Mahomes Takes Commanding Lead in NFL MVP Odds – Given 80% Chance to Win After Week 12

Patrick Mahomes on the run
Tampa Bay Buccaneers outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul (90) chases Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mark LoMoglio)
  • Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the now the -400 favorite to be named the NFL MVP
  • Those odds work out to an 80% chance that he’ll win the award after his Week 12 performance vs Tampa Bay
  • See updated MVP odds following Week 12’s Sunday slate below

Patrick Mahomes is 25 years old. Into his third season as starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs, already Mahomes has won NFL MVP (2018), the Super Bowl in 2019 and was named Super Bowl MVP.

And he’s just getting started.

Sunday saw Mahomes turning in another spectacular performance as the Chiefs downed Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 27-24. He passed for 429 yards and three touchdowns. The Kansas City QB completed 37 of 49 pass attempts, posting a passer rating of 124.7.

Mahomes also ran away and hid from his pursuers in the race to be named MVP of the 2020 NFL season. He’s now at -400 in the NFL MVP odds. That gives him an 80% probability of winning the award.

2020 NFL MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) -400
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +600
Russell Wilson (Seahawks) +750
Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) +2000
Josh Allen (Bills) +4000
Derrick Henry (Titans) +4000
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) +5000
Ryan Tannehill (Titans) +8000
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +10000
Alvin Kamara (Saints) +10000
Deshaun Watson (Texans) +10000

Odds as of November 30th at FanDuel

A week ago, Mahomes was the -134 chalk. Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (+319) was the second betting choice.

Legend of Mahomes Growing

Two things about Mahomes – he doesn’t stand pat and he seldom stands still. He just keeps moving on up and impressing everyone along the way.

Sunday was billed as a showdown between the GOAT – Brady – and the heir apparent to that title. Facing Tampa Bay’s #1-ranked run defense on the road, the Chiefs literally threw caution to the wind.

They didn’t try to even pretend that they were going to run the ball. They put the game in the hands of Mahomes and he led an all-out assault on the Buccaneers pass defense.

As great as Brady’s legend is, he didn’t earn his first MVP until his seventh season as starter. It took him 10 seasons to put a pair of MVP awards on his mantle.

Certainly, Mahomes has work to do to lay claim to Brady’s title as the best of all-time. Yet no one can dispute that he’s clearly laying the groundwork to ascend to that title.

Wilson Fading Back

For all its faults, it was appearing as if 2020 was finally going to be the year of Wilson. Then the gales of November came and Wilson’s season fell apart so spectacularly that Gordon Lightfoot was tempted to write a song about it.

A little under three weeks ago, Wilson was the NFL MVP chalk. The Seahawks QB sat with average betting odds of +120 to win the award.

Wilson’s downfall actually commenced Oct. 25. That night, the 5-0 Seahawks were knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten by the Arizona Cardinals.

As a team, they’ve gone 2-3 since. Wilson has thrown for 11 TDs against seven interceptions. He’s also lost three fumbles and been sacked 18 times.

Wilson has passed for 300 yards just twice in his past six games. His passer rating has hit 100 only two times in that span.

Mr Rodgers’ Neighborhood

Packers fans will no doubt be beating the drum for Rodgers. He turned in another stellar performance Sunday night as Green Bay throttled the Chicago Bears.

Rodgers passed for 211 yards and four TDs. However, if comparing the two, Mahomes wins.

When Rodgers and the Packers traveled to Tampa Bay this season, the Green Bay QB didn’t complete a TD pass, was sacked four times and picked off twice. The Bucs won 38-10.

Stand With Pat

As tempting as it might be to grab some value on Wilson or Rodgers, you’d merely be making a donation to your favorite sportsbook. They might as well go ahead and inscribe Mahomes’ name on the NFL MVP award right now.

In the past four games for the 10-1 Chiefs, he’s thrown for 1,598 yards, 14 TDs and one interception. His passer rating is averaging 123.4.  Mahomes is also averaging 399.5 yards and 3.5 TDs per game in those four contests.

When it comes to the 2020 NFL MVP, it’s no contest. Stand with Pat and you’ll be a winner.

You won’t win much, mind you, but a win is a win nonetheless.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) -400.

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