Colts’ 2019 Win Total Drops to 6.5 After Luck Announces Retirement
- The Indianapolis Colts were 10-6 last season
- Andrew Luck was second in the NFL last season with touchdowns (39) and fifth in passing yards (4,593)
- Jacoby Brissett played in 16 games for the Colts in 2017 and the team went 4-12, although it was a very different team back then
The NFL world was shocked when Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement on Saturday night. The Colts, who went to the second round of the playoffs last season, were among the favorites to win the AFC. Their regular season win total has tumbled down to 6.5. Is this an overreaction and if so, is there value with the over?
2019 Indianapolis Colts Win Total
| How Many Games Will The Colts Win In 2019? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 6.5 | -115 |
| Under 6.5 | -115 |
*Odds taken 08/25/19.
Luck Shockingly Announces Retirement
The Colts had been clandestine regarding Luck’s status all offseason as he appeared to be battling some kind of injury. The assumption, for the most part, was that he’d be back for Week 1. However, as we moved through training camp and preseason games, and Luck had been sidelined, concerns started to mount.
On Saturday, Luck ended the saga when he announced his retirement. The Colts were hosting a preseason game at the time and the team was booed when they left the field. Staff were visibly stunned and now the team is left to pick up the pieces on the eve of the regular season.
Colts Win Total Drops to 6.5
As a result of the news, the Colts futures have tumbled all over the place. They’re down to +6000 to win the Super Bowl, +3200 to win the AFC, +700 to win the AFC South and their regular season NFL win totals mark has dipped from 9.5 to 6.5. That’s a huge drop.
Brissett Becomes Starter
Jacoby Brissett now steps into the starting lineup with Chad Kelly serving as the backup. Brissett is entering his fourth season in the NFL and started for the Colts in the 2017 season when Luck missed the season with a shoulder injury. Brissett had 3,098 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing 58.8% of his passes.
It’s important to note that things were very different back then as the Colts were a bad team. Chuck Pagano was still head coach, the offensive line wasn’t nearly as good and the weapons at wide receiver and running back were scant.
Also, Brissett was acquired by the Colts on September 2 – right before the start of the regular season – so he didn’t exactly have time to get acclimated to the playbook, build chemistry with the team and go through workouts. He was thrown into the fire.
Luck Was the Glue
The issue with handicapping the Colts regular season win total is because Luck was the glue on this team. He elevated almost every aspect. He led the passing game, helped the ground game, covered for the offensive line and since the offense was more effective with him in the lineup, the defense played less and had to do less.
Luck was a special talent; we don’t exactly know what Brissett is but he’s not expected to be that good. So how good is he? Is he a game manager or a serviceable starter? Can the rest of the Colts cover for him? The offensive line is decent and there are receivers. The defense is decent too.
But it could also all go south very quickly. The Colts ground game looked good with Luck there but without the threat of a pass, nobody will really be concerned with it. And if that puts more pressure on the passing game, Brissett will have to deliver or this will be a bad team.
What’s The Best Bet?
The Colts are a well-coached team with a good supporting cast but this type of loss is a big shock to the system. It’s going to deflate the team big-time.
My other concern here is the schedule. They start with two tough road games at the Los Angeles Chargers and Tennessee Titans. Then they come home to play the Atlanta Falcons and Oakland Raiders before visiting the Kansas City Chiefs. I don’t see more than one, maybe two wins for them there.
Even so, this is a well-coached team with a good supporting cast, and the schedule gets easier from there. I see them finishing with about seven wins, although I’m not overly confident about it. If Brissett is better than we’ve seen in the past, they could get over. If he’s the same, they’ll be a four or five-win team.
I think the Colts will be a solid bet against the spread – including Week 1 at +7 – as they’ll be overlooked. I think they’ll keep games close but I have a good read on how many wins they’ll finish with.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
