- The Kansas City Chiefs are preparing to take on the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 54
- The Chiefs only Super Bowl came 50 years ago in Super Bowl 4
- Here’s 50 reasons to bet them to win it this year
We are just three days away from Super Bowl 54 between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers – kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm ET on Sunday, February 2nd.
As you’ve probably heard at least 50 times over the last ten days, the Chiefs have not won, or even played in, a Super Bowl since 1970, when they beat the Vikings in Super Bowl 4. That was 50 freaking years ago!
While some have already locked in their bets for the big game – 67% of which took the Chiefs – many others are still unsure of who they’re betting. If you’re one of those people, prepare to be sold on betting Kansas City once you read these 50 reasons they’re going to win.
(And if you’re an early bettor who took the Niners, you might not want to put yourself through the pain of reading all these rational, compelling, well grounded reasons why your bet is going to lose …)
50 Reasons to Bet the Chiefs
1) The Chiefs are favored to win – it just doesn’t get any simpler …
2) KC is 12-3 straight up when favored this season (including playoffs) – I would understand if you felt you didn’t need to read any further.
3) Favorites were 170-95-1 straight up this season – sportsbooks just generally get it right. Why fight this fact?
4) Since Wild Card Weekend concluded, favorites are 5-1 straight up – as the games get more important, the cream rises to the top.
5) The Chiefs actually allowed fewer points than the Niners did this season – San Francisco’s defense has been lauded all season. But why aren’t we hearing anything about KC’s defense? They only allowed 308 points this regular season, whereas SF’s has allowed 310.
6) Patrick Mahomes is a far (FAR!) better quarterback than Jimmy Garoppolo – with the spread for Super Bowl 54 being KC -1 (or KC -1.5, depending where you look), it’s expected we’re in for a close game. Do you know who wins close games? Great quarterbacks.
7) Mobile QBs are the Niners’ kryptonite – In the five games San Francisco has played against mobile quarterbacks this season – Seattle (Russell Wilson) twice, Arizona (Kyler Murray) twice, and Baltimore (Lamar Jackson), they gave up 23.8 points per game, compared to just 17.4 PPG in their other 11 regular season games.
8) KC’s offense forces their opponents to abandon the running game – San Francisco leans on a strong ground game, but Kansas City just showed us in the AFC Championship how hard their offense makes it on a team to stick to their power running game. Derrick Henry was averaging just under 160 yards per game on the ground in his previous eight games entering the AFC Championship. The bruising back got off to a good start against KC, tallying 62 yards on 15 carries in the first half. But with KC’s offense not letting up, he only saw four carries in the second half, which he turned into seven yards.
9) The team who wins the turnover battle in the Super Bowl is 37-5 – the Chiefs committed the third-fewest turnovers in the NFL this season and had a +8 turnover differential, while the 49ers were middle of the pack in giveaways and only had a +4 turnover differential.
10) Andy Reid has never blown a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl – what!? He hasn’t!
If I haven’t won you over already, this next one is sure to have you running to a sportsbook
11) Mahomes’ “long lost Granny” is bringing him good luck – while Jimmy Garoppolo is only worried about winning over younger women, Mahomes has fans of all ages. There’s no way he lets this sweet old lady down on Sunday.
12) Mahomes has never lost to the 49ers – he’s only 1-0, but shhhhh!
13) Robbie Gould has already lost a Super Bowl in Miami – he was the kicker for the Bears when they lost to the Colts in Super Bowl 41. Why did I have to pick 50 reasons …?
14) Jimmy G is 0-2 against the Chiefs – he came in for cleanup duty in Week 4 of 2014 when the Pats were getting killed, and also lost to them in Week 3 of 2018, the same game he tore his ACL.
15) Jimmy G has never beaten an AFC West team – the two aforementioned games against the Chiefs are the only two he’s played. At least I’m honest, right?
16) When Patrick Mahomes starts, the Chiefs are 10-2 when allowing less than 200 passing yards – Jimmy G has totaled 208 passing yards in his two games this postseason.
Can Jimmy G outplay Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl?
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 28, 2020
17) The Niners run defense isn’t that good – they allow 112.6 yards per game on the ground, which is 17th in the NFL. And when the Chiefs run for more than 100 yards in a game this season, they’re 9-0 (including playoffs).
