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Cincinnati vs Alabama Cotton Bowl Odds – Predictions and Picks for CFP Semifinal

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Updated Dec 29, 2021 · 9:29 AM PST

Bryce Young celebrates an OT win
FILE - Alabama quarterback Bryce Young (9) celebrates after Alabama defeated Auburn during the fourth overtime of an NCAA college football game Nov. 27, 2021, in Auburn, Ala. Young has been voted The Associated Press college football player of the year. (AP Photo/Butch Dill, File)
  • #1 Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite over #4 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl on Friday (December 31st, 3:30 pm ET) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
  • The Bearcats are making their first appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals, while the Crimson Tide are back for the seventh time
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

It wasn’t too long ago that most college football experts had written off Alabama’s chances of winning a second straight National Championship. The Crimson Tide silenced all of their critics in the SEC Championship game, thrashing undefeated Georgia 41-24, reclaiming the country’s top ranking along the way.

Now they enter the College Football Playoff semifinals, looking to ruin another perfect season. They’ll take on #4 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl on Friday, who is the first Group of 5 program to reach the final four.

#4 Cincinnati vs #1 Alabama Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Cincinnati Bearcats +385 +13.5 (-115) O 57 (-105)
Alabama Crimson Tide -525 -13.5 (-105) U 57 (-115)

Odds as of Dec. 28th at DraftKings.

The Crimson Tide is currently a heavy 13.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 57. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET on Friday (Dec. 31) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

#1 Alabama’s rise back to the top of the college football world is largely due to QB Bryce Young. The Heisman trophy winner has been spectacular all season, as evident by his 43-to-4 TD-to-INT rate, and he shined in the conference title game versus the Bulldogs.

Young threw for 421 yards and 3 TD, while rushing for 40 yards and a score. He torched Georgia’s top ranked defense, helping the Tide produce 24 more points than the Bulldogs had allowed to anyone else.

Young’s top target Jameson Williams hauled in seven catches, for 184 yards and 2 TD, and even more is going to be expected from him thanks to the injury to John Metchie III. Metchie suffered a torn ACL in the SEC Championship game and is done for the season.

He and Williams have combined for 68.3% of Alabama’s receptions this season, and the timing of his injury couldn’t be worse given the strength of the Bearcats’ defense.

Cincinnati boasts the number four scoring defense, and the second best pass defense in the country. They feature arguably the best cornerback duo in the nation in Coby Bryant and Sauce Gardner, and if any coverage unit is going to slow down Young it’s this one.

Not to be outdone, the Bearcats are also stout versus the run. They rank 12th in opponent yards per carry, and held the two Power-5 programs they faced this season to 3.63 yards per rush attempt.

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Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Analysis

On the other side of the ball, the conversation starts with Cincy QB Desmond Ridder. The senior is the winningest QB in the nation (44-5), and is fresh off a career season. He racked up a personal best 30 passing TD, and boasted career-highs in yards per attempt, and passer rating.

Alabama ranks 61st against the pass this season, but compensates with an excellent pass rush. They racked up the third most sacks in the country, while finishing eighth in total defense. Ridder however, is a dual threat and will need to rely heavily on not only his arm, but also his legs to keep this game close.

Fortunately for the Bearcats, that’s something the four-year starter is capable of. Ridder has nine career games of 75 or more rushing yards, and has 28 career rushing TD on his resume, including six this season.

Cincinnati enters play with a 13-0 record, and has won 23 of its past 24 games dating back to the 2019 season. The lone loss came in last year’s Peach Bowl, when they fell 24-21 to Georgia on a last second field goal.

Cincinnati vs Alabama Pick

The Bearcats have excelled against quality opponents over the past two seasons, posting an 8-0 record against the spread versus teams with a winning record. They’re 5-0 ATS as an underdog during that stretch, and covered their only game versus a top-five opponent this season by 8.5 points.

Alabama on the other hand, has been dominate in the College Football Playoff semifinals and has history on its side. The Crimson Tide is 5-1 straight up in the semis, while 11 of the 14 semifinals that have been played in the CFP have been decided by double-digits.

However, this Alabama program has shown it can be vulnerable, the SEC Championship game notwithstanding. The Crimson Tide needed four overtimes to beat Auburn, squeaked out one-score victories over Arkansas, LSU and Florida, and lost to Texas A&M. This Cincinnati team is stronger than anyone Alabama has faced all season outside of Georgia, and they have the ingredients to keep this game very close.

Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats +13.5 (-115)

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