- Super Bowl 53 player props have been released
- Tom Brady has eclipsed the over on the majority of his props over his last three Super Bowl appearances
- Which player props offer the most value?
The biggest betting event of the year is only days away, and while quirky Super Bowl props tend to get the biggest headlines:
The only Super Bowl prop bet that matters (via @BovadaOfficial):
Will Maroon 5 play “Sweet Victory” at halftime as a SpongeBob Squarepants tribute?
— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) January 23, 2019
It’s the traditional player props that yield the most opportunity.
Online sports betting sites like Bovada and MyBookie have released their full lists of player props for us to dissect, and there’s no better place to start than at quarterback, with Jared Goff and the GOAT Tom Brady.
All 18 TD passes from Tom Brady’s eight @SuperBowl appearances!
— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2019
|Player||ATT at Bovada||ATT at MyBookie||CMP at Bovada||CMP at MyBookie||YDS at Bovada||YDS at MyBookie||TD at Bovada||TD at MyBookie||INT at Bovada||INT at MyBookie|
|Tom Brady||37.5 (O -140 / U +110)||39.5 (O -115 / U -105)||25.5 (O -150 / U +110)||27.5 (O -130 / U +100)||300.5 (O -140 / U +110)||314.5 (O -115 / U -115)||2 (O -140 / U +110)||2.5 (O -105 / U -125)||0.5 (O -125 / U -105)||0.5 (O -135 / U +105)|
|Jared Goff||37 (O -115 / U -115)||37.5 (O -120 / U -110)||23.5 (O -115 / U -115)||24.5 (O -115 / U -115)||289.5 (O -115 / U -115)||285.5 (O -115 / U -115)||2 (O -115 / U -115)||2 (O -115 / U -115)||0.5 (O -155 / U +125)||0.5 (O -140 / U +110)|
*All odds taken 1/30
Brady has been nearly flawless in his last three Super Bowl appearances, completing 67.5% of his passes, while averaging 433 yards and three touchdowns.
Tom Brady’s name appears 17 times in the Super Bowl record book https://t.co/SvYceQGyb9
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 26, 2019
The Rams run defense has been lights out in the playoffs, holding the Cowboys and Saints to a combined 98 yards on the ground. If that stellar play continues, Brady will be in line for a heavy workload.
He’s exceeded 40 pass attempts in five straight Super Bowls, and has thrown 90 passes through two games this postseason.
Tom Brady’s career Super Bowl grades pic.twitter.com/aBD2XBayUX
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 24, 2019
On the other side of the ball, Jared Goff’s statistical production has taken a backseat to the Rams run game. He’s thrown for more than one touchdown once in his last seven starts, and has eclipsed 216 yards just twice in that span.
— ESPN (@espn) January 29, 2019
Throw in the fact that Bill Belichick will have two weeks to scheme against him and I’ll be shorting the Rams QB whenever I can.
- Brady Over Attempts (37.5 Bovada), Completions (25.5 Bovada) and Yards (300.5 Bovada)
- Goff Under TD (2 MyBookie) and Yards (289.5 Bovada)
|Player||RUSH YDS at Bovada||RUSH YDS at MyBookie||RUSH + REC YDS at Bovada||RUSH + REC YDS at MyBookie||TD at MyBookie|
|Sony Michel||80.5 (O -115 / U -115)||77.5 (O -120 / U -110)||84.5 (O -115 / U -115)||82.5 (O -115 / U -115)||Yes -200 / No +150|
|Rex Burkehead||22.5 (O -115 / U -115)||20.5 (O -115 / U -115)||37.5 (O -115 / U -115)||37.5 (O -120 / U -110)||Yes +150 / No -200|
|James White||19.5 (O -115 / U -115)||15.5 (O -125 / U -105)||75.5 (O -115 / U -115)||78.5 (O -115 / U -115)||Yes -115 / No -125|
|Todd Gurley||70.5 (O -115 / U -115)||67.5 (O +105 / U -135)||102.5 (O -115 / U -115)||102.5 (O +100 / U -140)||Yes -200 / No +150|
|Cj Anderson||49.5 (O EVEN / U -130)||49.5 (O -105 / U -125)||55.5 (O -115 / U -115)||54.5 (O -110 / U -120)||Yes -125 / No -115|
Everyone and their mother is on the Sony Michel rushing yards prop, but I’m a little more bullish on the current state of the Rams rush defense.
If they bottle up Michel early, Bill Belichick isn’t going to morph into Brian Schottenheimer and slam him into the line 25 times. I believe this game sets up better for James White, especially in the pass game.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 29, 2019
White is going to be on the field on third down, but he’ll also play the majority of the snaps when the Pats run hurry up, or if they’re trailing. In his past six playoff games, he’s averaging 9.5 targets per contest and the Rams just allowed an 11-catch performance to Alvin Kamara.
In his past six playoff games, [White is] averaging 9.5 targets per contest and the Rams just allowed an 11-catch performance to Alvin Kamara.
On the Rams’ side, it’s tough to predict how they’ll handle the running back touches, but we have to assume that Todd Gurley won’t be limited to just four carries like he was in the NFC Championship game.
