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College Football Week 4 Upset Picks: Kentucky to Quiet Clanga

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in College Football

Sep 20, 2018 · 1:51 PM PDT

Mississippi State
Bully goes on the road as Mississippi State take on their first conference opponent under Joe Moorhead. Photo by US Air Force
  • We’re back in Week 4 with only the finest underdogs and only the sketchiest favorites, for your betting pleasure
  • It’s time to ride or die, Kentucky
  • For once we don’t #PutPittIn

Last week was our first winless week at the SBD Weekly Upsets Column, although Georgia Tech did come pretty close. Pittsburgh is officially only capable of getting it done when we’re fading them.

Week 3 Upset Pick Results

Our Pick Result
Ole Miss (+825) L
TCU (+370) L
Georgia Tech (+155) L

We were up 9.7 units heading into Week 3, so now we’re *only* up 6.7 on the season.

College Football Week 4 Upset Picks

Let’s pick some winners in Week 4 and get back on track!

Florida at Tennessee

Team Spread Moneyline
Florida -4.5 (-110) -190
Tennessee +4.5 (-110) +165

I have no faith whatsoever in the Florida Gators’ ability to do absolutely anything of value in the year 2018. I predicted that The Streak would come to an end, and come to an end it did. This week I predict they will lose to a division rival with an airheaded Saban-assistant head coach, and lose they will.

Florida has been truly dreadful so far in 2018, despite blowout wins over Charleston Southern and a win in the “Florida Paid How Much For Jim McElwain?” game. For their true measure, look only to the Kentucky game, in which the Wildcats did their damnedest to lose. Kentucky committed twelve penalties for 114 yards, and turned the ball over to Florida twice. That didn’t matter, because they also gained 7.4 yards per attempt rushing.

Florida has been truly dreadful so far in 2018, despite blowout wins over Charleston Southern and a win in the “Florida Paid How Much For Jim McElwain?” game.

I’m going to put a marker down: if you can’t stop Kentucky from racking up 303 yards rushing, and your quarterback posts a 48.2 QBR while throwing two touchdowns, somehow, you don’t get to be favored on the road against anybody.

Washington State at USC

Team Spread Moneyline
Washington State +5.0 (-105) +170
USC -5.0 (-115) -200

USC has disappointed me all season, and I’m done with the Trojans. First they didn’t beat Stanford, which was fine. Then they didn’t beat Texas, which is not fine. The only reason we’re not fading Texas right now is that they’re playing TCU and this is an upsets column.

The only reason we’re not fading Texas right now is that they’re playing TCU and this is an upsets column.

I think Washington State has it’s stuff sufficiently together to pull off another upset against USC. The Cougars proved too much for the Trojans in 2017, and that was with Sam Darnold, Ronald Jones II, and a functioning defense. This year, USC is an easier target for Mike Leach’s merry band of marauders.

The best thing in sports betting is getting on the other side of a huge brand name. There isn’t a brand bigger than USC.

Mississippi State at Kentucky

Team Spread Moneyline
Mississippi State -10.0 (-110) -370
Kentucky +10.0 (-110) +285

I love fading Mississippi State here. They’ve done everything they can in the early season to massage their efficiency numbers, beating Stephen F Austin, Kansas State, and Louisiana-Lafayette in boatraces. Going to Kentucky for their first conference game presents a whole new set of challenges, and while we’d all love for Clanga to be a playoff team, I get the impression that Joe Moorhead might be heading for a slip-up.

Transforming one of the slowest, most efficient teams in the country into, well, a Joe Moorhead team is going to take a while, and it’ll be supremely funny when they drop one of their next two games. I suspect that they’ll be the favorite against Florida as well, so who knows what we’ll do next week.

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