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Full Super Bowl 53 Players Props: Find the Best Over/Unders for Each Player

Tom Brady Patriots QB
Tom Brady is averaging 433 passing yards and three touchdowns in his last three Super Bowl appearances. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Super Bowl 53 player props have been released
  • Tom Brady has eclipsed the over on the majority of his props over his last three Super Bowl appearances
  • Which player props offer the most value?

The biggest betting event of the year is only days away, and while quirky Super Bowl props tend to get the biggest headlines:

It’s the traditional player props that yield the most opportunity.

Online sports betting sites like Bovada and MyBookie have released their full lists of player props for us to dissect, and there’s no better place to start than at quarterback, with Jared Goff and the GOAT Tom Brady.

Quarterback Props

Player ATT at Bovada ATT at MyBookie CMP at Bovada CMP at MyBookie YDS at Bovada YDS at MyBookie TD at Bovada TD at MyBookie INT at Bovada INT at MyBookie
Tom Brady 37.5 (O -140 / U +110) 39.5 (O -115 / U -105) 25.5 (O -150 / U +110) 27.5 (O -130 / U +100) 300.5 (O -140 / U +110) 314.5 (O -115 / U -115) 2 (O -140 / U +110) 2.5 (O -105 / U -125) 0.5 (O -125 / U -105) 0.5 (O -135 / U +105)
Jared Goff 37 (O -115 / U -115) 37.5 (O -120 / U -110) 23.5 (O -115 / U -115) 24.5 (O -115 / U -115) 289.5 (O -115 / U -115) 285.5 (O -115 / U -115) 2 (O -115 / U -115) 2 (O -115 / U -115) 0.5 (O -155 / U +125) 0.5 (O -140 / U +110)

*All odds taken 1/30

Brady has been nearly flawless in his last three Super Bowl appearances, completing 67.5% of his passes, while averaging 433 yards and three touchdowns.


The Rams run defense has been lights out in the playoffs, holding the Cowboys and Saints to a combined 98 yards on the ground. If that stellar play continues, Brady will be in line for a heavy workload.

He’s exceeded 40 pass attempts in five straight Super Bowls, and has thrown 90 passes through two games this postseason.

On the other side of the ball, Jared Goff’s statistical production has taken a backseat to the Rams run game. He’s thrown for more than one touchdown once in his last seven starts, and has eclipsed 216 yards just twice in that span.

Throw in the fact that Bill Belichick will have two weeks to scheme against him and I’ll be shorting the Rams QB whenever I can.

Picks:

  • Brady Over Attempts (37.5 Bovada), Completions (25.5 Bovada) and Yards (300.5 Bovada)
  • Goff Under TD (2 MyBookie) and Yards (289.5 Bovada)

Rushing Props

Player RUSH YDS at Bovada RUSH YDS at MyBookie RUSH + REC YDS at Bovada RUSH + REC YDS at MyBookie TD at MyBookie
Sony Michel 80.5 (O -115 / U -115) 77.5 (O -120 / U -110) 84.5 (O -115 / U -115) 82.5 (O -115 / U -115) Yes -200 / No +150
Rex Burkehead 22.5 (O -115 / U -115) 20.5 (O -115 / U -115) 37.5 (O -115 / U -115) 37.5 (O -120 / U -110) Yes +150 / No -200
James White 19.5 (O -115 / U -115) 15.5 (O -125 / U -105) 75.5 (O -115 / U -115) 78.5 (O -115 / U -115) Yes -115 / No -125
Todd Gurley 70.5 (O -115 / U -115) 67.5 (O +105 / U -135) 102.5 (O -115 / U -115) 102.5 (O +100 / U -140) Yes -200 / No +150
Cj Anderson 49.5 (O EVEN / U -130) 49.5 (O -105 / U -125) 55.5 (O -115 / U -115) 54.5 (O -110 / U -120) Yes -125 / No -115

Everyone and their mother is on the Sony Michel rushing yards prop, but I’m a little more bullish on the current state of the Rams rush defense.

If they bottle up Michel early, Bill Belichick isn’t going to morph into Brian Schottenheimer and slam him into the line 25 times. I believe this game sets up better for James White, especially in the pass game.

White is going to be on the field on third down, but he’ll also play the majority of the snaps when the Pats run hurry up, or if they’re trailing. In his past six playoff games, he’s averaging 9.5 targets per contest and the Rams just allowed an 11-catch performance to Alvin Kamara.

In his past six playoff games, [White is] averaging 9.5 targets per contest and the Rams just allowed an 11-catch performance to Alvin Kamara.

