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Eagles vs Packers Props: Davante Adams Set For Breakout Game

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 7:52 AM PDT

Davante Adams
Davante Adams and the Packers host the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. Photo from @I_am_damson. (Twitter.)
  • Week 4 kicks off with Eagles and Packers on Thursday Night Football
  • Our TNF props were 2-1 last week for +0.76 units (-1.70 units for the season)
  • Davante Adams is primed for a monster night

Week 3 was our first profitable Thursday of the season and we’re looking to carry the momentum over to Week 4 where Davante Adams is in a home run spot against the Eagles.

Prop #1: Davante Adams Over/Under 87.5 Receiving Yards

Receiving Yards Odds
Over 87.5 -114
Under 87.5 -114

Adams has faced arguably the toughest schedule among number one receivers so far this season but that all changes Thursday Night versus Philly. The Eagles are one of the biggest pass funnel defenses in the league, ranking second against the run, but 28th against the pass.

They’ve already allowed four different receivers to rack up over 100 yards if the first three weeks and they’ll be playing without top corner Ronald Darby, who’s out with a hamstring injury. Prior to last Sunday, Adams had averaged 11.5 targets in his last nine games, and that kind of volume combined with Philly’s leaky secondary is a recipe for success.

Pick: Adams Over 87.5 receiving yards (-114)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #2: Davante Adams Over/Under 6.5 Receptions

Receptions Odds
Over 6.5 -114
Under 6.5 -114

Adams was held to just four catches last week against the Broncos and Aaron Rodgers has been very vocal this week about his desire to get his favorite target more action. Adams averaged 7.5 receptions per game last season and has a significant advantage over all the remaining corners on the Eagles roster.

Philly’s pass rush has been anemic this season racking up just two sacks, and the lack of pressure should give Rodgers plenty of time to wait for Adams to shake free.

Pick: Adams Over 6.5 receptions (-114)

Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #3: Miles Sanders To Out-Rush Aaron Jones

Player Odds
Miles Sanders +104
Aaron Jones -156

This is more of a bet against Aaron Jones than on Sanders. Mike McCarthy didn’t think Jones was worthy of a three down role and neither does Matt LaFleur. Jones played on just 21 of 54 offensive snaps last week in a game that Green Bay was winning from the start, and earned two fewer carries than Jamaal Williams.

Miles Sanders, meanwhile, is fresh off his most productive game as a pro, leading the Eagles backfield in carries and touches for the third straight week. The Packers are much more susceptible on the ground than through the air, and Philadelphia boasts the NFL’s eighth best run blocking unit according to Pro Football Focus.

Pick: Sanders more rushing yards than Jones (+104)

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.04 units

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