Fantasy Football Conference Championships Rankings: Trust Brady?

• Can Tom Brady carve up the Jaguars defense the way Ben Roethlisberger did last week?
• How will Leonard Fournette fare against the Patriots one week after scoring three TDs?
• Who are your top options at WR, RB, and TE in the Conference Championships?

 

Each week of the NFL Playoffs, I have been offering my best daily fantasy football lineup along with full rankings of each position. In the Divisional Round, I budgeted a little too much on wide receivers. Nelson Agholar and Dede Westrbook’s five combined points held my team back from a big week.

With only two games on the schedule this week, and three of the league’s top defenses playing, you need to have the best players in your lineup to see any DFS payout. Here is my best daily fantasy lineup (see the video below), along with full positional rankings for the Conference Championships.

Conference Championships QB Rankings

TIER 1

1. Tom Brady, Patriots (v JAX)
2. Case Keenum, Vikings (@PHI)
3. Blake Bortles, Jaguars (@NE)

TIER 2

4. Nick Foles, Eagles (v MIN)

Unlike most weeks, there is no QB option who stands above the rest this Sunday. While Tom Brady seems like the obvious choice, a confident, top-ranked Jaguars pass defense would say otherwise. Ben Roethlisberger had himself quite the day against Jacksonville last week, but that was a result of (1) the Jaguars defense getting conservative due to the score, and (2) Antonio Brown being the best WR in the game.

The Jaguars defense won’t take their foot off the pedal this weekend against the Patriots, and no New England wide receiver will be able to replicate what Brown did. AJ Bouye, who hadn’t given up a touchdown all season, had near-perfect coverage on both of Brown’s TD receptions. Brandin Cooks doesn’t make those grabs. Yes, Rob Gronkowski presents an extremely tough test for the Jaguars secondary. But the speed of Jacksonville’s linebackers and the physicality of their safeties makes it a more favorable matchup for the Jaguars than dealing with Brown.

Jacksonville is going to be able to pressure Brady with a four-man rush, forcing the five-time Super Bowl champion to get the ball out quickly and lean on his ground game more than usual. Add in an injured thumb on his throwing hand, and Brady is far too risky at the price you’re forced to pay.

DFS players are better off saving money with Case Keenum. The only bad choice at pivot this week is Nick Foles against the Vikings’ top-ranked defense.

Conference Championships RB Rankings

TIER 1

1. Dion Lewis, Patriots (v JAX)

TIER 2

2. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars (@NE)
3. James White, Patriots (v JAX)
4. Latavius Murray, Vikings (@PHI)
5. Jay Ajayi, Eagles (v MIN)

TIER 3

6. TJ Yeldon, Jaguars (@NE)
7. Jerick McKinnon, Vikings (@PHI)
8. LeGarrette Blount, Eagles (v MIN)

TIER 4

9. Rex Burkehead, Patriots (v JAX)
10. Corey Clement, Eagles (v MIN)

On paper, the best matchup of the week is Leonard Fournette against a Patriot defense that allowed the 19th-most fantasy points to RBs (17.82 per game). But Bill Belichick specializes in taking away the opponent’s best offensive player, so you better believe the Patriots will be stacking the box and forcing Blake Bortles to beat them with his arm. You saw this last week when New England held Derrick Henry to just 28 rushing yards on 12 carries. Due to the sheer volume that Fournette will see, he still remains the second-ranked RB this week.

The top RB option of the week is Dion Lewis. Remember what I said about the Jaguars forcing Brady to throw quickly and rely on his rushing attack? That’s why Lewis is at the top of the chart this week, and also why James White is the third-best option at RB. White has re-emerged now that the playoffs are here, scoring two TDs last week on just eight touches. Brady will be targeting his RBs often in the passing game, as their craftiness as receivers presents a major advantage for the Patriots.

