- Philip Rivers tries to finally get past Patriots
- Playoff Tom Brady undefeated at home since 2013
- Finding the three best prop bets for this tilt
The Los Angeles Chargers are going to have to outplay the NFL’s longest running dynasty – on their own turf, no less – if they want to get to the AFC Championship Game.
As always, the road to glory is going to have to go through Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, who haven’t lost a home playoff game since 2013.
LA gets their chance at Foxborough this Sunday at 1pm. Don’t miss the Chargers vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions, and here are a bevy of props you should consider before kickoff.
Prop #1: Philip Rivers vs Tom Brady (Passing Yards)
|Who will have more passing yards||Odds at BetOnline|
|Philip Rivers has more passing yards than Tom Brady||-122|
|Tom Brady has more passing yards than Philip Rivers||-122|
The playoffs haven’t been exactly great for Philip Rivers.
In 10 career games, he’s hit the 300-yard mark passing just once. That includes the Wild Card win over the Ravens, where he tossed for 160 yards, the third sub-200 yard game he’s posted.
— Pack Pride (@PackPride) January 7, 2019
Meanwhile, Brady’s last 11 games in the playoffs, which span the last four seasons, he’s failed to break 300 yards passing just twice.
The last time we saw him in the playoffs, he was coming off a 505-yard gem that ended in a loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
Brady answers back with a TD pass to Chris Hogan, 29-26 Eagles.pic.twitter.com/Ulj1DhapHp
— LeadingNFL (@LeadingNFL) February 5, 2018
While Rivers will have plenty of incentive to show out – a stinging loss in the AFC Title game in 2007 to these Patriots (while playing on a torn ACL, no less) remains a massive what-if to his career – his team is the more talented unit top to bottom.
Sunday's forecast calls for a high of 29 degrees and a low of 18 in Foxboro. No snow, just cold.
Philip Rivers is 1-3 in his career in games played in sub-30 degree temperatures. Tom Brady is 23-4.
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) January 10, 2019
Brady will be playing catch up all game, forcing the Pats into pass mode for long stretches.
The Pick: Tom Brady has MORE passing yards than Philip Rivers (-122)
Prop #2: Chargers vs Patriots Shortest TD Scored
|What will be the distance of the shortest TD scored?||Odds at MyBookie|
|Over 1.5 yards||-105|
|Under 1.5 yards||-125|
Despite being banged up last week, Melvin Gordon and the Chargers found themselves deep in opponent territory, punching it in from the goal line.
— Sports Notes (@TheSportsNotes) January 6, 2019
Gordon is an effective weapon for Los Angeles in the red zone, now accounting for 11 TDs from 11 yards and in.
During the last few plays of the Chargers-Chiefs was a pass interference call on pass at back of end zone against Chiefs. The more convincing physical act by far though was the non-call two hand push off by Mike Williams that kept the defender from his right to defend the pass.
— eddie rainer (@yougotime31) December 15, 2018
This bet is based on the Chargers being able to move the ball effectively, and their strong receiving corps hoping to rope the Pats into an endzone penalty that would move the ball to the 1-yard line.
— Roto Street Journal (@RotoStJournal) December 9, 2018
It’s also based on the fact the the Chargers allowed 13 such short-run TDs on the year.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have punched it in from the 1-yard line eight times this year, with their defense allowing four TDs.
Expect the trend to continue in this one.
The Pick: There will be a touchdown scored from UNDER 1.5 yards away (-125)
Prop #3: Chargers Total Sacks vs Patriots
|How many times will Chargers sack Tom Brady?||Odds at MyBookie|
|Over 2.0 sacks||-110|
|Under 2.0 sacks||-120|
The Chargers were in a tie for 19th in the regular season in sacks, but don’t get it twisted: they are far more dominant than the numbers show.
The return of Joey Bosa in Week 11 marked a change in the Chargers pass rush.
Joey Bosa against your guard=sackpic.twitter.com/3JUI3Svr5h
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 6, 2019
They recorded just 38 sacks in the regular season, but 21 of those came in the final seven games. And did they ever put it all together in a thrashing of the Ravens. Led by Melvin Ingram, LA looked unblockable up front.
#Chargers Melvin Ingram with another sack. He's been the best player on the field today. Dominant vs run and pass.
7 Tackles, 2 TFL, 2 Sacks, 2 QB Hits pic.twitter.com/aVI6UsQ4h8
— Steve Frederick (@_SteveFrederick) January 6, 2019
Much has been made about defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s seven-DB set that saw the field on all but one defensive snap last week.
While that was mainly to offset the Ravens running game, it still might be effective in jumping Brady and the Patriots’ short pass game with Julian Edelman and James White.
— ESPNBoston (@ESPNBoston) January 7, 2019
New England will want to play with a lead in this one, as the Chargers have the pieces to get that pass rush home.
The Pick: The Chargers will record OVER 2.0 sacks against the Patriots (-110)