On the Rams’ side, it’s tough to predict how they’ll handle the running back touches, but we have to assume that Todd Gurley won’t be limited to just four carries like he was in the NFC Championship game.

LA is a much more dynamic offense with Gurley on the field, and CJ Anderson averaged only 2.8 yards per carry against the Saints.

The Pats linebackers are vulnerable to pass-catching running backs, and after watching Damien Williams torch them for 66 receiving yards and two touchdowns, I think Sean Mcvay will scheme plenty of targets for Gurley, keeping Anderson on the sidelines.

Picks:

  • White Over Rush and Rec Yards (75.5 Bovada)
  • Anderson Under Rush Yards (49.5 MyBookie)

Receiving Props

Player REC YDS at Bovada REC YDS at MyBookie REC at Bovada REC at MyBookie TD at MyBookie
Chris Hogan 40.5 (O -115 / U -115) 39.5 (O -115 / U -105) 3 (O -110 / U -120) 3 (O -130 / U +100) N/A
Philip Dorsett 29.5 (O -115 / U -115) 32.5 (O +105 / U -135) 2.5 (O +110 / U -140) 2.5 (O +130 / U -170) Yes +300 / No -500
Julian Edelman 84.5 (O -125 / U -105) 82.5 (O -135 / U +105) 7 (O -125 / U -105) 7 (O -140 / U +120) Yes -110 / No -123)
Rob Gronkowski 54.5 (O -135 / U +105) 54.5 (O -130 / U +100) 4.5 (O -135 / U +105) 4.5 (O -130 / U +100 Yes +100 / No -140
Josh Reynolds 49.5 (O -115 / U -115) 45.5 (O -120 / U -110) 3.5 (O EVEN / U -130) 3.5 (O -115 / U -115) Yes +200 / No -300
Robert Woods 74.5 (O -120 / U -110) 75.5 (O -115 / U -105) 5.5 (O -155 / U +125) 5.5 (O -160 / U +130) Yes -120 / No -120
Brandin Cooks 70.5 (O -110 / U -120) 73.5 (O +100 / U -130) 5 (O -120 / U -110) 5.5 (O +110 / U -140) Yes -120 / No -120
Tyler Higbee 21.5 (O -120 / U -110) 21.5 (O -140 / U +110) 2.5 (O +105 / U -135) 1.5 (O -170 / U +140) Yes +500 / No -1000

Both the Patriots and Rams are strong in the secondary, especially on the boundary.They combined to limit Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill to five catches for 78 yards in the Conference Championships, and they should be able to each contain the other’s top weapon on the outside.

New England is most likely to attack over the middle, which sets up nicely for both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.

Gronk is fresh off his first double digit target game of the season, and should be able to feast against a defense that’s already surrendered monster games to elite tight ends like Travis Kelce and George Kittle this season.

Edelman, meanwhile, has seen at least 10 targets in five of his last six games, and will line-up primarily in the slot against Nickell Robey-Coleman, who’s allowing a 109.3 passer rating in man coverage this season.

If the past few weeks are any indication, the Pats will likely double Brandin Cooks in order to neutralize LA’s downfield attack. That leaves Josh Reynolds and Robert Woods primarily in single coverage, and Woods in particular, should thrive.


He has at least six catches in five of his last six games, and has seen 32 targets in three career playoff games.
Picks:

  • Gronkowski Over Rec (4.5 MyBookie)
  • Edelman Over Rec Yards (82.5 MyBookie)
  • Cooks Under Rec Yards (73.5 MyBookie)
  • Woods Over Rec (5.5 Bovada)

Defensive Player Props

Player TACK + ASTS at Bovada TACK + ASTS at MyBookie
Aaron Donald 4.5 (O -110 / U -120) N/A
Ndamukong Suh 4.5 (O EVEN / U -130) N/A
Cory Littleton 8 (O -130 / U EVEN) 8 (O -120 / U -110)
Kyle Van Noy 6 (O -140 / U +110) 6.5 (O +120 / U -150)
Devin McCourty 5.5 (O -115 / U -115) 5 (O -125 / U -105)

He may be the most dominant defensive player in the league, but Aaron Donald doesn’t fill up the boxscore unless he’s racking up multiple sacks.

The Patriots have thrown the ball 90 times this postseason without surrendering a sack, and have allowed Brady to be pressured on less than 16% of his drop backs.

Donald has recorded more than four total tackles in just four of 18 games this season, and you can expect New England to sell out to limit his impact.

Pick:

  • Donald Under Tackles + Assists (4.5 Bovada)

Our Super Bowl 53 Props Coverage:

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