Volume and touchdown-potential are why Latavius Murray and Jay Ajayi hang around the second tier. Don’t get your hopes too high, though. The Vikings and Eagles allowed the fewest and second-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs this season (12.81 and 13.76, respectively). Both defenses are going to force the inexperienced QB on the other side to do the heavy lifting.

Conference Championships WR Rankings

TIER 1

1. Adam Thielen, Vikings (@PHI)

TIER 2

2. Stefon Diggs, Vikings (@PHI)
3. Danny Amendola, Patriots (v JAX)

TIER 3

4. Marqise Lee, Jaguars (@NE)
5. Nelson Agholar, Eagles (v MIN)
6. Brandin Cooks, Patriots (v JAX)
7. Allen Hurns, Jaguars (@NE)
8. Jarius Wright, Vikings (@PHI)

TIER 4

9. Alshon Jeffery, Eagles (v MIN)
10. Dede Westbrook, Jaguars (@NE)
11. Chris Hogan, Patriots (v JAX)
12. Keelan Cole, Jaguars (@NE)

TIER 5

13. Torrey Smith, Eagles (v MIN)
14. Mack Hollins, Eagles (v MIN)
15. Laquon Treadwell, Vikings (@PHI)

If you’re strictly looking at matchups, your DFS lineup should be littered with Jaguars receivers. The Patriots surrendered the fourth-most PPG to WRs this season (22.94 per game). But the Jaguars do not trust Blake Bortles to drop back and beat a team with his arm, and they especially do not trust him throwing the ball outside of the hash marks in the red zone. The lack of trust in Bortles will serve as the Jacksonville receivers’ ball and chain.

It is Viking receivers who occupy the top two spots this week, thanks to an Eagles defense that allowed the 13th-most PPG to WRs this season (20.72). In order to avoid dealing with Philadelphia’s dominant front-seven, Minnesota will likely get creative with their “running game.” Expect wide receiver screens and quick passes to the sidelines to serve as a non-traditional rushing attack, forcing Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan to chase the ball from sideline to sideline. The result will be a lot of targets for both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The former is the more reliable option, but the latter has the higher ceiling.

If you’re looking to pair Brady with one of his wide receivers, don’t waste your money on Brandin Cooks. The former Saint is losing the trust of his quarterback and is looking like nothing more than a deep-threat. Danny Amendola, who has taken over Julian Edelman’s role in the offense, is your best Patriot option, as he can hurt Jacksonville underneath and between the hash marks.

Conference Championships TE Rankings

TIER 1

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (v JAX)

TIER 2

2. Zach Ertz, Eagles (v MIN)
3. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings (@PHI)
4. James O’Shaughnessy, Jaguars (@NE)

TIER 3

5. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars (@NE)
6. Brent Celek, Eagles (v MIN)
7. Ben Koyack, Jaguars (@NE)
8. Dwayne Allen, Patriots (v JAX)
9. Trey Burton, Eagles (v MIN)
10. David Morgan, Vikings (@PHI)

There really is only one TE option you can start with confidence this week: Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots pass-catcher is too physically imposing to be completely shutdown, and it’s unlikely the Jaguars come out of their Cover 3 to shadow him with either Jalen Ramsey or AJ Bouye. It may not be a lot, but Gronk will still get his.

Zach Ertz has to deal with Harrison Smith and a Vikings defense that allowed the fewest PPG to TEs this season (4.82). I don’t like that matchup, especially when you factor in Nick Foles as the passer.

If you’re looking for a budget option, your best bet is with Kyle Rudolph or taking a swing at one of Jacksonville’s touchdown-dependent TEs.

Conference Championships Kicker Rankings

TIER 1

1. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots (v JAX)

TIER 2

2. Kai Forbath, Vikings (@PHI)
3. Jake Elliott, Eagles (v MIN)
4. Josh Lambo, Jaguars (@NE)

Conference Championships DST Rankings

TIER 1

1. Minnesota Vikings (@PHI)

TIER 2

2. Philadelphia Eagles (v MIN)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (@NE)
4. New England Patriots (v JAX)