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2024 NFL Mock Draft Using Betting Odds – See How Sportsbooks View the 1st Round

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Apr 16, 2024 · 3:37 PM PDT

JJ McCarthy throwing the football
December 31, 2022, 2022; Glendale, Ariz; USA; Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy (9) throws a pass against TCU during the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Breen-Arizona Republic Ncaa Fiesta Bowl Game
  • Sportsbooks have now released hundreds of NFL Draft odds/props
  • I have used the sportsbooks’ NFL Draft odds to fill out a full first-round mock draft
  • See which players are favored to be selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and who your favorite team is expected to take below

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft is scheduled for Thursday, April 25. With just over a week until we’re all tuning in, sportsbooks have now released hundreds of NFL Draft props. As I have done in the past, I have rounded up all of these NFL Draft odds and put them together like puzzle pieces to form a 2024 NFL mock draft.

I like to use the NFL Draft props released by sportsbooks for two reasons: (1) sportsbooks aren’t in the business of providing hot takes, since they’re taking money on their “predictions;” and (2) I have been able to find holes in their NFL Draft odds (also read as “betting opportunities”) or major differences in the odds from one sportsbook to another.

In crafting this mock draft, I do consider all of the NFL Draft betting odds, including but not limited to: draft position over/unders, first player taken at each playing position, odds to be taken with a specific pick, odds to be a top five/ten/32 pick, total players selected at each playing position, total players selected from each college conference, odds on the playing position of each team’s first pick, and odds on a team drafting a specific player. However, I do not weigh all of these props the same. I give major preference to the NFL Draft props where you can bet both sides, or every possible outcome, as well as the props with the least juice/vig. (Basically, draft position over/unders get weighted the heaviest, while juiced-up props like “which team will draft [player name],” or “odds to be a top five/ten pick,” where you can only bet “yes,” are not considered as heavily.)

Now that you know my method, and I know you’re not going to get mad at me for how dumb certain picks / projected trades look (because you’ll take it out on the sportsbooks instead), let’s dive into the sportsbooks’ 2024 NFL mock draft:

2024 NFL First-Round Mock Draft

Pick Team Player Drafted
1 Chicago Bears (from CAR) Caleb Williams (QB)
2 Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels (QB)
3 New England Patriots Drake Maye (QB)
4 Arizona Cardinals Marvin Harrison Jr (WR)
5 Minnesota Vikings (from LAC)* JJ McCarthy (QB)
6 New York Giants Malik Nabers (WR)
7 Tennessee Titans Joe Alt (OT)
8 Indianapolis Colts (from ATL)** Rome Odunze (WR)
9 Chicago Bears Taliese Fuaga (OT)
10 Denver Broncos (from NYJ)*** Dallas Turner (EDGE)
11 Los Angeles Chargers (from MIN)* Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT)
12 New York Jets (from DEN)*** Brock Bowers (TE)
13 Las Vegas Raiders JC Latham (OT)
14 New Orleans Saints Troy Fautanu (OT)
15 Atlanta Falcons (from IND)** Quinyon Mitchell (CB)
16 Seattle Seahawks Byron Murphy II (DL)
17 Los Angeles Rams (from JAX)+ Laiatu Latu (EDGE)
18 Cincinnati Bengals Graham Barton (OL)
19 Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)+ Terrion Arnold (CB)
20 Pittsburgh Steelers Brian Thomas Jr (WR)
21 Miami Dolphins Jared Verse (EDGE)
22 Philadelphia Eagles Cooper DeJean (CB)
23 Los Angeles Chargers (from MIN)* Adonai Mitchell (WR)
24 Dallas Cowboys Amarius Mims (OT)
25 Green Bay Packers Tyler Guyton (OT)
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chop Robinson (EDGE)
27 Arizona Cardinals (from HOU) Nate Wiggins (CB)
28 Buffalo Bills Xavier Worthy (WR)
29 Detroit Lions Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB)
30 Baltimore Ravens Jordan Morgan (OT)
31 Arizona Cardinals (from SF)++ Darius Robinson (DL)
32 Los Angeles Chargers (from KC)+++ Jackson Powers-Johnson (C)

Before I dive into the places where I had trouble fitting the puzzle pieces together, here’s a breakdown of the NFL Draft trades I have manufactured to try and satisfy as many NFL Draft odds as possible. To be clear, I hate many of these projected trades and do not believe any of them have a chance of happening. Again, blame the sportsbooks!

