- Week 4 kicks off with Eagles and Packers on Thursday Night Football
- Our TNF props were 2-1 last week for +0.76 units (-1.70 units for the season)
- Davante Adams is primed for a monster night
Week 3 was our first profitable Thursday of the season and we’re looking to carry the momentum over to Week 4 where Davante Adams is in a home run spot against the Eagles.
Davante Adams has scored a touchdown or surpassed 100 receiving yards in 32-of-43 games (74%) with Rodgers since 2016pic.twitter.com/s5Tg6ufPGc
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 22, 2019
Prop #1: Davante Adams Over/Under 87.5 Receiving Yards
Adams has faced arguably the toughest schedule among number one receivers so far this season but that all changes Thursday Night versus Philly. The Eagles are one of the biggest pass funnel defenses in the league, ranking second against the run, but 28th against the pass.
Remember back in 2016 when GB was struggling on offense prior to playing the Eagles on MNF, and they wanted to get Davante Adams going.. I’m getting similar vibes this week. pic.twitter.com/GnRW2waXBD
— Jake (@SeedsofJake) September 25, 2019
They’ve already allowed four different receivers to rack up over 100 yards if the first three weeks and they’ll be playing without top corner Ronald Darby, who’s out with a hamstring injury. Prior to last Sunday, Adams had averaged 11.5 targets in his last nine games, and that kind of volume combined with Philly’s leaky secondary is a recipe for success.
Pick: Adams Over 87.5 receiving yards (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #2: Davante Adams Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
Adams was held to just four catches last week against the Broncos and Aaron Rodgers has been very vocal this week about his desire to get his favorite target more action. Adams averaged 7.5 receptions per game last season and has a significant advantage over all the remaining corners on the Eagles roster.
Aaron Rodgers when he walks up to the line and sees Rasul Douglas lined up on Davante Adams on Thursday night pic.twitter.com/sdDvZWvO9C
— Not My President (@KingFavre) September 25, 2019
Philly’s pass rush has been anemic this season racking up just two sacks, and the lack of pressure should give Rodgers plenty of time to wait for Adams to shake free.
Pick: Adams Over 6.5 receptions (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #3: Miles Sanders To Out-Rush Aaron Jones
This is more of a bet against Aaron Jones than on Sanders. Mike McCarthy didn’t think Jones was worthy of a three down role and neither does Matt LaFleur. Jones played on just 21 of 54 offensive snaps last week in a game that Green Bay was winning from the start, and earned two fewer carries than Jamaal Williams.
— Spectrum News 1 Wisconsin (@SpectrumNews1WI) September 18, 2019
Miles Sanders, meanwhile, is fresh off his most productive game as a pro, leading the Eagles backfield in carries and touches for the third straight week. The Packers are much more susceptible on the ground than through the air, and Philadelphia boasts the NFL’s eighth best run blocking unit according to Pro Football Focus.
Pick: Sanders more rushing yards than Jones (+104)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.04 units