18) This white jersey trend has to start evening out – teams wearing white have won 13 of the last 15 Super Bowls. Kansas City will be wearing red this year. Now that’s good handicapping!
19) Preparation time is key – teams who win a Super Bowl, and then don’t appear in another one for at least 29 years, are undefeated in that potential drought-breaking appearance (Packers won in 1967 and didn’t appear again until 1996, which they won, and the Colts won in 1970 as the Baltimore Colts and then didn’t appear again until 2006, which they won as the Indianapolis Colts.) The Chiefs won Super Bowl 4 and are making their first Super Bowl appearance since.
20) The Niners are 2-0 in Super Bowls played in Miami – they’re due to lose one!
21) The AFC has won four of the last five Super Bowls – it’s obvious they’re just the better conference …
22) Mahomes doesn’t mind getting rid of the ball quickly – Mahomes posted a 104.9 passer rating this season when getting rid of the ball in less than 2.5 seconds, the fourth-best rating in the NFL according to PFF
23) KC protects their QB – PFF says the Chiefs offensive line has a 42% advantage against the Niners defensive line when it comes to pass protection. The Chiefs only allowed Mahomes to be sacked 25 times this regular season, tied for the third-fewest in the NFL.
Mitchell Schwartz this postseason
Pass blocking snaps: 90
Pressures allowed: 1 pic.twitter.com/NtU3ejRJ4n
— PFF (@PFF) January 24, 2020
24) Mahomes doesn’t mind the pressure – Patrick Mahomes posted the third-best passer rating in the NFL this season when under pressure. So bring on the rush.
25) Patrick Mahomes likes getting sacked – going one step further, the Chiefs QB is 9-4 in his career when he’s sacked at least twice in a game; the Niners average 3.2 sacks per game this season (including playoffs).
26) The Chiefs can rush the passer too – PFF gives the Chiefs defensive line a 17% advantage vs the Niners offensive line when it comes to pass protection.
Was there anyway Chris Jones was going to miss the AFC Championship? Nope. pic.twitter.com/1pq9w1TJV5
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 20, 2020
27) KC isn’t terrible against the run, either – San Francisco’s offensive line isn’t given much of an advantage over the Chiefs defensive line in run blocking: PFF lists it at just 4%.
28) Andy Reid will pick on Emmanuel Moseley – Richard Sherman didn’t shadow Davante Adams in the NFC Championship (he followed him on a handful of plays) and doesn’t expect to move much from his usual left cornerback position against the Chiefs. If the Niners don’t move him, KC will leave Demarcus Robinson over there with him and pick on Emmanuel Moseley and K’Waun Williams on the other side with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
29) KC has too much speed – even if Sherman does decide to shadow Hill, he won’t be able to handle the speed. The same goes for the entire San Francisco defense.
30) San Francisco might plan to pass – the Niners’ biggest advantage on offense comes in the passing game, as the Chiefs’ DBs haven’t been great in coverage this year. But getting into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes when Jimmy Garoppolo is your quarterback is like bringing a knife to a gun fight.
31) Mahomes is playing the best football of his career right now – Patrick Mahomes is red hot right now, having thrown for 615 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the postseason, good for a 131.5 passer rating. He does what he wants, when he wants.
The man is a big play MACHINE.
— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2020
32) There are three parts to every game – offense and defense are great, but special teams certainly play a major role in deciding football games. The Chiefs have a major edge in special teams. According to PFF, KC’s special teams was the best in the league this season, whereas SF’s ranked just 19th.
33) Chris Jones is a game-wrecker – Chiefs DL Chris Jones was the second-most productive interior pass rusher in the NFL among players with at least 110 pass rush snaps, behind only Aaron Donald. He lines up against a bit of a weak interior consisting of Laken Tomlinson, Ben Garland, and Mike Person, all of whom received a pass blocking grade south of 69 this season at PFF.
The @Chiefs pass rush was most effective when DT Chris Jones was on the field—
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 19, 2020
34) Garoppolo crumbles under pressure – his passer rating drops to 74.3 when being pressured and his TD:INT ratio is 1:1.
35) Frank Clark is heating up – the edge rusher has six sacks in his last five games and 11 in his last ten games.
