Broncos’ Bradley Chubb Falling Out of DROY Contention Entering Week 14
- Broncos rookie Bradley Chubb has recorded 10.0 sacks this season
- He only needs five more to break the rookie sack record
- Yet, his odds to win 2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year have taken a big hit after Week 13
With 3.0 sacks in his last four games, and 8.5 in his last seven, rookie OLB Bradley Chubb is closing in on Jevon Kearse’s record for most sacks by a rookie in NFL history – 14.5 back in 1999.
Chubb’s season total is up to 10.0, just 2.5 behind teammate Von Miller, and 6.5 behind the league-leader, Aaron Donald.
However, after a one-sack performance against the Bengals in Week 13, the fifth-overall pick from the 2018 NFL Draft has seen his Defensive Rookie of the Year odds take a hit.
2018 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Odds to win DROY |
|---|---|
| Derwin James | -180 |
| Darius Leonard | +150 |
| Leighton Vander Esch | +500 |
| Bradley Chubb | +1500 |
| Denzel Ward | +3000 |
Entering Week 13, Chubb was listed at +800, the third-best odds on the board. But now he not only sees Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch jump him, but his odds have faded to +1500.
Is Chubb Worth a Wager?
The movement in Chubb’s odds isn’t exactly reflective of anything he has done wrong on the field. He’s just up against stiff competition.
Derwin James, the favorite, seems to come up with some sort of game-changing play nearly every week. And he’s doing it while lining up all over the field and still doing all the little things right.
America, meet Derwin James.
(And RETWEET to give him your #ProBowlVote) pic.twitter.com/kPg7eNooNv
— Los Angeles Chargers (@Chargers) December 3, 2018
Meanwhile, Colts rookie Darius Leonard leads the NFL with 123 combined tackles, 17 clear of the next closest player.
So while Chubb is leading all rookies in sacks, it’s going to take something truly great to win this award.
Chubb’s Remaining Opponents
| Week | Team | Sacks Per Game Allowed |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers | 3.2 (27th) |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | 2.9 (21st) |
| 16 | Oakland Raiders | 3.2 (28th) |
| 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1.8 (6th) |
*Ranking 1st means you’ve allowed the fewest sacks per game
Looking to the Broncos’ remaining opponents, something truly great certainly isn’t out of the question for Chubb.
He’ll have the luxury of facing three of the worst offensive lines in football over the final four weeks, starting with the 49ers in Week 14.
.@astronaut out here doing his best @VonMiller impersonation. #ProBowlVote + Bradley Chubb pic.twitter.com/LDmRCjLYI1
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 2, 2018
If Chubb can get a couple on Sunday, his odds will quickly come back down to where they were before Week 13. And if he breaks Kearse’s rookie record, while closing the gap between him and Donald, the North Carolina State product will be right there with James and Leonard come voting time.
With Denver’s defense likely being forced to play overly aggressive, having to play without Chris Harris Jr, I expect Chubb to see plenty of 1v1 opportunities on the edge.
At +1500, a wager on Chubb offers a ton of value.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
