NFL Draft Best Bets & Picks – Where Is the Best Betting Value?
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- The NFL Draft begins Thursday Night at 8pm ET from Lambeau Field, in Green Bay
- Edge Mykel Williams is rocketing up Draft Boards, and is a strong value to be a top-10 pick
- See the NFL Draft Best Bets and Picks, below
The NFL Draft is set for Thursday in Green Bay and it’s shaping up to be a wild night. Literally anything is on the table after the top-three picks. As we get closer to the big day, more and more news is starting to leak.
That gives us an opportunity to pick off bad lines in the NFL Draft odds, but only if we act quickly. I’ve identified my two favorite wagers currently available, and each features a defensive theme.
NFL Draft Picks
I’m targeting Mykel Williams to be a top-10 pick at -125, and for the Jets fist selection to be a defensive lineman or Edge at +340. Both these wagers were available at much longer odds earlier in the week, but they still offer value based on the latest Draft buzz.
NFL Draft Best Bets #1: Mykel Williams to be a Top-10 Pick
Let’s start with Williams. The Georgia edge explodes off the screen when you watch the tape. He boasts elite size, length and athleticism, that has defensive coaches around the NFL licking their chops.
Williams’ 2024 stats were underwhelming to some, as he posted only 7.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. However, that was mostly due to the depth and scheme of the Bulldogs roster. Teams that value traits are falling in love with his upside, as the skills he possesses could easily translate into an All-Pro pass rusher.
He’s currently the favorite to be the ninth-overall selection by the Saints at FanDuel – and that’s where Matt McEwan has him going in his latest NFL mock draft – but depending on how the draft breaks, he could easily go sooner.Â
Longtime NFL Draft Guru Todd McShay is on record saying teams picking in the 6-10 range are leaning defense with their first pick. That makes sense, given the offensive tackle group is unexceptional, and clubs are hesitant to spend that kind of capital on non-premium positions like running back and tight end.
While this year’s offensive line class doesn’t feature any elite difference makers, the Edge group is loaded. Edge is considered one of the most important positions, and we could see a major run on that position group earlier that most expect on Thursday night. This bet was available at +180 odds on Tuesday morning, but has been bet down to -125 over the course of 12 hours.
- Mykel Williams to be a Top-10 Pick (-125 at DraftKings)
NFL Draft Best Bets #2: New York Jets 1st Pick is Defensive Lineman or Edge
Speaking of pass rusher, that’s the position I believe the Jets are going to be targeting with their first pick at number 7.
New York just hired a defensive minded head coach in Aaron Glenn, and it would make all the sense in the world if the first draft choice under his watch set the tone on defense.
The beauty of this wager is that it covers not only edge rushers, but defensive tackles as well. That’s huge because while I believe Williams is a realistic option for New York at seven, there’s a good chance Michigan d-tackle Mason Graham falls to them.
New York Jets 1st Round Draft Picks – Last 5 Years
Graham was long thought to be the Jags pick at number five, but McShay is reporting they’re looking to upgrade the pass-catching corps in a desperate move to try to salvage Trevor Lawrence.
Graham is a brute force on the interior, and Glenn must be salivating at the chance to pair him alongside Quinnen Williams.
Graham can disrupt the quarterback up the middle, as evident by his 9 sacks and 56 pressures at Michigan. He’s also dominant against the run, and was a big piece of the Wolverines Championship team.
Both Graham and Williams could easily be the Jets pick here, or it could be one of the other five pass rushers projected to go in Round 1.
Many believed New York would target an offensive tackle in this spot, but given Will Campbell is a -380 favorite to be the fourth pick, and the lack of upside of Armand Membou, it’s starting to look more and more like defense will be the pick.
Edge/Defensive lineman as the Jets first selection was +800 Tuesday morning, so grab it now while you can still get a favorable price.
- Defensive Lineman/Edge to be Position of First New York Jets Drafted Player (+340 at FanDuel)
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Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
