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NFL DFS 2019 Divisional Round (Sunday) – Fade Tom Brady

Tom Brady Patriots QB
Tom Brady is going to be under heavy pressure in the Divisional Round against the Chargers. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The 2019 NFL Divisional Round continues Sunday
  • MyBookie has released Daily Fantasy Sports O/Us for the 4 QBs in action
  • Tom Brady performs significantly worse when pressured

The best weekend of the NFL season continues Sunday with two more games, and MyBookie has released another slate of fantasy betting props for us to dissect.

Before we dive into the breakdown, let’s go over MyBookie’s scoring system:

  • Pass Yds = 1 pt per 25 yds, Pass TD = 4 pts, Pass INT = -2 pts
  • Rush Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rush TD = 6 pts, Fumble = -2 pts
  • Rec Yds = 1 pt per 10 yds, Rec TD = 6 pts, Rec = 1 pt
  • 2-Point Conversion: 2 pts
  • Decimals ≥ 0.5 round up, < 0.5 round down

Tom Brady O/U 17.5 Fantasy points

Over/Under Odds at MyBookie
Over 17.5 -165
Under 17.5 +125

*All odds taken 1/13 It never feels good to bet against the GOAT, but Tom Brady has been dismal under pressure this season and the Chargers boast a ferocious pass rush.

When facing pressure, Brady’s completion percentage dropped to just 45.3% and his QBR is a pedestrian 71.2. He has failed to reach 17.5 fantasy points in six of his last nine outings, and the Chargers have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The Pick: UNDER 17.5 (-120) 

Philip Rivers O/U 18.5 Fantasy points

Over/Under Odds at MyBookie
Over 18.5 +115
Under 18.5 -155

It’s hard not to root for Philip Rivers, but unfortunately from a fantasy perspective he appears to be an easy fade.

Rivers has failed to reach 10 fantasy points in three straight outings and since Week 4, has more games with zero touchdown passes than he does with three.  The Chargers play at the slowest pace in the league and the Patriots allow under 17 points per game at home this season. The Pick: UNDER 18.5 (-135)

Drew Brees O/U 21.5 Fantasy points

Over/Under Odds at MyBookie
Over 21.5 -120
Under 21.5 -120

Drew Brees’ home/road splits are insane.

He averages 321.6 passing yards, three touchdowns and 25.24 fantasy points in the Superdome this season. He torched the Eagles for 31 fantasy points in Week 11, and has thrown 11 touchdowns in his last four home playoff games.

Throw in a 29.5 implied team total and this seems like a lay-up to me. The Pick: OVER 21.5 (-120)

Nick Foles O/U 16.5 Fantasy points

Over/Under Odds at MyBookie
Over 16.5 -175
Under 16.5 +135

On the other side of the ball, Nick Foles looks poised to shred his fantasy prop.

Foles is completing over 73% of his passes in his last four games, with 79% of those throws travelling at least 12 yards downfield. He’s thrown eight touchdowns in his last three contests, and faces a Saints defense that has allowed the fourth most passing yards this season. https://youtu.be/QqGTjWcla3U Foles has also been excellent in the playoffs, eclipsing 16.5 fantasy points in each of his last three postseason games. As 8.5-point underdogs, the Eagles will likely be playing catch-up, forcing Foles to air it out even more. The Pick: OVER 16.5 (-120)

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Chris Amberley has been obsessing over statistics since he was old enough to read. A 15-year veteran of the Sports Media industry, he believes diving deep inside the numbers is the key to unlocking profitable sports betting opportunities.