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The 4 Best Win Total Bets for 2020 NFL Season

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 3:59 PM PST

DeShaun Watson waving
Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) waves to fans as he leaves the field after an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, Dec. 27, 2020, in Houston. The Bengals won 37-31. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
  • Are the Houston Texans getting overlooked after a disastrous offseason?
  • Can Sam Darnold rescue a seemingly doomed New York Jets season?
  • Answering those questions and more as we list the best win total bets heading into the 2020 NFL season

This week is the last opportunity to get win total bets in before the start of what is sure to be a strange 2020 NFL season. If you’ve held off on placing bets until now, that was a wise move. On top of the usual parade of devastating training camp injuries and surprise trades, we also had a handful of teams handicapped by COVID-19 opt outs.

Now that the dust has settled, it seems like a good time to take one last gander at the NFL win totals for 2020. Here’s four bets that jump out to me.

4. Houston Texans Go Over 7.5 Wins

Team Over Odds at FanDuel Under Odds at FanDuel
Houston Texans Over 7.5 (-105) Under 7.5 (-115)

All odds taken Sept 3

Deshaun Watson.

That’s argument number 1, 2, 3 and 4 for why you should be scared of betting the Texans Under this season. Boasting a 24-13 record across his first three seasons, all Watson knows is winning, and he’s still trending upward.

A tepid response to the Texans Over is understandable: they have a lackluster defense and made the worst trades of the offseason. But while GM Bill O’Brien may have no idea what he’s doing, head coach Bill O’Brien is still pretty effective. Since arriving in Houston in 2014, the Texans have had one losing season: the same number of times they made the playoffs with teams led by Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer. They also won the division last year with a defense that ranked 26th in DVOA.

Houston has the 10th toughest schedule, but after including a couple of gimmes against the tanking Jaguars, it’s not hard to see this team finding another six wins to hit the Over.

3. New York Jets Land Under 6.5

Team Over Odds at FanDuel Under Odds at FanDuel
New York Jets Over 6.5 (+110) Under 6.5 (-130)

Big Bad Tom Brady is finally out of the way. The Jets path is finally clear. And instead, they’re retooling for about the dozenth time this millennium.

CJ Mosley opted out. Jamal Adams was traded. Defense was a strength of this team in 2019 and suddenly Gregg Williams has a lot less talent to work with in 2020.

If you’re expecting the Jets offense to pick up the slack this season, you clearly haven’t seen their receiving corps. In a season where Gang Green needs to figure out whether Sam Darnold and Adam Gase are going to be a part of the franchise’s future, the Jets might be looking to Josh Malone and Jehu Chesson to make plays on third downs.

The Jets are one of the likelier teams to hit their Under according to SBD’s Win Probabilities and Gase is a top-three candidate to the first coach fired this year. Another train-wreck season in New York seems inevitable.

2. Seattle Seahawks Cook Up Over 9.5 Wins

Team Over Odds at DraftKings Under Odds at DraftKings
Seattle Seahawks Over 9.5 (+110) Under 9.5 (-130)

I was a little stunned to see the Seahawks Over isn’t getting much action, considering this team has fallen short of double-digit wins just once since 2011.

Nearly all of Seattle’s 11 wins last year came by the skin of their teeth, going an absurd 9-2 in one-score games. While that’s a stat that screams Seattle is due for regression, keep in mind why they’re in so many close games late: Pete Carroll tends to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands in the first three quarters.

The “Let Russ Cook” movement seems to be getting through to Carroll, so Seattle shouldn’t need as much late-game magic as last year. They also shouldn’t be falling behind as often: adding Jamal Adams to an already strong secondary should help the Seahawks bring the boom back to their Cover 3 defense.

In a year that will favor continuity, especially early in the season, look for one of the NFL’s most stable franchises to come out hot and clear their 9.5 wins.

1. New Orleans Saints Soar Over 10.5 Wins

Team Over Odds at FanDuel Under Odds at FanDuel
New Orleans Saints Over 10.5 (Even) Under 10.5 (-120)

Again, continuity is key this season. Drew Brees and Sean Payton have been working together longer than any other head coach and quarterback in the NFL and they’re coming into this season with another loaded roster hungry for a Super Bowl.

The Saints already boasted one of the league’s best passing attacks when everyone knew the ball was going to Michael Thomas. Now with Emmanuel Sanders coming on board as a legitimate number-two option, this offense should become even more potent.

Defensively, Malcolm Jenkins’ return bolsters another loaded secondary on a defense that has finished top 12 in DVOA each of the last three seasons.

The only real concern with the Saints in 2020 is Brees’ age. Considering their top challenger in the division has a QB even older than 41, I’m not going to start age-shaming the Saints signal-caller just yet.

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