Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa Both Given Better Odds to Win 2020 NFL MVP Than Mitchell Trubisky

• Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are considered top-tier quarterbacks that will be selected in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft
• Mitchell Trubisky, a first round selection in the 2017 NFL Draft, has struggled in the pro ranks
• Follow below for a breakdown of this absurdity

Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa have not spent a single day employed by an NFL team. They haven’t signed an NFL contract, heard their name called in an NFL draft or even partaken in a pro day for NFL scouts.

And yet, in what is both a vote of confidence for them and an affront to the Chicago Bears, the pair of rookies-to-be are receiving better 2020 NFL MVP odds than Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

2020 NFL MVP odds

Odds taken Feb. 5

How the Mighty (Draft Pick) Has Fallen

Trubisky entered the NFL with substantial hype in 2017 after the Bears traded up to draft him No. 2 overall.

He struggled his first year, as rookies tend to do, but bounced back as a sophomore and led the Bears to a division title (and earned himself a trip to the Pro Bowl).

It's Pro Bowl week so here is your first annual reminder Mitch Trubisky couldn't complete a pass over a glass panel pic.twitter.com/W1GDENH4bw

— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) January 21, 2020

The 2019 season was supposed to be a time when the Bears, among the favorites for Super Bowl 54, would put it all together. Instead, Trubisky — and, consequently, Chicago — face-planted.

Mitchell Trubisky Stats, 2018-19 Seasons

Trubisky missed one week (and the majority of another game) with a separated non-throwing shoulder. Unfortunately for him, his throwing shoulder didn’t have much luck, either.

#Bears–#Packers: End zone angle on the Trubisky INT. Eyes are locked-in on the corner route. That puts S Adrian Amos in a position to break on the ball & overlap the route. @NFLMatchup pic.twitter.com/Ey9a06VMTH

— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) September 6, 2019

Before the 2019 season began, Trubisky had +3825 odds to win NFL MVP (that would place him 14th among the current group, instead of his current spot tied for 31st).

He followed up with a dud of a season, including eight starts with fewer than 230 passing yards and only four games with multiple touchdown passes.

What’s Ahead For Trubisky?

It seems like there’s nowhere to go but up, right?

Trubisky enters the 2021 season in the final year of his contract, which is likely daunting and motivating at the same time (he does have a fifth-year option worth more than $24 million, but it’s not looking great for him on that front right now).

The Bears have said they’re committed to Trubisky, which isn’t saying much, given that 33-year-old Chase Daniel is the alternative. But it at least means he’ll have a chance to put up numbers.

GM Ryan Pace announces the #Bears plan is for Mitch Trubisky to be the starting QB in 2020.

— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) December 31, 2019

Assessing the Young Guns

What Burrow and Tagovailoa have is skill and promise. What they don’t have is a guarantee.

Burrow, the Heisman Trophy winner, is projected by many to go No. 1 overall to the hapless Cincinnati Bengals, who went 2-14 last year. Tagovailoa has been pegged as a target for the Miami Dolphins (who went 5-11 in 2019), even if they have to trade up to get him.

3. Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
10. Browns: Mekhi Becton
22. Lions: Jordan Love

@PFF_Mike:https://t.co/E5ErkhaSru

— PFF (@PFF) February 4, 2020

Assuming the circumstances play out this way, can either quarterback reasonably put up MVP-caliber numbers in year one on bad football teams? Probably not.

It’s an especially tricky question for Tagovailoa, who dislocated his hip in November. That ended his college season and created speculation about when he’d be able to play again (and how effective he’d be).

"He was screaming in pain as medical training staff had to pick him up and carry him off the cart." @MollyAMcGrath said the first report is that Tua Tagovailoa suffered an injury to his right hip vs. Mississippi State. pic.twitter.com/ppMJykMq9N

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 16, 2019

He spoke publicly about his situation last week, but didn’t say anything definitive. There’s a very reasonable chance that he makes a full recovery — but it’s still too soon to tell.

Tua Tagovailoa went on FS1 today and talked about his injury. He said that they are **still not sure** what his long term prognosis is, but they will find out in about a week.

He's not quite out of the woods yet. pic.twitter.com/Y3In4Qa4ad

— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) January 30, 2020

Decision Time

So, who’s going to win the 2020 NFL MVP? Will it be the first-round bust, the guy with a bad hip of the Heisman Trophy winner? The answer, almost certainly, is none of them!

If you had to pick one, Trubisky still makes the most sense (not just because only one rookie has ever won the MVP — Jim Brown in 1957). Trubisky is already the starter, he already knows the playbook, he already knows life in the NFL and so on.

Mitch Trubisky dropping DIMES on that drive for the Bears touchdown!

(Via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/yqTklVxZaC

— PFF (@PFF) January 7, 2019

With that said, don’t hitch your wagon to any of these guys. Look higher on the list, at Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson, and give yourself a chance.