Colts Starting QB Odds Favor Anthony Richardson Over Daniel Jones
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Anthony Richardson is a -280 favorite to be the Colts Week 1 starter for the 2025 season
- Richardson had the worst completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks last season
- Below, see the odds to be the Colts starting QB in Week 1
Anthony Richardson was viewed as a developmental quarterback when he came into the NFL in 2023. Fast forward to 2025, and he’s still viewed as a project leading into his third season.
Richardson’s first two seasons have not gone to plan in Indianapolis. The former 4th overall pick has struggled to stay on the field, and his accuracy woes have never improved. Now, there’s new competition in the Colts QB room that’s expected to push Richardson for the starting job.
Colts Week 1 Starting QB Odds
Daniel Jones was brought in to challenge for the number one role. Richardson is still a -280 favorite to be Indy’s Week 1 starter, but the odds are longer than you might expect given the way Jones was run out of New York. Recent 6th round draft pick Riley Leonard is also an option for the Colts, but the former Irish QB won’t see the field during a regular season game unless the wheels completely fall off Indy’s offense.
The Case For and Against Richardson
Regardless of who’s under center for the Colts, this is not a team to invest in when it comes to the Super Bowl odds. Indianapolis was middle of the pack in scoring and total offense last season, but averaged less than 200 passing yards per game.
They lack an elite wide receiver, and they lost some key pieces along the offensive line. They did add stud tight end Tyler Warren in the first round of the Draft, and maybe he can provide some easy completions for Richardson.
No one will ever question Richardson’s arm strength. He has an absolute missile, and delivered one of the throws of the year in Week 1.
He’s an absolute beast of a runner, with the ability to juke or simply barrel over defenders. His 10 career rushing TD are among the most by a QB over the last two seasons, but his willingness to absorb hits also puts him at greater risk of injury.
The ceiling with Richardson is enormous. He has all the physical gifts to be great, but the intangibles are not there.
Who could forget when he took himself out a close game due to fatigue last season. In a million years, you would never see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson do that. You have to literally drag them off the field even when they’re seriously hurt.
Worst Completion Percentage in 2024 – Minimum 50 Attempts
Just as concerning is his lack of accuracy. Richardson has completed only 50% of his passes as a pro. Last season, his completion percentage was 47.7%. That was the worst among qualified candidates. For as big as his arm is, he only averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, meaning he was missing his easy throws as well.
If Indianapolis brought in a series QB threat, the starting job would actually be up for grabs. Unfortunately, I don’t believe Jones is that.
Jones Just Isn’t It
The Colts 1-year, $14 million contract for Jones could go down as one of the worst deals in NFL history. This is a guy who’s never thrown 25 touchdown passes in a season, and has one above average year on his NFL resume.
Jones has three more interceptions (13) than touchdown passes (10) over the past two seasons. He’s absorbed 208 sacks in 70 career games, and has never elevated the talent around him.
The 27-year-old has averaged only 6.5 yards per throw throughout his career, and has averaged 0.8 TD passes per start over the last five years. By comparison, Lamar has averaged 1.7 TD passes per game during that span, while Allen is at 1.9.
Jones will never be a franchise QB like Jackson or Allen, and his ceiling is a game manager. You simply can’t start a new season, when the entire organization is full of hope, with a QB who doesn’t have any serious upside.
Prediction for Colts Starting QB in Week 1
Which is why Richardson will ultimately win out. You can’t sell your fanbase on Jones, and you can punt on the 4th overall pick when he still has multiple years left on his rookie contract. Richardson will get the first crack to prove his worth.
Will he last the whole season as Indy’s starter? Probably not. He’s missed multiple games in each of his first two years due to injury, and his leash will likely be short. Head coach Shane Steichan will be on the hot seat in 2025, and he’ll have no choice but to sit Richardson if he doesn’t improve.
- Pick: Anthony Richardson (-280)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
