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After Opening at +2000, Dak Prescott Now Given 4th-Best Odds to Win NFL MVP Amid Contract Negotiations

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 4:28 PM PST

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
FILE - In this Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020 file photo, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott drops back to pass in the first half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns in Arlington, Texas. Applying franchise and even transition tags to players can have major ramifications on a team's present and future. That was never more of a consideration than this year, with the salary cap decreasing by, for now, $18 million. That's the first time the cap has gone down, which is due to lost revenues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins, File)
  • Dak Prescott’s MVP odds have shortened to +1400
  • Dallas QB will likely play on the franchise tag this season
  • Find out below if we think Prescott is worthy of an MVP wager

As the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott stare each other down in contract negotiations, it certainly hasn’t taken the shine off a successful offseason of building, which has the Cowboys a legitimate contender to rep the NFC in the Super Bowl.

We’ve also seen a noticeable surge in Prescott’s 2020 NFL MVP odds.

NFL MVP Odds

Player Pos Team Odds to win 2020 NFL MVP
Patrick Mahomes QB KC +400
Lamar Jackson QB BAL +700
Russell Wilson QB SEA +800
Dak Prescott QB DAL +1400
Tom Brady QB TB +1600
Carson Wentz QB PHI +2000
Deshaun Watson QB HOU +2500
Drew Brees QB NO +2500
Kyler Murray QB ARI +2500
Aaron Rodgers QB GB +3000

*Odds from June 11

After opening with +2000 odds in February, Prescott’s odds have shortened to +1400, into the top-4 with Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson.

Let’s explore, and find out if he’s worth the wager.

Does Contract Impasse Play a Factor?

In a league where even serviceable quarterbacks seem to fall into lucrative deals, it’s turned into a bizarre game of chicken between the Cowboys and the Prescott camp.

The two sides are at odds at average value, with the Cowboys trying to ink Prescott into a $35 million a year pact, though he’s said to be seeking $40 million annually. They’re also jockeying at length of the contract: Dallas is known for locking their stars down to some of the longest deals in the league, whereas Prescott is seeking a deal in the three or four-year range, allowing him to hit free agency again while still at his peak just around age 30.

As they continue to negotiate, it appears Prescott may have to play on the franchise tag, but there shouldn’t be any issue of Dak sitting and forcing backup Andy Dalton into the starter role. He’s played 64 straight games since entering the league, and all indications for now are that he’s playing.

Dak Given Super Support to Succeed

If Dallas is unsure if Dak is their guy, they’ve given him every single opportunity to solidify his standing as a top-tier pivot in the NFL.

Prescott is coming off his best season in 2019, setting career highs in total completions (388), while throwing for 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns. His 99.7 QB rating was the second-highest in his career. Those figures all ranked top-five in the NFL last year.

Despite Dallas stumbling to an 8-8 mark, Prescott led the Cowboys to the second-best offensive DVOA in the league, behind the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens.

With a still-impressive offensive line, and stud running back Ezekiel Elliott,  Dallas continued to bolster the offense, drafting receiver CeeDee Lamb with their first round pick. Adding him to the freshly signed Amari Cooper and third-year man Michael Gallup, the Cowboys have the potential to be a scoring juggernaut this year.

But they didn’t stop there. The defense has ranked inside the top-10 in DVOA in just one of Prescott’s four seasons (2018), while ranking 19th a season ago.

They lacked in big plays, second-last in total sacks with 23, and tied for last in the league with just seven interceptions.

While treading close to the cap, the Cowboys did some fine work plugging gaps with serviceable vets. They inked defensive linemen Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe and safety Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. While losing top corner Byron Jones to free agency, premium draft picks Trevon Diggs and Reggie Robinson II are promising prospects to bolster the secondary.

Is Dak Worth a Wager?

Perhaps the other factor that could bolster Dak’s rise is Mike McCarthy replacing Jason Garrett as head coach. While the end of McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay was sour, he was at the helm for the best years of Aaron Rodgers’ career, which included a league MVP.

I think all the elements are there for Dak to make an MVP run, but it was a lot more tantalizing to grab him at +2000 than his current rate.

In the end, it’s really just a side wager. So long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, this is his MVP award to lose.

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