- The Indianapolis Colts are big favorites in their Week 1 game against Jacksonville
- Facing the retooling Vikings at home in Week 2, it could be a while before Indy gets their first loss
- We examine the odds for when Indy will get their first win and loss of the 2020 NFL season
After their first season sans Andrew Luck fizzled down the stretch, the Indianapolis Colts have brought in some big name reinforcements to get them back to the promised land.
With their 2020 NFL win total set around 8.5, the Colts are projected to be in the mix for a playoff spot in the AFC. But with a future Hall of Fame QB and a stud defensive lineman joining a squad with a top-10 rushing attack and loads of talent on defense, Indy looks to have a very high ceiling this year.
In fact, just looking their schedule, there’s not too many games that look like “guaranteed loses.” So which opponent will deliver their first loss of 2020?
Odds When Indianapolis Colts Will Get First Win/Loss
|Week||Opponent||Spread||Odds to be Colts First Win||Odds to be Colts First Loss|
|Week 1||at Jacksonville||-7||-300||+240|
|Week 2||vs Minnesota||-3||+480||+170|
|Week 3||vs New York Jets||-7||+800||+600|
|Week 4||at Chicago||+1.5||+4000||+400|
|Week 5||at Cleveland||+1||+5000||+1000|
|Week 6||vs Cincinnati||-9||+6000||+4000|
|Week 8||at Detroit||-1.5||+10000||+2500|
|Week 9||vs Baltimore||+2.5||+50000||+3500|
|Week 10||at Tennessee||+2.5||+100000||+8000|
|Week 11||vs Green Bay||-2.5||+125000||+20000|
|Week 12||vs Tennessee||-3||+150000||+25000|
|Week 13||at Houston||+2||+200000||+30000|
|Week 14||at Las Vegas||-2||+250000||+50000|
|Week 15||vs Houston||-4.5||+250000||+100000|
|Week 16||at Pittsburgh||+2.5||+500000||+50000|
|Week 17||vs Jacksonville||-10.5||+250000||+250000|
Perfect Season Odds
|Team||Odds to go 16-0||Odds to go 0-16|
Odds taken May 29
Can Colts Reverse Week 1 Curse?
Philip Rivers couldn’t have a more welcoming start to his Indianapolis career, facing the easiest slate of games in the 2020 NFL SOS rankings. To kick things off, they’ll travel to Jacksonville to take on the presumptive doormat of the upcoming year. But Colts fans won’t be taking this matchup lightly, considering their team hasn’t opened a season 1-0 since 2013.
Rivers, for his part, hasn’t been much better on opening weekend. A Week 1 OT victory over these very Colts was just his second season-opening win of the last seven years.
Looking at this prop, there’s no real case to be made betting the Colts’ first win to come over Jacksonville, considering Indy is getting the same -300 on the moneyline. The same could be said about their first loss, if you think the Jaguars are capable of pulling the upset at +240. (But let’s be honest, that’s not going to happen. And with their two best players still involved in trade talks, those odds could get even longer before September arrives.)
The only value the Colts at -300 provides is as the game you toss into every Week 1 parlay to beef up the odds, something props like this generally don’t allow. You’re better off just playing the moneyline.
Favorable Schedule Could Mean Late First Loss
Currently, Indy is favored in nine games in the upcoming season, including each of their first three. And when they do play powerhouses like the Packers and Ravens, they do so at home. With no games that they’re currently significant underdogs in, it’s a real crap shoot at what team could deliver Indy’s first notch in the L column.
The Minnesota-Indianapolis line opened with the Vikings getting around +120, so the prop offers some value if you have a good feeling about the purple and gold. But given all the turnover Minnesota has had in their receiving corps and secondary, I’d be wary of taking them in Week 2. It’s also worth noting, the Vikes have been slow starters in two seasons under Kirk Cousins, going 0-3-1 on the road in Weeks 1 through 4.
Every single year Kirk Cousins' PFF grade has ended up in the same 10-point grade band somewhere between low 70s and low 80s.
Weeks 1-4 he was 52
Week 5-> He's almost 95.
Overall he's landing right back at 81. Over the whole year I'd bet he'll land between 71-81 again.
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 25, 2019
Instead, for this prop, I’m gonna look for a nice valued underdog. Last season, Indy went 2-2 SU in games they were favored by more than 6 at home. Rivers was also no stranger to upsets, going 1-2 SU in the same situation. It certainly makes you wary of that Week 3 meeting with New York that could see a desperate 0-2 Jets coming to Lucas Oil Stadium.
In that very realistic scenario, there’s a ton of value on Jets +600. Last year, when 11-point underdog Miami won in Indy, they were only getting +450 on the moneyline. New York finished top 10 in defensive DVOA last season and after upgrading their offensive line, they should put up more points too.
From Weeks 10-17, Sam Darnold took pressure on a higher % of dropbacks than any other qualified QB (41.9%), yet still ranked 10th in passer rating (93.3) & 11th in Y/A (7.3)
He threw for over 3,000 Yards .
IMAGINE if the Jets get him a competent Oline pic.twitter.com/qqJx8jACEo
— 𝖻𝗋𝖺𝗇𝖽𝗈𝗇 🎡 (@JamaIAdamsEra) February 19, 2020
Keep in mind though, with the possibility games early games could be moved to later in the season due to COVID-19, this prop could get canceled at any time.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.