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Divisional Round Playoffs NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2023 · 9:09 AM PST

Cincinnati Bengals players celebrating
Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither (59) celebrates a tackle on a kick return in the third quarter during an NFL wild-card playoff football game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals won, 24-17. The Cincinnati Bengals advance with the win to play the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round. Baltimore Ravens At Cincinnati Bengals Afc Wild Card Jan 15 0382
  • In the NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread, home teams are favored in all four games
  • The San Francisco 49ers are a 4-point pick in the closest line of the weekend
  • Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are favored by more than a touchdown

Whether it’s looked at from an emotional, historical, or traditional perspective, there are certainly some fascinating matchups this weekend in the Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread.

It’s going to be difficult to outdo last season’s Divisional Round playoffs when all four games came down to the final play, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t potential for great games.

In San Francisco, the 49ers and Dallas Cowboys will be meeting for the ninth time in the NFL Playoffs. They’ve faced each other six times in the NFC Championship Game.

Although this game is in Buffalo, the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will be meeting for the first time since their Week 17 game at Cincinnati, when Buffalo DB Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field, leading to the cancelation of the game.

Which of these games are worth a play in the Divisional Round NFL odds as ATS picks? Let’s take a look at that and all of the Divisional Round NFL picks against the spread.

Divisional Round NFL Picks Against the Spread

Matchup Spread Pick Units Risked
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs KC-8.5 KC 1
 New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles PHA-7.5 NYG 1
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers SF-4 SF 1
Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills BUF-5 CIN 1

Odds as of January 17 at Caesars Sportsbook. Get this Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to bet on the NFL in Wild Card Weekend

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Chiefs, Bengals, 49ers and Giants.

Looking back at Wild Card Weekend, underdogs covered in four of six games. The Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars were underdogs who won outright. Home teams were 2-4 ATS.

Jaguars vs Chiefs ATS Pick

It’s been a great season for the Jacksonville Jaguars, one offering much hope for the future, but it comes to a conclusion this week. The Kansas City Chiefs simply possess too many weapons for the Jaguars’ defense to contain.

The NFL public betting splits are solidly favoring the Chiefs in both spread and moneyline wagering. Both teams come into this game on 5-0 SU runs. Jacksonville is also 5-1 ATS over the last six games. But Kansas City is 5-0 SU in the last five against the Jaguars and 7-4 ATS in the playoffs since 2018.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 (-110), 1 unit

Giants vs Eagles ATS Pick

Perhaps the most bitter rivalry in the NFL, the NFC East clash between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants is their third of the season and the first time facing each other in the postseason since 2008. Philadelphia won both regular-season meetings, but the Eagles have never beaten the Giants three times in a single season over the 90-year history of this rivalry.

The Giants are the NFL’s best cover team this season. They’re 14-4 ATS. That includes an astonishing 11-2 ATS success rate as an underdog, and 7-1 ATS as a road team. Getting 7.5 points on them seems like a gift.

Pick: New York Giants +7.5 (-110), 1 unit

Bengals vs Bills ATS Pick

The line on the Bengals vs Bills game opened at Buffalo -4.5 and has since lengthened. Failing to cover against the Miami Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend, the Bills dropped to 2-5 ATS in their last seven playoff games.

Meanwhile, the Bengals covered at home against the Baltimore Ravens and are now 8-1 ATS over all in their last nine games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +5 (-110), 1 unit

Cowboys vs 49ers ATS Pick

In four of the five times that the Cowboys beat the 49ers in the NFL Playoffs, they went to the Super Bowl. On two of the three occasions that San Francisco has defeated Dallas in the NFL postseason, the 49ers were Super Bowl bound.

Winning at Tampa Bay, Dallas claimed a postseason road victory for the first time since beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game in 1993. San Francisco has won five in a row overall and five in a row at home. But Dallas is 5-1 SU in the last six road games against the 49ers.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4 (-110), 1 unit

    • ATS season record 33-24-1, +9 units
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