A Computer Predicts the Score for Each NFL Wild Card Game – See Its Picks Here!

• My SBD score predicting formula was hard at work all season, and now takes on making picks for the NFL playoffs
• Some of the formula’s best performances have come in the NFL playoffs
• See my SBD formula’s NFL picks for Super Wild Card Weekend, plus the predicted scores for each game

About 6.5 years ago, I put together an NFL score predicting formula. I have been tracking and tailing it ever since, and really improved the tracking over the last two seasons. The formula has been predicting the scores for NFL games all throughout the 2024-25 NFL season, and I’m now eager to share its NFL picks for the 2025 Wild Card Round.

If you had been following my SBD formula this season, you probably noticed it struggled picking upsets on the moneyline – it was by far its worst season in this category and the first season it lost money on upset picks. But it did have success picking games against the spread, posting a 143-125-4 record (53.4%). Simply tailing each pick wouldn’t have resulted in a huge ROI, but if you only tailed the picks where its ATS margin of victory was 17+, then you would have cashed at a 67% rate for a much better ROI.

But that was the regular season. This is the playoffs and my SBD formula thrives in the playoffs. Here’s who it’s picking to win in each game of NFL Wild Card Weekend, as well as the predicted scores.

NFL Picks for Wild Card Weekend & Predicted Scores

My SBD formula is picking the favorite to win each of the six games during NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. However, you might notice a lot of the predicted scores have tight margins of victory. Though it has favorites winning every game, it only has two favorites covering the spread: the Chargers and Vikings.

Based off the totals (over/unders) at the time of writing this article, my formula is also taking the under in every game except for the Commanders vs Buccaneers, where it is going with the over.

Whichever way you choose to bet the NFL Wild Card games this weekend, and whether you follow my formula’s predictions/picks or not, be sure you shop for the best line on any bet you make. Getting the best line/odds is such an integral part of making intelligent wagers. I appreciate flipping through every sports betting app can be tedious, but you can use our NFL odds page to do the work for you!

If you want some extra insights about my formula’s picks and performance around the teams above, keep on reading!

Chargers vs Texans Insights

Here are a few quick tidbits on my SBD formula’s performance on the two teams this season:

• Formula is 9-3 ATS (75%) when picking the Chargers to cover the spread this season
• It was an average of 11.6 points off LAC’s points scored when they played on the road this season, which was its fifth-worst mark in that category
• It was an average of 6.5 points off HOU’s points scored when they played at home this season, which was fourth-best in that category
• Formula was an average of 8.1 points off LAC’s points allowed in their nine away games, which was pretty average

If you remove two bad Houston predictions from my formula this season – the 41-point explosion against the Patriots in Week 6 and the two-point dud against the Ravens in Week 17 – it has been extremely accurate predicting the Texans’ points scored. It was within three points of their team total in six games (35%) and within seven points in 15 games (88%), which is all of the rest.

I have a lot of confidence in my formula’s pick for this game.

Steelers vs Ravens Insights

Here are some quick-hitters from my formula on these two teams this season:

• Formula went 10-5 ATS (67%) when picking the Steelers to cover this season
• It picked the Steelers to cover in both games against the Ravens, going 1-1
• Formula went a horrid 2-7 ATS (22%) when fading the Ravens this season
• My formula could not figure out the Ravens at home, being an average of 11.2 points off both their team total (eighth-worst in the category) and their opponents’ points scored (fourth-worst)
• While the formula was great with the Steelers’ opponents’ team totals when they were playing at home, it was awful when predicting that in their away games (13.3 points off on average, which was the worst in that category)

Similar to the above, my formula had a few bad games with the Ravens this season where it did not expect their offense to explode the way it did. Baltimore’s offense has made a habit of overperforming my formula’s expectations, and with that in mind, I have a fair bit of confidence in my formula picking the Ravens to win. However, I’m less confident in it taking the Steelers +10.

Broncos vs Bills Insights

Here are some insights into my formula’s performance on these two teams so far:

• My formula is 0-2 ATS when fading the Bills this season
• It is 9-4 ATS (69%) when picking the Broncos to cover
• Formula was an average 12.1 points off Buffalo’s team total this season, which was the worst in the league, and 11.8 points off their opponents’ points scored, which was second-worst
• It was an average 11.2 points off Denver’s team total this season, which was fourth-worst, and 12.9 points off their opponents’ team total, which was the worst

This is the NFL pick from my formula I am least confident of all six Wild Card matchups. These two teams have seen some real ups and downs this season, and my formula has not been able to keep up.

Packers vs Eagles Insights

These are the insights into my formula’s performance for the Packers and Eagles this season:

• My formula has been an even 8-8-1 ATS in Packers games this season, which includes going 6-6 ATS when picking them to cover
• It is 1-5 ATS (17%) when fading the Eagles against the spread
• The formula was pretty good predicting the Packers’ team total on the road, being an average 7.6 points off
• It was off by only 7.2 points when predicting Philadelphia’s opponents’ team total when the Eagles were at home

There aren’t a ton of notes for this game, as my formula has been pretty good with both of these teams, but nothing overly noteworthy. I have a pretty high level of confidence in my formula’s pick for this one.

Commanders vs Buccaneers Insights

Here’s how my formula performed with these two teams this season:

• My formula is 8-1 ATS (67%) when picking the Commanders to cover
• But it is 1-3 ATS (25%) when fading the Bucs against the spread
• It was great for Washington’s team total at home, but an average of 12 points off their team total on the road, which was third-worst
• Only two teams underperformed my formula’s expectations of their offense at home more than the Buccaneers
• It was an average 11.8 points off the Commanders’ opponents’ team totals when Washington was on the road
• It didn’t perform much better with Tampa Bay’s opponents’ team totals when the Bucs were at home, being off by an average 10.2 points

My formula was pretty good with these two teams when they played in the opposite situations they are on Sunday – Tampa Bay on the road and Washington at home. However, I still carry a good level of confidence in my formula’s pick for this game.

Vikings vs Rams Insights

And finally, my formula’s performance for the Vikings and Rams, respectively, this season:

• My formula is 11-3 ATS (79%) when picking the Vikings to cover the spread
• But it is just 5-8 ATS (38%) when fading the Rams against the spread
• No team underperformed my formula’s expectations of their offense on the road more than the Vikings
• My formula was an average 12.1 points off the Rams’ team total in home games, tied for fifth-worst, and an average of 12.5 points off their opponents’ team total in the same situation, which was second-worst
• It was an average of 12.4 points off Minnesota’s opponents’ team total when the Vikings were on the road

The injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua this season resulted in two different offenses from the Rams this season, and my formula did not adjust quick enough in either transition. The two players making their respective returns in Week 8 against the Vikings also accounts for one of my formula’s bad predictions with Minnesota’s defense while on the road. The formula didn’t know how healthy the two players would be, and the Rams outperformed their expected points by 18.6.

But my formula has been picking up some steam with these two teams to close the season, and I carry a high-level of confidence with its pick here.