* = projected trade between the Vikings and Chargers, where the Vikings give up the 11th and 23rd-overall selections for the 5th-overall pick, a third-round pick, and a fifth-round pick from the Chargers

** = projected trade between the Falcons and Colts, where Indianapolis gives up the 15th-overall pick and potentially their second-round pick for the 8th-overall selection

*** = projected trade between the Broncos and Jets, where Denver sends the 12th-overall pick, a fourth-round pick, and fifth-round pick for the 10th-overall pick

+ = projected trade between the Rams and Jaguars, where LA sends the 19th-overall pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick for the 17th-overall pick

++ = projected trade between the 49ers and Cardinals, where Arizona sends their second-round pick (35th-overall) and two fifth-round picks for the 31st-overall pick

+++ = projected trade between the Chargers and Chiefs, where LA sends their second-round pick (37th-overall) and two 2025 Day 3 picks for the 32nd-overall pick 

I especially despise the Broncos-Jets projected trade, as well as the final two for the 31st and 32nd picks. But the picks wouldn’t have made sense if those teams stayed put. Now let’s get into the toughest parts of piecing this mock together / the betting opportunities:

NFL Draft Predictions & Betting Opportunities Based on Mock Draft

Let me start this by disclosing the more important NFL Draft odds that I had to go against in forming this mock draft:

  1. The odds favor over 4.5 QBs being selected in the first round, with odds as short as -200 at DraftKings, but as long as -135 at Caesars. I went against this one, and only have four being selected, since both Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr’s respective draft position over/unders favor them going over 32.5. I had to choose between breaking the QB over/under or the OL over/under, and the OL placed in my mock all had better odds to be a first-round pick than either of those two QBs. (If you want to bet the under on QBs selected in the first round, DraftKings has the best odds to do so at +160.)
  2. NFL Draft odds favor over 5.5 players from the Big Ten being taken in the first round, but I only went with five. This could have been satisfied by swapping Jackson Powers-Johnson for Jer’Zhan Newton at the 32nd pick, but then I’d be going against very heavy odds of more than 9.5 OL being taken in the first round. The odds of Big Ten players going over 5.5 was the least favorable of all the conference total props.
  3. Jer’Zhan Newton’s draft position over/under is set at 32.5 with the under pretty heavily favored at -175. Caesars is the only online sportsbook listing an over/under for Newton right now – Circa opened him at 18.5 and a few notable NFL bettors hammered his over – but DraftKings also has him at -225 to be a first-round pick. Though his odds to be a first-round pick are slightly better than Powers-Johnson’s at DraftKings, FanDuel gives JPJ better odds to go in the first round. Plus, trying to satisfy Newton’s over/under odds would have resulted in me going against a couple others that are more favorable.

Now let me quickly disclose the players who appear in my NFL mock draft but do not have draft position over/unders:

  • Caleb Williams – he’s going to be the first-overall selection, so no need to open this prop. He’s -2000 to go first.
  • Jayden Daniels – he is pretty heavily favored to be the second QB off the board as well as the second-overall pick. No over/under for him, though.
  • Drake Maye – he is the favorite to be the third-overall pick, but not by a big margin. No sportsbook has opened an over/under for him yet, and I’m not sure we will see one. I have my own opinion on this that I’ll discuss later on.
  • Marvin Harrison Jr – he is favored to be the fourth-overall pick as well as the first non-QB off the board. But no over/under has been made available.
  • Malik Nabers – he is favored to be the second WR off the board, but no over/under is available at this time.
  • Xavier Worthy – he is given as short as -250 odds to be selected in the first-round, but no over/under is available. 

And now let me walk you through the most notable difficulties in placing these pieces and/or the differences in NFL Draft odds from one sportsbook to another:

Taliese Fuaga

Fuaga has the second-best odds to be the first OL drafted, and the best odds to be the second OL drafted, both by a significant margin. Caesars has Fuaga at -120 to go under 13.5 and ESPN Bet at -125. But DraftKings has him -120 to go over 13.5; you can get -110 on the under. I chose to satisfy the under 13.5, which was favored by two books versus one, not to mention DraftKings’ odds are pretty close to split, and have Fuaga going ninth to the Bears.

But here’s where things started looking weird: both JC Latham and Olu Fashanu are heavily favored to go under 14.5. Even Troy Fautanu is heavily favored to go under 15.5. So, DraftKings’ over/under for Fuaga is either off, or they’re potentially onto something here, which would open up some betting opportunities for the 2nd/3rd OL selected.

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Olu Fashanu

This is a betting opportunity due to two sportsbooks offering different lines – and a problem in my mock. Caesars has Fashanu going over 13.5 at -155 odds, but DraftKings has him under 14.5 at -205 odds. I could have satisfied both in having him selected at 14 by the Saints, but then I would have had to break Latham’s over/under (heavily favored to go under 14.5) or the odds favoring Fashanu to be the third OL drafted – he also has the third-best odds to be the first OL taken.

