs to happen for the Mountaineers to play at Jerry Word.

App State has knocked off an ACC team (North Carolina) and an SEC team (South Carolina) this season. Why not get past a Louisiana team that is also a worthy opponent — but just hasn’t gotten over the hump? Versatility, history, motivation, and home field has me liking the Mountaineers in a close one.

Pick: Appalachian State ML (-245) 

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