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College Football Win Totals You Need to Bet Before Kickoff

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Aug 16, 2022 · 6:00 AM PDT

Georgia Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart celebrates winning the National Championship
Jan 10, 2022; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart celebrates after defeating the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2022 CFP college football national championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
  • The 2022 college football season begins with a smattering of games on Aug. 27
  • Win totals can move quickly after oddsmakers get an on-field look at a team’s roster
  • Read below for college football win totals odds, and the best bets to make before kickoff

The 2022 college football season kicks off with 11 games on Aug. 27, although most FBS programs start the following week.  The CFP championship game will be played Jan. 9 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, the site of the 2022 Super Bowl.

College football win totals can change dramatically early in the season after oddsmakers get an initial look at the impact of not only coaching and scheme changes but also of high-profile newcomers, especially those from the transfer portal.

Which programs are overvalued entering 2022? Which are undervalued? Here are my four best CFB win totals plays and analysis.

Georgia Under 11.5 Wins

Team Total Over Odds Under Odds
Georgia Bulldogs 11.5 -215 +165

All odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Aug. 15. Win totals are regular season only. 

 

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Why not begin with the defending national champion? Georgia’s run to its first NCAA title in 41 seasons included dominating victories over Michigan and Alabama in the CFP final four, with the championship game win over Alabama avenging its only loss to the Crimson Tide in the SEC title game.

This may be a very good team, but it is not the same team. A record 15 Bulldogs were selected in the 2022 NFL draft, including eight starters from defensive a unit that held opponents to 10.2 points and 268.9 yards per game, first and second in the FBS, respectively. That’s in a conference in which nine teams averaged at least 29.1 points per game.

Once again, Kirby Smart’s ‘Dogs have a very favorable conference schedule after opening the season at home (in Atlanta, 72 miles from Athens) against Pac-12 contender Oregon and former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix. They miss SEC West top three Alabama, Texas A&M and Arkansas and play Tennessee at home.  See more on Tennessee online sports betting, ahead of the upcoming season for the best sportsbooks and promos.

The dominance they demonstrated in 2021 is historically unsustainable, although you could not prove it based on the early national championship odds.

Cincinnati Under 9.5 Wins

Team Total Over Odds Under Odds
Cincinnati Bearcats 9.5 -118 -108

Luke Fickell has done one of the best coaching jobs in the FBS in the last half-dozen years, building Cincinnati from a solid program into a national contender in his six seasons.  He has some retooling to do this season, the Bearcats’ last in the AAC before joining the Big 12, although they remain the league favorite in the preseason college football conference title odds.

How the Bearcats replace efficient (and underrated) four-year quarterback starter Desmond Ridder, the best cornerback tandem in the FBS in No. 4 overall NFL draftee Sauce Gardner and Jim Thorpe Award winner Coby Bryant, and a Group of Five-record nine NFL draftees will tell the tale.

Evan Prater and Ben Bennett are the candidates to take the first snap of the season at explosive Arkansas, a game that will give an early indication as to the Bearcats’ defensive recovery. Cincinnati misses AAC title contender Houston, but has road games at SMU and UCF.

Minnesota Over 7.5 Wins

Team Total Over Odds Under Odds
Minnesota Golden Gophers 7.5 -143 -+112

Minnesota had a nine-win season a year ago, including a bowl game victory over West Virginia despite losing top running back Mo Ibrahim in the season opener against Ohio State and being forced to go deep in the depth chart at that spot.

Fifth-year quarterback Tanner Morgan has not come close to duplicating his 30-touchdown 2019 season, but Fleck summoned old friend Rick Ciarrocca to take over the offense in 2022 after a year with West Virginia. Morgan should not feel like the lone ranger — Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is the only Big Ten quarterback listed in the Heisman Trophy odds.

The Golden Gophers were third in the FBS in total defense (278.8 yards per game) and sixth in the FBS in scoring defense (17.3 points), although sharps understand that because Minnesota struggled offensively (99th in the FBS), opponents could play it closer to the vest. Minnesota has a favorable schedule, missing both Big Ten West 1-2 contenders Ohio State and Michigan and playing Purdue and Iowa at home.

Arizona Over 2.5 Wins

Team Total Over Odds Under Odds
Arizona Wildcats 2.5 -148 -+116

Arizona has nowhere to go but up after breaking a 20-game losing streak against COVID-depleted California last season, the Wildcats’ only win in coach Jedd Fisch’s first year.

Fisch raided the transfer portal for Washington State sophomore quarterback Jayden de Laura, second in the Pac-12 in passing yards and fourth in passing efficiency and total offense last season, and he also came away with UTEP wide receiver Jacob Cowing. The Wildcats are a prime target to improve after historically weak red-zone efficiency. Ohio State offered de Laura out of Honolulu’s Saint Louis School.

Barstool Sportsbook is listing Arizona at only 2.5 in the college football win totals, which is just too low for this improved Pac-12 school.

 

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