We also have the Titans and Chargers selecting before the 14th pick, both of whom are pretty desperate for a good offensive tackle. The odds heavily favor both of these teams addressing OL with their first pick in the draft as well.

So, I satisfied the more favorable odds at DraftKings and have Fashanu going 11th to the Chargers. I have taken the under 13.5 on Fashanu’s draft position at Caesars. However, you could try to middle these two lines and would win both bets if he is taken 14th.

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Terrion Arnold

DraftKings favors Arnold going over 15.5 with -120 odds and Caesars favors him under 16.5 with -130 odds. Like the Fashanu case above, I could have satisfied both of these lines by having Arnold go 16th to the Seahawks. But if I did that, it would result in me either: (1) disrupting Byron Murphy II’s over/under, which heavily favors him under 16.5; (2) facilitating even more trades than I already had to; (3) going against the odds heavily favoring Quinyon Mitchell being the first CB taken; (4) going against one of those OL’s over/unders mentioned above, or (5) going against the heavy odds favoring Laiatu Latu going under 18.5.

I sided with DraftKings’ odds here and kept it a little simpler, having Arnold go 19th to the Jags after they traded back a couple spots.

Cooper DeJean

Every sportsbook favors DeJean going over 22.5, but I slotted him in at 22 to the Eagles. I originally had the Eagles taking Graham Barton, but then his line shifted from under 23.5 to now under 21.5. The odds on which position the Eagles will take with their first pick heavily favor either corner or offensive line, so DeJean makes sense in that regard. Once again, I was faced with either going against this prop or facilitating more trades due to team needs. (I didn’t think we’d see Jackson Powers-Johnson come off the board this early, and his over/under favors him over 31.5 anyways.)

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And finally, here are a couple of those bold takes I teased earlier:

  1. I will be keeping my eyes open for any Drake Maye NFL Draft props. I feel there’s a reason they aren’t open and that’s because sportsbooks have no idea what’s going to happen with that third-overall pick. I don’t believe the Patriots roster is ready to invest that type of draft capital into a QB when they have so many other holes on the roster. I also don’t think Minnesota went and acquired a second first-round pick to only move up to the fifth-overall pick, risking someone else jumping them and taking their guy at four. I think the Vikings move up to three and they have been heavily linked to JJ McCarthy. If this is the case, we might see Maye slide, potentially all the way to the Broncos/Raiders or beyond.
  2. Rome Odunze’s over/under has been bouncing back-and-forth for the last week. His line opened at 9.5 with the over slightly favored, then moved to 8.5 with the over more heavily favored. Now he still sits at 8.5 but the under is picking up steam and is as short as -165. If we listen to all of these odds, then seven of the first eight picks are going to be quarterbacks or wide receivers. I don’t foresee that happening when you consider which teams hold those picks and how deep the WR position is in this draft class. I know I have the Colts moving up to satisfy the Odunze betting line, but I think that would be a terrible move for them. I like the over on Odunze’s line.
  3. Dallas Turner’s over/under is set at 9.5 with the over favored. I really like the under. Atlanta is desperate for some pass-rush help on the edge and Turner is viewed as the consensus top edge rusher in the draft. He is also the odds-on favorite to be the first defensive player taken. If Atlanta does end up trading down, or just passes on him, I don’t think Chicago would be able to at nine. The best under odds are at DraftKings (+110).
  4. Brock Bowers got locked into the 12th pick in my mock thanks to him being heavily favored to go under 12.5 but also over 11.5. I understand why we’re seeing this too – I think it’s either the Jets at ten or he slides. The Broncos currently hold the 12th pick and with the laundry list of holes Sean Payton’s roster has, one of which is QB, I can’t see him investing this type of draft capital in a tight end. I did setup a trade for the Broncos to move up a couple spots, but I don’t really agree with that. Denver needs to keep as many picks as possible to plug up more holes. Though it may not be the smartest move based on the salary cap, Bowers would likely satisfy the Jets’ need for both a tight end and wide receiver depth, and also keeps Aaron Rodgers excited. I’m taking the under 11.5 at +140 odds with Caesars.
  5. I’m giving over 6.5 wide receivers in the first round at +185 odds (ESPN Bet) a long look right now. We could see Tee Higgins and/or Brandon Aiyuk traded before the first round is over, which would open up significant WR holes on the Bengals and 49ers, respectively. Yes, those trades could fill a hole with a team who we expect to take a wide receiver, but there are also some teams we don’t expect to take a WR in the first round who could use help at the position. The Chiefs at 32 are very intriguing to me now that we expect Rashee Rice to be disciplined by the NFL, and there is no shortage of good wide receivers available. It wouldn’t surprise me if a team fell in love with a prospect like Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, or Malachi Corley and decided to just pull the trigger.
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