Early NFL Props to Target Week 8: Concepcion, Okonkwo & Sutton

• Early NFL props for Week 8 come from three different Sunday games
• Two reception markets and one receiving yards market make up this week’s card
• Keep reading for my early NFL props for Week 8, plus the usage behind each one

My early NFL props for Week 8 focus on receiving opportunities rather than chasing last Sunday’s biggest yardage totals. Seven weeks in, those roles are a lot easier to read than they were in September, and that’s what I’m leaning on here.

Two of my plays are built on young pass catchers whose workloads have grown, one through steady target growth and one through an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. I’m targeting their catch totals rather than asking either player to deliver another huge yardage day.

The third is the opposite case, a veteran whose receiving numbers have stayed small all year. All three land on Sunday, November 1, and here are the NFL props I’m targeting.

NFL Week 8 Props to Target

These are my own estimated targets rather than posted sportsbook lines. Check the actual number and the price attached to it before betting any of them.

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NFL Prop Pick: KC Concepcion Receptions

• Early Bet: KC Concepcion over 4.5 receptions (estimated target)

KC Concepcion had the kind of game that gets a rookie noticed. He caught eight passes for 129 yards in Week 7 and added three carries for 23 yards on the ground.

The yardage is the part I’d be careful chasing. His targets are the repeatable piece, and he’s seen at least six of them in five of his last six games.

That’s why I prefer the receptions market to a receiving yards number here. Concepcion doesn’t need another explosive play to get to five catches, just the role Cleveland has already handed him.

He’s also done it against this defense. Concepcion caught five passes for 64 yards in Cleveland’s 27-24 win over Pittsburgh in Week 4, and while one meeting doesn’t settle anything, it shows the Browns will feed him in this matchup.

The Browns are at Pittsburgh at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. On the total receptions odds board, a rookie climbing toward the top of his team’s target order is exactly the type I want at 4.5.

NFL Prop Pick: Chig Okonkwo Receptions

• Early Bet: Chig Okonkwo over 3.5 receptions (estimated target)

Washington’s passing game looks different now. Terry McLaurin tore his patellar tendon and is out for the season, which puts a meaningful share of targets back on the table.

Chig Okonkwo is the player I expect to take a chunk of them. He projects as the Commanders’ No. 2 option behind Stefon Diggs, which is a forecast rather than a settled role, but his recent work supports it.

Okonkwo caught all seven of his targets for 69 yards against San Francisco in Week 6. He’s now posted four-plus catches and 60-plus yards in back-to-back games.

The sample is small. Washington went on bye in Week 7, so nobody has seen a full game with the new target distribution in place.

That’s why I want 3.5 rather than a bigger number on this receptions prop. The Eagles visit at 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday night, and four catches asks Okonkwo to do less than he’s done in each of his last two appearances.

NFL Prop Pick: Courtland Sutton Receiving Yards

• Early Bet: Courtland Sutton under 35.5 receiving yards (estimated target)

Courtland Sutton has 16 catches for 168 yards through seven games. That’s 24 receiving yards per game, and he hasn’t caught more than three passes in any of them.

Sutton finished below my 35.5-yard target in five of those seven games. That limited catch volume is the reason I prefer the under, even with his yardage target sitting in the mid-30s.

I’m not pretending he’s coming off a dud. Sutton went for 45 yards on three catches in Denver’s 30-16 win over Arizona last week, his second-highest yardage total of the season.

A long reception could beat this under, as last week’s result makes clear. I’m betting on the low volume showing up again, not assuming Kansas City can eliminate every downfield completion.

Denver hosts Kansas City at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, and these teams met in Week 1, when Sutton finished with two catches for 11 yards. One meeting isn’t a trend, but of the receiving yards odds worth watching this week, this under is the one I keep coming back to.