NFL Betting – Jets Look to Takeoff in Steel-town

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 48.5 o/u)

Last season, the final Wild Card spot in the AFC was the New York Jets’ to lose entering the final week. As we know, they did in fact lose it, allowing the Pittsburgh Steelers to sneak in. Now, these two teams are set to do battle in Week 5. The Jets (1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) will hope to leave the last two weeks behind them, and get their season back on track this Sunday (October 9, 1:00 PM ET) when they travel to Heinz Field to take on the offensive juggernaut that is the Steelers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS).

In a season where the Jets had their best chance of taking the AFC East from the New England Patriots – thanks to Deflategate – Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,012 passing yards, four touchdowns, ten interceptions) and the rest of the team have thrown the opportunity away.

Fitzpatrick’s nine interceptions over the last two weeks have led to back-to-back double-digit losses, and some external mutterings for Geno Smith to take over under center. Looking at the talent the Jets have at the skill positions – not to mention on defense – there is no reason the team should be 1-3. Brandon Marshall (16 receptions, 249 yards, one touchdown) is still an elite receiver in the league, and Quincy Enunwa (23 receptions, 243 yards, one touchdown) has filled in very nicely for Eric Decker, who is dealing with a shoulder injury that is expected to keep him out a little longer.

The team has also found a workhorse in the backfield in Matt Forte (81 carries, 288 yards, three touchdowns), but they may have pushed him a little too far. Forte left last week’s game against the Seahawks and has been listed as questionable for Week 5.

New York has been able to move the ball, ranking 11th in rushing and 19th in passing, but have been horrible in the red zone – Fitzpatrick’s favorite place to throw interceptions. Through four games, the Jets are averaging a measly 19.8 points per game (22nd).

Defensively, their front-seven has been wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks, recording 11 sacks (sixth). However, their secondary continues to give up big plays through the air, resulting in them sitting 16th in total defense and 21st in scoring (26.3 points per game).

Being susceptible to big plays through the air is a recipe for disaster against the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger (1,116 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, four interceptions) is making a legitimate push for league MVP, and that’s largely thanks to his favorite target, Antonio Brown (28 receptions for 369 yards, and four touchdowns), being uncoverable. However, Big Ben has also made the most of Sammie Coates (13 receptions, 282 yards) and Jesse James (12 receptions, 85 yards, two touchdowns).

And the rich only got richer last week with Le’Veon Bell’s return (18 carries, 144 yards). Week 4 marked the first time the “Killer Bs” took the field together since November 2015. Although DeAngelo Williams (70 carries, 265 yards, three touchdowns) was performing nicely in Bell’s absence, he isn’t anywhere near as explosive.

Outside of one hiccup against the Eagles, the Steelers have looked like one of the best teams in the league. They are averaging 27 points per game (seventh) and boast a balanced attack, ranking 12th in passing and 13th in rushing.

Their defense is just outside the top-ten in scoring, allowing an even 20.0 PPG (11th). However, it only ranks 27th in yards thanks to an inability to slow teams through the air (31st against the pass).

The formula for the Jets to hang around this game is simple: win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh’s defense has generated six takeaways in four games (tied for 12th), and their offense has only given it away five times (tied for tenth). The Jets have turned the ball over more than any other team in the league, and have only come away with two takeaways (tied for 29th).

If Fitzpatrick can protect the ball, give Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte the opportunity to make plays, and get a solid performance from his defense (i.e. limit the over-the-top plays), the Jets should be able to keep this game within a touchdown. But that’s an awful lot to ask from this team.

The Steelers receivers will torch the Jets’ secondary, and their defense will slow down Forte and the ground game, resulting in Fitzpatrick having to shoulder the load. The quarterback is lacking a lot of confidence right now, and hesitancy is the worst trait a quarterback can have.

Pick: Steelers (-7).

Photo Credit: Keith Allison (Flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].