Rams coach Sean McVay on RB Todd Gurley: “He’s gonna be a big part of this game.”
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) January 29, 2019
LA is a much more dynamic offense with Gurley on the field, and CJ Anderson averaged only 2.8 yards per carry against the Saints.
The Pats linebackers are vulnerable to pass-catching running backs, and after watching Damien Williams torch them for 66 receiving yards and two touchdowns, I think Sean Mcvay will scheme plenty of targets for Gurley, keeping Anderson on the sidelines.
- White Over Rush and Rec Yards (75.5 Bovada)
- Anderson Under Rush Yards (49.5 MyBookie)
|Player||REC YDS at Bovada||REC YDS at MyBookie||REC at Bovada||REC at MyBookie||TD at MyBookie|
|Chris Hogan||40.5 (O -115 / U -115)||39.5 (O -115 / U -105)||3 (O -110 / U -120)||3 (O -130 / U +100)||N/A|
|Philip Dorsett||29.5 (O -115 / U -115)||32.5 (O +105 / U -135)||2.5 (O +110 / U -140)||2.5 (O +130 / U -170)||Yes +300 / No -500|
|Julian Edelman||84.5 (O -125 / U -105)||82.5 (O -135 / U +105)||7 (O -125 / U -105)||7 (O -140 / U +120)||Yes -110 / No -123)|
|Rob Gronkowski||54.5 (O -135 / U +105)||54.5 (O -130 / U +100)||4.5 (O -135 / U +105)||4.5 (O -130 / U +100||Yes +100 / No -140|
|Josh Reynolds||49.5 (O -115 / U -115)||45.5 (O -120 / U -110)||3.5 (O EVEN / U -130)||3.5 (O -115 / U -115)||Yes +200 / No -300|
|Robert Woods||74.5 (O -120 / U -110)||75.5 (O -115 / U -105)||5.5 (O -155 / U +125)||5.5 (O -160 / U +130)||Yes -120 / No -120|
|Brandin Cooks||70.5 (O -110 / U -120)||73.5 (O +100 / U -130)||5 (O -120 / U -110)||5.5 (O +110 / U -140)||Yes -120 / No -120|
|Tyler Higbee||21.5 (O -120 / U -110)||21.5 (O -140 / U +110)||2.5 (O +105 / U -135)||1.5 (O -170 / U +140)||Yes +500 / No -1000|
Both the Patriots and Rams are strong in the secondary, especially on the boundary.They combined to limit Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill to five catches for 78 yards in the Conference Championships, and they should be able to each contain the other’s top weapon on the outside.
New England is most likely to attack over the middle, which sets up nicely for both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.
Rob Gronkowski is now the first tight end in NFL history with 1,000+ receiving yards in the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/LWYeLLzJyI
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) January 20, 2019
Gronk is fresh off his first double digit target game of the season, and should be able to feast against a defense that’s already surrendered monster games to elite tight ends like Travis Kelce and George Kittle this season.
Edelman, meanwhile, has seen at least 10 targets in five of his last six games, and will line-up primarily in the slot against Nickell Robey-Coleman, who’s allowing a 109.3 passer rating in man coverage this season.
Julian Edelman is the league’s highest-graded wide receiver in the postseason after a ridiculous effort in the Conference Championship pic.twitter.com/EFO9gNQvoS
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 24, 2019
If the past few weeks are any indication, the Pats will likely double Brandin Cooks in order to neutralize LA’s downfield attack. That leaves Josh Reynolds and Robert Woods primarily in single coverage, and Woods in particular, should thrive.
.@JaredGoff16‘s FIFTH TD of the night!
— NFL (@NFL) September 28, 2018
He has at least six catches in five of his last six games, and has seen 32 targets in three career playoff games.
- Gronkowski Over Rec (4.5 MyBookie)
- Edelman Over Rec Yards (82.5 MyBookie)
- Cooks Under Rec Yards (73.5 MyBookie)
- Woods Over Rec (5.5 Bovada)
Defensive Player Props
|Player||TACK + ASTS at Bovada||TACK + ASTS at MyBookie|
|Aaron Donald||4.5 (O -110 / U -120)||N/A|
|Ndamukong Suh||4.5 (O EVEN / U -130)||N/A|
|Cory Littleton||8 (O -130 / U EVEN)||8 (O -120 / U -110)|
|Kyle Van Noy||6 (O -140 / U +110)||6.5 (O +120 / U -150)|
|Devin McCourty||5.5 (O -115 / U -115)||5 (O -125 / U -105)|
He may be the most dominant defensive player in the league, but Aaron Donald doesn’t fill up the boxscore unless he’s racking up multiple sacks.
The Patriots have thrown the ball 90 times this postseason without surrendering a sack, and have allowed Brady to be pressured on less than 16% of his drop backs.
The Patriots offensive line has kicked it into high gear this postseason so far. Will they be able to keep that up against the Rams pass-rush in the Super Bowl? pic.twitter.com/PREisOTOW6
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 28, 2019
Donald has recorded more than four total tackles in just four of 18 games this season, and you can expect New England to sell out to limit his impact.
- Donald Under Tackles + Assists (4.5 Bovada)
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Let's have fun and keep it civil.