Will Bryant Light It Up in New Orleans? Stat Projections for Dez with the Saints

• Former Dallas Cowboy Dez Bryant has finally found a home for 2018.
• The eight-year vet has signed a one-year deal with the 7-1 New Orleans Saints.
• Get the odds on how Bryant will do in the Big Easy, and where he’ll wind up in 2019.

Dez Bryant’s unemployment has come to an end. The ex-Cowboy agreed to a one-year contract with the NFC-leading New Orleans Saints on Wednesday.

The value of the contract has yet to be disclosed.

Dez Bryant lands one-year contract with surging New Orleans Saints https://t.co/Cvb9PmgPg2

— Guardian US (@GuardianUS) November 7, 2018

At first blush, it looks like a worthwhile deal for both parties.

The Saints are thin at receiver. After Michael Thomas, who is having an All Pro season (70 catches on 79 targets; 880 yards; 5 TDs), the team’s next leading WR is third-round rookie Tre’Quan Smith, who has just 12 catches and 214 yards in eight games. Over half of Drew Brees’ 279 pass attempts have been to either Thomas or RB Alvin Kamara (66 targets).

Meanwhile, Bryant, who is eager for the first playoff success of his career, gets the chance to join a first-place team with real Super Bowl aspirations. He also gets the chance to play with arguably the best QB in the league, which can’t hurt his quest to prove he’s still a weapon in the passing game. Brees has made lesser talents look like Pro Bowlers, after all. (Cough cough Ben Watson.)

Bryant will get his first chance to impress in Week 10 when New Orleans visits Cincinnati. The Saints are currently five-point favorites in the game. The Bengals have the worst pass defense and total defense in the NFL. It’s a great spot for Bryant’s first game with the team.

How will the Oklahoma State product do with his new team? Will his new team be his longterm home? Odds below.

Over/Unders for Dez Bryant with the Saints

Bryant isn’t the deep threat he used to be. He is considerably slower now than in his prime and his inability to create separation was a big part of his regression in Dallas circa 2015. (After three straight 1200-yard-plus seasons from 2012-2014, he failed to top 840 yards from 2015-2017.)

However, he’s still an imposing presence who plays bigger than his 6’2, 222-pound frame thanks to his raw power. He has the potential to be a Jimmy Graham-like slot target for Brees, though Bryant doesn’t have nearly the size of the 6’7 tight end who thrived in New Orleans.

Dez Bryant was in the bottom 25th percentile of Next Gen Stats’ separation metrics in both 2016 and 2017, but we have to keep the light on for any receiver attached to Drew Brees.

Brees’ +8.7% completion rate above expectation on throws 0-19 yards downfield easily leads all QBs.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 7, 2018

With defenses keenly focused on stopping Thomas and Kamara, Bryant should be able to find some success. Expect him to produce like the team’s third-leading receiver, tight end Ben Watson, who has 26 catches, 292 yards, and 2 touchdowns on the year.

Odds Dez Bryant Re-Signs with the Saints in 2019

Even if Bryant is a success with New Orleans, that isn’t likely to result in a longterm deal. The Saints are top-five in terms of cap space committed for 2019 (with just $15.5 million left to work with). Moves can obviously be made. Players can be cut and contracts restructured. But there are going to be other holes to fill, including potentially running back and tight end, as Mark Ingram, Ben Watson, and Michael Hoomanawanui are all free agents at the end of the year.

Saints make salary cap space for Dez Bryant by restructuring Terron Armstead https://t.co/4JVcGXMfnV

— TheSaintsWire (@TheSaintsWire) November 7, 2018

That doesn’t even touch on potential defensive upgrades the team would like to make.

Long story short, don’t count on Dez being in New Orleans long enough to answer the question, “Who Dat?”