- USC quarterback Caleb Williams is slightly favored over Ohio State’s CJ Stroud in the Heisman odds ahead of Rivalry Week
- There are a few hypothetical scenarios that could lead to either Williams or Stroud locking up the trophy Saturday
- Read below for the latest Heisman odds, plus analysis on the race entering Rivalry Week
Rivalry Week has arrived in college football, and it could have major implications on the 2022 Heisman race. USC quarterback Caleb Williams is currently favored over Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud in the Heisman odds entering the final weekend of the regular season.
The Heisman Trophy will be voted on before the CFP playoffs begin, meaning contenders for the award only have 1-2 games left to impress the media. There are a few different scenarios this weekend that could result in the Heisman winner being virtually determined.
Let’s dive into the latest Heisman odds and analyze which player has the best value entering Rivalry Week.
|Caleb Williams (QB, USC)||-130|
|CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)||+110|
|Blake Corum (RB, Michigan)||+2500|
|Max Duggan (QB, TCU)||+5000|
|Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)||+10000|
|Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)||+10000|
|Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)||+10000|
|Stetson Bennett (QB, Georgia)||+12000|
Odds as of November 24 at FanDuel. Take advantage of the FanDuel Sportsbook promo code for Heisman betting.
The Heisman odds suggest Caleb Williams will be the Heisman winner based on his -130 odds (56.5% probability).
Caleb Williams Heisman Analysis
USC quarterback Caleb Williams is the Heisman favorite for the first time this season entering Week 13. The ex-Oklahoma pivot surpassed previous favorite CJ Stroud in the odds following an impressive performance against UCLA last weekend.
Williams and USC face Notre Dame on Saturday, where they are priced as only five-point favorites. The Irish are riding a five-game winning streak and are a popular pick to cover the spread against the Trojans.
— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 23, 2022
At -130 odds to win the Heisman at FanDuel, there isn’t much value on Williams to win the trophy right now. The Irish match up really against the Trojans and are surrendering only 317 yards and 20 points per game.
Williams is an incredible talent, but we saw at the end of last season when he went up against a strong Iowa State defense, he managed just 87 yards and a 44% completion percentage vs the Cyclones.
We’re not suggesting the Irish will completely shut down Williams on Saturday, but it’s more likely than not that his Heisman odds will hold better value after the game concludes. ND has taken four straight meetings with USC.
CJ Stroud Heisman Analysis
Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud is the second betting choice to win the Heisman entering Rivalry Week. Stroud lost his spot atop the odds board after underwhelming in a close win over Maryland last weekend.
Stroud and the Buckeyes face rivals Michigan in Week 13, where they are 8.5-point chalk against the Wolverines. Ohio State is primed to exact some revenge on Michigan after losing 42-27 in this matchup last season.
Stroud torched the Michigan secondary in 2021, passing for 394 yards and two scores. He could put up even bigger numbers this season, especially with his top target Marvin Harrison Jr. emerging as one of the best receivers in the nation.
We like Stroud a lot at his plus-money price at FanDuel entering Rivalry Week. One of the key reasons is OSU’s home-field advantage Saturday, as Stroud has tossed 27 TDs at home compared to just eight on the road.
Stroud’s numbers are going to be too good to ignore if he balls out against Michigan. The junior leads the nation with 35 TD passes, and a couple big games to close out the year should put him over the top.
Don’t Count Out…
Oddsmakers have the Heisman as a two-horse race entering Week 13, but we think a third player deserves more consideration. Michigan running back Blake Corum has been outstanding this season and is a potential x-factor in the Heisman odds.
Corum suffered a knee injury last weekend against Illinois and is questionable to play against Ohio State. Corum’s Heisman odds were as short as +400 prior to the injury, but oddsmakers have since dropped them to +2500.
Michigan offensive lineman Ryan Hayes may have accidentally leaked that Corum wouldn’t be playing Saturday, which could be a factor in these odds. The Wolverines gashed OSU for almost 300 yards last season, so Corum has high potential if he plays.
Michigan OT Ryan Hayes on star RB Blake Corum: "He's a great player, but everybody else is gonna step up with him out."
— Griffin Strom (@GriffinStrom3) November 21, 2022
Corum has rushed for 1,457 yards and 18 scores this season, which puts him on pace to finish with similar numbers as recent running back Heisman winners, barring he’s able to play the final two games.
One of Stroud or Corum is going to have a Heisman moment on Saturday. The smart way to handle this is to monitor the Corum injury update and either hedge your Stroud bet with a sprinkle on Corum (if he plays) or increase your unit size on Stroud (if he doesn’t play).