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NFL Divisional Round ATS Picks: Navigating Through Some Hefty Spreads

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 5:33 PM PST

Tyus Bowser Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens linebacker Tyus Bowser (54) celebrates with teammates after making an interception against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half of an NFL football game, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2020, in Pittsburgh. (AP Photo/Don Wright)
  • Vikings seek another upset against top-seeded 49ers
  • Derrick Henry tries to run past Lamar Jackson and league-best Ravens
  • Playoff record: 2-2; Regular Season Final Record: 33-35-1

So much for the hottest team in the NFL going heading into Wild Card Weekend. The Vikings snuffed that run out, in NOLA, no less, in a weekend that saw the Patriots bow out, Deshaun Watson play superman in OT, and the Seahawks douse the Eagles’ mash unit. All that equalled up to a 2-2 weekend for us.

This is the last four-game pack of the year, and there are some hefty betting lines to navigate. We’ll start in the Bay, where the Vikings are looking to send the NFC’s top seed packing.

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers

Team Spread Odds
Minnesota Vikings +7 (-114)
San Francisco 49ers -7 (-104)

*Odds from January 8

Analysis: Was Kirk Cousins’ performance in New Orleans the start of a Joe Flacco-like run, where he catches lightning in a bottle and takes Minnesota to the heights they can go only if he’s in prime form? Or was that the one blip in the radar of a pivot that notoriously can’t get it done in the clutch?

Cousins saved his best in overtime, hitting a bomb to Adam Thielen to the goal line, before a corner fade to Kyle Rudolph ended it.

You can almost pencil Dalvin Cook to do the heavy lifting, as he went for 94 yards on the ground and two scores, while also chipping in with 36 yards receiving. Minnesota loves to pound the rock, with only two teams attempting more totes per game than Minny’s 30.4 in the NFL this season.

Throw in the fact that the defense is talented enough to, at the very least, keep them in games, and it’s always come down to the Vikes needing star play at pivot to put them over the top.

As for the Niners, what defense will show up? San Fran ended the year second in defensive DVOA, and eighth overall in scoring defense, holding teams to 19.4 points per game. But in the last 10 games, teams were able to find their way against what seemed like an impenetrable D at the start of the year.

Opponents scored 25 points or better in six of their final 10 games of the year.

If Jimmy Garoppolo suffers any opening playoff game jitters, Minnesota could jump ahead before San Francisco’s offense finds its legs. But Jimmy G does have the league’s second-best running game in the league at his disposal, which is a big weapon so long as they’re not in a hole early.

While I do believe the Niners take this, they’re 3-4-1 ATS at home this year. This Vikings team is built for the playoffs, and the points help you here.

The Pick: Vikings +7 (-114)

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens

Team Spread Odds
Tennessee Titans +9.5 (-109)
Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (-109)

Analysis: Tennessee just knocked off the defending Super Bowl champs, and their reward is a date with Baltimore Ravens, who are currently riding a 12-game winning streak and feature the league’s most electric player and consensus MVP in Lamar Jackson.

But the Titans aren’t your average sixth seed. They are carried by the hulking NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, who trampled New England with 182 yards on 34 carries and a TD. Part of that is that he’s really good, but also because the Patriots were so concerned with Ryan Tannehill they were willing to take their chances going hat-on-hat to stop Henry.

Tannehill was almost a non-factor against the Patriots, but he did still make clutch throws, including an opening drive strike that set the tone for the game.

His stats stack well for a guy who took over the reins in Week 7. Tannehill ranks third in completion percentage at 70.3%, while leading the league in both average yards per pass attempt (9.6) and QB rating (117.5). And while Jackson is an incredible talent with stats through the roof, Tannehill graded out as Pro Football Focus’ top QB.

The Ravens are a machine, averaging 33.2 points per game in the regular season, gashing the opposition by leading the league with over 200 yards rushing a contest, while also throwing for better than 200 yards a game — the first team to accomplish that in NFL history. It all revolves around Jackson, who set an NFL record for rushing yards by a QB with 1,206, while also leading the league with 36 TD passes.

The Ravens should also have a healthy Mark Andrews in the fold, as their stud tight end has been battling nagging injuries all season. The same might not be able to be said for Mark Ingram, who suffered a calf injury in Week 16 against the Browns.

While the Ravens’ offense gets most of the shine, their defense allowed just 17.6 points per game, and got stronger down the stretch, helping Baltimore roll to a 9-1 ATS mark in their final 10 games of the year.

But Tennessee has all the elements to keep this close. You can call me an idiot after this blowout, but I like the Titans and the points.

The Pick: Titans +9.5 (-109)

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Team Spread Odds
Houston Texans +9.5 (-109)
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 (-109)

Analysis: Deshaun Watson single-handedly dragged his Texans past the feisty Bills and their A+ defense to get to this round, and he’s going to need even more magic to get past a Chiefs team that is surging — and should be considered one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.

KC is led by all-world pivot Patrick Mahomes, who fought off nagging ankle injuries and a dislocated kneecap to return to MVP form. The Chiefs rattled off six straight wins to move into the 2-seed in the AFC, with an offense that’s putting up 28.2 points a game and racking up just under 380 yards of total offense.

The real surprise is a Chiefs defense that has performed like a top unit to close out the season. During their six-game win streak, they’ve limited teams to just 11.5 points per game, and have registered 13 sacks over their last five.

This might be too much for Watson to overcome, especially if Will Fuller still can’t go because of a hamstring injury. Fuller in the lineup supercharges the offense, a vertical threat that stretches the defense and allows DeAndre Hopkins to feast all over the field.

While the return of JJ Watt inspired Houston’s defense and helped in the comeback, holding Josh Allen to a paltry 5.8 yards per completion and a 52.1% completion percentage, Mahomes brings elite talent and a devastating set of of weapons to the table. He also averaged 8.3 yards per completion at a 65.9% completion clip on the season.

The Texans needed overtime to get to 22 points, and if the Chiefs defense continues to play at their current pace, Watson won’t be able to outscore their problems.

The Pick: Chiefs -9.5 (-109)

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

Team Spread Odds
Seattle Seahawks +4 (-109)
Green Bay Packers -4 (-109)

Analysis: The divisional playoff wraps up with what oddsmakers feel is the closest-matched contest, with the Seahawks in Green Bay to take on the Packers. Seattle hung on to oust the Eagles last week, their 11th win by one possession or less this season, making them the clutchest of the remaining teams left in the playoffs.

Russell Wilson flashed that MVP form that had deserted him in the tail end of the regular season against the Eagles. With their running game stalled, he accounted for 95% of Seattle’s output in Philly, icing the game with a bomb to DK Metcalf.

Still, facing a defense with Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith able to apply pressure, he’ll need better support. That’s probably why head coach Pete Carroll emphasized getting Marshawn Lynch more touches this week. He and Travis Homer combined for just 19 yards on 17 carries.

Running the ball with Aaron Jones is likely a big part of the recipe for the Packers. Jones tied for the league lead with 16 rushing touchdowns, and was the key figure in their offense all season. In their 13 wins, he gained better than 110 yards from scrimmage. In their three losses, he managed just 42.

Of course, they do have Aaron Rodgers, but he’s had a pedestrian year by his standards. His 323-yard passing performance in Week 17 was the first time he surpassed 243 yards passing since Week 8, and three of those games he went for under 200.

The real key might be the turnover battle. The Seahawks had 32 takeaways in the regular season, good for third, while the Pack was seventh with 25.

The Hawks have won seven road games this year, while the Pack have the same amount at home. Something’s gotta give.

The Pick: Seahawks +4 (-109)

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