LSU (-150) Favored to Be #1 in Tomorrow’s CFP Rankings; Ohio State Second (+225)

• The CFP Selection Committee will release its first set of rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 5
• LSU (No. 1 in the AP Poll but No. 2 in the Coaches Poll) is the odds-on favorite to be ranked No. 1
• Ohio State (No. 3 AP, No. 4 Coaches) has the second-best odds, just ahead of Alabama (No. 2 AP, No. 1 Coaches)

The first College Football Playoff rankings are due out on Tuesday, Nov. 5th. Just four teams are in the running for the top-four spots in the rankings, according to the oddsmakers: LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson.

Unsurprisingly, those four teams also sit atop the four-team playoff odds, which assess how likely it is that teams will qualify for the four-team CFP field.

LSU, which is the top-ranked team in the AP Poll, is favored to be the No. 1 in the eyes of the Selection Committee, as well.

Odds Be No. 1 In First CFP Poll

Odds taken November 4. 

Although LSU is favored, they are not a lock to be the No. 1 team in the first CFP poll. One of the main reasons; while they’re No. 1 in the AP Top 25, they are actually No. 2 in the Coaches Poll. Also, in the AP Poll, Alabama (21) actually has more first-place votes than LSU (17) but the Tigers have more overall points.

Diving in deeper, Ohio State could also be the No. 1 team in the country. They also received 17 first-place votes in the AP Poll.

LSU currently has 1479 points in the AP Poll, Alabama has 1472 and Ohio State has 1467. It’s a razor-thin margin and there is no consensus #1 team in the nation at this point. Since none of these teams have played each other yet, it’s a matter of great subjectivity.

I would bet that LSU is the top team in the country simply because they’ve had the toughest of the three schedules. They’ve already played and beaten three top-10 teams. The only ranked team Alabama beat was No. 24 Texas A&M, which is no longer ranked.

As for Ohio State, they’ve played two teams in the Top 25 but nobody ranked better than No. 13. Bet LSU here based on strength of schedule.

Odds Be No. 2 In First CFP Poll

Odds taken November 4. 

If the Tigers are ranked No. 1, then my bet for No. 2 would be Alabama. In terms of the eye test, you’d have a hard time saying anyone has looked better than Ohio State this season but Alabama entered the season ranked higher. They were No. 2 in the preseason while Ohio State was No. 5.

At this point, as good as Ohio State has looked, I’d have a hard time putting them ahead of Alabama simply because they haven’t done anything wrong. Alabama has the pedigree and they’ve won by at least 19 points every week (average margin of victory is 33.6).

For now, I have LSU as the No. 1 team in the country and Alabama as a close No. 2.

Odds Be No. 3 In First CFP Poll

Odds taken November 4. 

If we’ve got LSU and Alabama as the top two teams in the country, Ohio State makes sense as the No. 3 team. I actually think this is the best bet because the top two spots will probably be LSU and Alabama, and Ohio State should be a clear-cut third.

Again, if you’re looking at what’s been done on the field this season, LSU has been impressive while Ohio State is right there with them. I don’t know that Ohio State has done enough to leapfrog the other two but they’ve looked damn good. The schedule is a bit of a concern as their best wins were against No. 13 Wisconsin and No. 25 Michigan State.

Remember that Michigan State is no longer in the Top 25 while Wisconsin also lost to Illinois. That really hurts the Buckeyes credibility. They did beat Cincinnati, who is now ranked No. 17 but nobody really views them as a rigorous test for Ohio State.

There’s no question they’ve smashed teams but outside of these three wins, they’ve beaten teams like Florida Atlantic, Northwestern, Nebraska and Miami of Ohio. If they can stay undefeated through the end of the year and beat No. 5 Penn State, No. 14 Michigan and win the Big Ten Championship game, they’ll be where they want to be.

For now, this team is a good bet to be third in the College Football Playoff tomorrow.

Odds Be No. 4 In First CFP Poll

Odds taken November 4. 

The No. 4 slot is the easiest bet and the oddsmakers have made that clear. This should go to Clemson, which is currently ranked No. 4 in the AP Top 25 and No. 3 in the Coaches Poll.

Clemson entered the season as the No. 1 team in the country but they’ve been the least impressive of the four. At the same time, they are still undefeated, are the only 9-0 team among the four squads, and are winning by 32.6 points per game.

Sure, they haven’t looked great at times, but they’re not going to get left out of the top four. They deserve to be there but the other three have good cases to be higher in the initial rankings.