Best Commanders vs Bears Same-Game Parlay for TNF
- Check out this three-leg Commanders vs Bears same-game parlay for tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup that pays +245
- How many passing yards will Carson Wentz and Justin Fields throw for? Can Washington eclipse 25 points?
- Our complete Commanders vs Bears Week 6 TNF same-game parlay, plus analysis can be found in the story below
Tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup to kick off Week 6 is the reason why sports betting exists. The Commanders (1-4, 0-2 away) face the Bears (2-3, 2-0 home) in a matchup with a painfully low 38-point total.
Offense is expected to be extremely tough to come by, a fact amplified by the injury status of Carson Wentz – more on him later.
The Commanders are currently favored by 1-point, but the majority of the spread tickets and ATS handle are backing Chicago; 63% of the ATS wagers in the Commanders vs Bears public betting splits are backing the home team, and fading Wentz is usually a recipe for success.
As a result, we’ve built a same-game parlay around an ugly Washington offensive performance. Check out the picks below.
Commanders vs Bears Same-Game Parlay
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carson Wentz Under 244.5 Passing Yards | -190 |
| Justin Fields Over 149.5 Passing Yards | -180 |
| Washington Commanders Under 24.5 Points | -320 |
| PARLAY ODDS | +245 |
Odds as of October 13th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings promo code where you can get up to a 100% profit boost on any SGP in Week 6.
This Washington-Chicago same-game parlay features only three legs, but still pays out +245 odds if it its. The SGP starts with a bet against Wentz’s arm, as he’s currently battling a meaningful injury.
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SGP Pick #1: Carson Wentz Under 244.5 Passing Yards
Wentz headlines the Commanders vs Bears injury report, thanks to a biceps tendon strain near his right shoulder. The injury was serious enough to put his status tonight in doubt earlier this week, but he’s since been given the green light to play through the pain.
#Commanders QB Carson Wentz is dealing with a biceps tendon strain suffered in last week’s loss to Tennessee, per sources.
Wentz is not 100%, but he’ll start tonight against the #Bears and then try to heal up with extra rest coming off the Thursday night game. pic.twitter.com/IOlRQrrlyU
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) October 13, 2022
Wentz is second in the NFL in passing attempts so far, and fifth in passing yards. Despite those numbers, his passing prop can be found for as short as 219.5 as of Thursday afternoon. We’re going to be a little more conservative and target under 244.5 passing yards, a number he’s failed to eclipse in two of his past three outings.
A bum throwing shoulder is reason enough to fade Wentz, but there are other factors working in favor of the under. Two of his main receiving weapons, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas, are both out, while Chicago has been competent against the pass.
Matt Eberfuls knows Carson Wentz as much as ANYONE. He coached against him all last year in practice/camp. Hopefully that leads to a gameplan attacking his weaknesses. Predicting a Jaylon Johnson INT tonight. #DaBears #Bears #BearDown
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) October 13, 2022
The Bears rank 15th in pass defense per DVOA, while stud corner Jaylon Johnson is back for this game after missing the last three contests. In his first two games, neither the 49ers or Packers chose to target a receiver in his coverage.
SGP Pick #2: Justin Fields Over 149.5 Passing Yards
Wentz has attempted 210 passes this season which is 122 more than Fields despite starting and finishing the same amount of games. Fields continues to look incredibly raw, but he’s at least shown signs of improvement over the past two weeks.
Cooper Kupp has as many receptions as Justin Fields has completions so far this season pic.twitter.com/wBOEYiSYZv
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 13, 2022
He’s thrown for an average 191 yards per game during that stretch and can certainly exceed 149.5 passing yards against this porous Commanders secondary. Washington’s pass defense ranks 29th per DVOA, and bottom-13 in pass rush productivity per PFF. That was enough to make him a featured name in the Commanders vs Bears player props.
SGP Pick #3: Washington Commanders Under 24.5 Points
Washington has failed to exceed this number in three consecutive games, averaging less than 12 points per outing. Wentz is banged up, while two of his main targets are down, but even when everyone was healthy the Commanders were still struggling.
Washington ranks 29th on offense per DVOA, and is the seventh lowest scoring team in the league. They’re turnover prone, ranking bottom-eight in giveaways, and have converted just 28.6% of their red zone trips into touchdowns since Week 2.
All eyes on us. pic.twitter.com/fOgzY6DXj1
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 13, 2022
Chicago on the other hand, has performed quite well at home. The Bears are 2-0 at Soldier Field this season, yielding an average of only 15 points per game. One of very own experts is backing Chicago in the Commanders vs Bears picks, and while we’re going to stop short of that, we will bank on them holding Washington below 25 points.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
