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Updated 2020 College Football Win Total Best Bets: Baylor Drops to 6.0

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in College Football

Updated Mar 11, 2021 · 6:07 AM PST

Baylor vs Iowa State football game
The Baylor Bears are nine-point underdogs in the Big 12 title game despite taking a 28-point lead on OU in their first meeting back in November. Max Goldberg (flickr).
  • The Big 12, ACC, and SEC will kick off their college football seasons in September
  • Baylor, Kansas, Wake Forest and Alabama have seen their 2020 win totals adjusted in the last two weeks
  • Here are three win totals you should consider betting on before the season begins

The countdown to college football kickoff is on.

What better way to celebrate than by taking advantage of the college football win totals? The betting action over the past two weeks has led to some changes in the win totals. Evidently, bettors are fading Baylor, Kansas, and Wake Forest, which all saw their totals drop, while Alabama has been bet up from 8.0 wins to 8.5. Here are the three win totals I like best, starting with a team that others are fading.

Baylor Bears Win Total

Team Win Total & Odds
Baylor Bears 6.0 (+110o/-140u)

Odds as of Sept. 2nd.

This was on my radar before the win total dropped from 6.5 to 6.0. Baylor hired LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to run the program and I’ve long thought he would make a great head coach. He takes over a program that won 11 games last year and, frankly, I’m not understanding the reason for the lack of love.

Charlie Brewer returns as quarterback yet again. The senior has racked up 7,531 passing yards and 69 total touchdowns in his time at Baylor. Now he’s armed with a new head coach and a new, up-tempo offensive coordinator in Larry Fedora. The Bears will play 10 games as part of their conference-only Big 12 schedule and I absolutely believe they’ll win seven or more.

The Pick: Baylor Over 6.0 Wins (+110)

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North Carolina Tar Heels Win Total

Team Win Total & Odds
North Carolina Tar Heels 7.5 (-140o/+100u)

Odds as of Sept. 2nd

Bet on good players in bad conferences. It’s a simple strategy that I love to follow. In this case, I’m betting on North Carolina QB Sam Howell to build on his incredible freshman season. He finished tied for second in all of college football with 38 touchdown passes. Pro Football Focus graded it the second-best freshman season for a quarterback since 2014, finishing behind only Trevor Lawrence.

The ACC is playing one more game than both the Big 12 and SEC and that’s important here. With the Tar Heels playing 11 games, I think it’s likely they win eight or more in the soft ACC. They have to play Notre Dame, which joined the conference for one year, but don’t face Clemson. It’s a dream schedule that will result in this bet going over the number.

The Pick: North Carolina Over 7.5 Wins (-140)

Clemson Tigers Win Total

Team Win Total & Odds
Clemson Tigers 10.5 (-125o/-105u)

Odds taken Sept. 2nd

Speaking of Clemson, they are also on my list of suggestions. Betting the over here requires the Tigers to run the table. Despite having Trevor Lawrence back for a final season before he heads to the NFL, I’m choosing to fade Clemson. The program has had its fair share of success but I expect them to miss the College Football Playoff after losing at least once in the regular season.

There are two games in particular that have my attention when looking at the Clemson schedule. A home date against D’Eriq King and Miami as well as a road date against Ian Book and Notre Dame. Whichever team it is, I feel a lot more comfortable betting that someone will get the job done as opposed to betting the Tigers to make it through unblemished.

The Pick: Clemson Under 10.5 Wins (-105)

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