F1 Picks & Odds: Miami Grand Prix Predictions & Best Bets 2026
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Green flag now at 1:00 p.m. ET due to weather. Tune in on Apple TV
- Both front-row starters have struggled off the line, which could open the door immediately for drivers just behind them
- There’s at least one plus-money spot where the numbers and the odds don’t quite line up
It’s been a minute since we’ve had Formula 1 cars on track, and Miami is wasting no time throwing variables at us.
Impending storms have already pushed the start time up three hours to 1 p.m. ET, which adds another layer of uncertainty to a race that didn’t need any help in that department.
We touched on it in the DFS piece, but it’s worth repeating. Safety car odds are sitting near “basically inevitable,” both front-row starters have had issues off the line, and now we’re throwing weather into the mix.
In other words, this race has multiple ways to go sideways. The grid only adds to that.
Kimi Antonelli captured pole, with Max Verstappen alongside on the front row. Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris make up the second row, while George Russell and Lewis Hamilton roll off fifth and sixth.
It’s a slightly jumbled grid, which should lead to some interesting action early, especially if the start doesn’t go clean.
We’re not trying to predict all of it…Just a couple.
Miami Grand Prix Odds
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5/3 at 9:10 a.m. ET. Kimi Antonelli is the favorite at +140, implying a 41.67% win probability, while Max Verstappen is +180, implying 35.71%.
Miami Grand Prix Best Bets
Max Verstappen over Lando Norris (-134, BetRivers)
Verstappen rolls off the front row for the first time this season in what looks like a significantly improved Red Bull. Norris grabbed the sprint win from pole earlier in the weekend, but will start fourth for Sunday’s race.
We have Verstappen projected at 2.67, compared to Norris at 4.58.
That’s nearly a two-position gap, which is more than enough to justify this price. The only real concern is the start, where Verstappen has had his issues, but if he gets through clean, this sets up well.
Alex Albon over Esteban Ocon (+120, DraftKings)
This one is simpler.
Albon starts 15th. Ocon starts 14th. We’ve got them projected at 14.58 and 14.83, respectively.
It’s a negligible difference on paper, but the wrong driver is favored. We’ll take the plus money and let it play out.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
