NFC Championship Betting – Packers Hope to Upset Seahawks (UPDATED)

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 46.5 o/u)

This weekend’s NFC Championship game finds the Green Bay Packers (12-4, 4-4 away) visiting the Seattle Seahawks (12-4, 7-1 home), who have won seven straight playoff games (including last year’s Super Bowl).

Last weekend, the Seahawks downed the Carolina Panthers, 31-17, covering as big 10.5-point favorites. Running counter to the teams’ season-long trend, it was the Seattle passing game that led the way; quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 268 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions (while the running game mustered just 100 yards total).

The uber-focused pivot isn’t taking time to bask in his performance, though. “It’s exciting but the job is not done. There is still a lot more to do. [This weekend’s game is] going to be one of those for the ages. You look forward to that,” said Wilson.

The Seattle defense wasn’t quite as dominant against Carolina as it had been in the last month and a half. For the first time in eight games, they gave up over 300 yards of total offense. Indeed, the Panthers’ 362 total yards is almost 100 yards more than Seattle’s regular season average. However, 83 of those yards came late in the fourth quarter with Seattle leading 31-10; and the defense did force three turnovers (including a pick-six by safety Kam Chancellor).

All in all, there’s no reason for concern and the Seattle defenders are still feeling confident.

“Guys are playing selfless,” said Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman. “There aren’t any egos, there aren’t any agendas, and guys just want to do whatever it takes to win.”

If the Packers are going to overcome that selfless defense, they’ll need another Herculean effort by injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Last week in a 26-21 win over the Cowboys, the Packers signal caller passed for 316 yards and three touchdowns despite being noticeably limited in his movements due to an injured calf. (The five-point margin wasn’t enough to cover the six-point spread, however.)

Rodgers now boasts a career playoff passer rating of 105.3 (second only to Wilson’s 109.6).

However, Rodgers has not had a lot of success against the Seahawks in Seattle. In a 36-16 week 1 loss, he passed for only 189 yards with one TD and one pick while being sacked three times.

The Packers are downplaying the importance of that game, though.

“This team from Week 1 has grown a lot, so we’re definitely looking forward to it,” said tight end Andrew Quarless. “I don’t think anybody’s intimidated. … Their secondary is definitely a great secondary. You’ve got to give them their respect. But you know the whole ‘Legion of Boom,’ we’ll see.”

Added Packers offensive lineman T.J. Lang, “It’s going to be a good matchup and we’re excited about it. It’s going to be a tough one, we understand that, but we’ll be ready for the challenge.”

While everyone is discounting the Packers playing in the chaotic CenturyLink Field, look for Rodgers and the Green Bay defense to make this a close game. That’s why you take Green Bay and the points (+7.5).

(UPDATE: Green Bay has officially listed Aaron Rodgers as “probable”, though there is little doubt he will play. Adding to the concerns for the Packers, running back Eddy Lacy was also listed as “probable” due to a knee injury. While Lacy is almost certainly going to play, as well, the “probable” status indicates he’ll be less than 100%.)

(Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)