36) The AFC likes close games – the AFC has won nine of the 15 Super Bowls where the spread is 3 or less. Super Bowl 54’s spread is hovering around KC -1.
37) KC doesn’t get rattled by an early score – The Chiefs are 8-0 this season when they allow the opponent to score first – SF has scored first in 12 of their 18 games this season, including each of their last three.
Texans Drives Since Being Up 24-0
Turnover On Downs (fake punt) ❌
Missed FG ❌
Turnover On Downs ❌
Turnover On Downs ❌
Turnover On Downs ❌
Chiefs Drives Since Going Down 24-0
— Wager Street (@WagerStreet) January 12, 2020
38) The Niners struggle to punch it in – SF has scored a touchdown on just 54.3% of their red zone trips this season (including playoffs), which is 12th-worst in the league.
39) San Francisco’s defense doesn’t play well with their back against the wall – the Niners have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns on 61.4% of their red zone trips this season, which is eighth-worst in the NFL.
40) When Tevin Coleman goes, so do the Niners – San Francisco is just 3-2 this season when Tevin Coleman receives five carries or less, and the RB is listed as questionable for the Super Bowl with a shoulder dislocation.
41) Building a champion comes in steps – only one other team in the history of the NFL has gone from 4-12 to winning the Super Bowl the next season: the St Louis Rams in 1999, also known as the Greatest Show on Turf. The 49ers are just the third team to reach the Super Bowl after a 4-12 season. Don’t go giving the Browns hope for 2020.
— Cam Inman (@CamInman) January 29, 2020
42) Mahomes keeps games close – the Chiefs have never lost a game by more than seven points when Mahomes starts. And in a tight game, I know which QB I’m siding with.
43) Bill Vinovich likes the Chiefs – KC is 10-6 in games when Vinovich is part of the officiating crew, the Niners are just 6-6. Vinovich will be the head official in Super Bowl 54.
44) The Chiefs are not just Patrick Mahomes – KC had six players named to the AFC’s Pro Bowl roster (Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Mecole Hardman); the Niners only had four named to the NFC. That’s a sound argument, right?
45) The forecast is calling for a dry game – it’s expected to be 73° and mainly sunny during the day, dropping to 48° at night. Admittedly, I was ready to jump on the Niners when we were hearing it could be wet.
46) Andy Reid deserves a ring – what coach has taken more crap for underwhelming playoff performances, never running the damn ball, struggling to adjust at halftime, poor clock management, misusing timeouts, and moving on from veterans too early? (Did I miss anything?)
"I like dress codes, as long as it's Tommy Bahama … No speedos!"
Andy Reid, fashion icon. ? pic.twitter.com/0AOXkVbOkE
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 28, 2020
47) The Chiefs should have won it last year – once again, we watched the Patriots benefit from the lousy overtime rule in the NFL that doesn’t ensure both teams get to touch the ball. If KC got the ball first in overtime of the AFC Championship last year, they would have been taking on the Rams in Super Bowl 53.
48) Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive mastermind – remember when the Giants ruined the Patriots perfect season in Super Bowl 42? Steve Spagnuolo sure does. Why? Because he was the DC of the Giants defense, who held the second-highest scoring team in the history of the NFL to 14 points. This guy is coming in with a solid gameplan.
49) The older head coach has won seven of the last nine Super Bowls – Andy Reid is 61 years old, while Kyle Shanahan is just 40. “With age, comes wi(n)sdom” – Sascha Paruk – Matt McEwan
50) Fade Mattress Mack – Jim McIngvale (Mattress Mack) has become known for his large bets over the last few months. But he hasn’t won any of them! He lost $13M betting the Astros to win the World Series, $1M betting the Texans in the Divisional Round, and another $1M betting the Titans in the AFC Championship. That’s $2M he’s lost betting against the Chiefs in the playoffs. (He also lost $7M on a Super Bowl 48 promotion where he was siding with the Broncos.) He’s continuing to bet against KC as well, reportedly laying another $1M on the Niners to win Super Bowl 54. So while Mattress Mack continues to fade the Chiefs, we should all start fading him.
Ok, so maybe 50 was a bit of a stretch. At the very least, I hope you found some entertainment value in the 10-ish reasons I really had to work for.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.