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NFL Wild Card Weekend ATS Picks: Trust Russ to Get it Done Against the Eagles

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 5:34 PM PST

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson throwing a football during a NFL game.
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) in action against the Los Angeles Rams during an NFL wild-card playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)
  • Seahawks only road team favored on Wild Card Weekend
  • Patriots making first Wild Card appearance since 2009, in tough vs Titans
  • ATS Week 17 Record: 4-0; 2019 Regular Season Final Record: 33-35-1

It took until the end of the regular season, but we finally banged out a perfect week of picks. The goal now is going perfect in back-to-back weeks, and what better way than for you to cash in on Wild Card Weekend. It’s a rare AFC Saturday and NFC Sunday Wild Card slate, so we’ll start in the AFC in H-Town, where the Texans host a legit upstart franchise.

Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

Team Spread Odds
Buffalo Bills +2.5 (+101)
Houston Texans -2.5 (-119)

Odds from January 1.

Analysis: You could make the case that DeAndre Hopkins is the best receiver in the NFL, but Will Fuller is the most vital receiver on the Texans. Fuller’s deep-play ability unlocks the rest of the field, allowing Deshaun Watson to spin it to all areas. Let’s get advanced nerdy: A player’s Expected Points Added (or EPA), is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Watson’s EPA splits with and without Fuller is off the charts.

Unfortunately, Fuller literally can’t stay healthy, and he’s coming off a groin injury that will probably limit him in this contest. And that opens the door to a Bills team that plays old-school, sporting a rugged defense that ranks No. 5 in defensive DVOA and No. 2 in points allowed, while relying on a run-heavy approach that ranks eighth in the NFL, putting up 128.4 yards a game.

They also have a true gamer in Josh Allen at quarterback, who’s Lamar Jackson-lite as he’s very talented running the ball, rushing for 510 yards and nine TD’s. Unfortunately, it’s a limited passing game that ranks 26th which will eventually be their undoing.

This might be the toughest game of the weekend to call. Buffalo has a great defense, and Watson was sacked 44 times this year, the fifth most in the NFL. They also have the defensive backfield to potentially neutralize Hopkins and company.

 

The Bills were a sparkling 6-0-2 ATS this year, against a Texans’ team that was just 2-6 ATS at home. I know it’s hard to go with the Bills and their 31st-ranked offense against a Texans team that ranked fourth, but Buffalo’s defense is that legit.

The Pick: Bills +2.5 (+101)

Tennessee Titans vs New England Patriots

Team Spread Odds
Tennessee Titans +5 (-109)
New England Patriots -5 (-109)

Analysis: The Patriots enter this one on a major letdown, losing to the 5-11 Dolphins in Week 17 to lose the bye, and let journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick torch one of the best defenses in the NFL for the first 300+ yard passing game in 25 outings.

They have a legitimate battle on their hands Saturday, hosting a Titans’ squad that is 7-3 in the 10 games started by a resurgent Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill took over full-time for Marcus Mariota and lit the league on fire, posting a career-best 117.5 passer rating to lead the NFL. He completed 70.3% of his passes and averaged 9.6 yards per attempt, joining Joe Montana and Sammy Baugh as the only three players to hit those marks in NFL history.

He also has the luxury of handing it to the league’s premier running back. Derrick Henry led the league in rushing with 1,540 yards, and they trailed just the Ravens and 49ers in rushing yards per game at 138.9.

The Patriots don’t lose often, but they bounce back quickly. Since 2003, New England is 46-9 (.836) in regular-season games following a loss. As a starter, Tom Brady is 48-13 in games after a loss.

Does Brady have another gear in the playoffs? His completion 60.8% completion rate was his lowest since 2013 and his 88.0 QB rating was the lowest since an 87.9 mark in 2006. With only James White and an aging Julian Edelman as reliable passing options, this is easily the most limited offensive unit the Patriots have had since Brady’s first few seasons as a starter.

This battle might come down to red zone wills. The Titans converted better than 75% of their trips inside the opposition 20-yard line into majors, which led the NFL. The Patriots excelled in this category as well, limiting teams from scoring touchdowns on 48.3% of trips, which was fourth-best in the NFL.

While you can never count out a Bill Belichick-led team, you can definitely take the points and move on with a W.

The Pick: Titans +5 (-109)

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

Team Spread Odds
Minnesota Vikings +8 (-114)
New Orleans Saints -8 (-104)

Analysis: As my colleague Robert Duff points out, there was no team more potent offensively to end the year than the New Orleans Saints. They’re led by an offense featuring hall of fame pivot Drew Brees and receiver Michael Thomas, who just completed the most prolific pass-catching season in NFL history.

Their third-ranked scoring offense, which puts up 28.6 points a game is aided by a top-10 defense, which has helped the Saints end the regular season with three straight wins by more than a three-TD margin (23 points per game).

The Vikings are a team, however, that could be an enticing wager. Assuming Dalvin Cook is a go as he’s been dealing with chest and shoulder ailments, Minnesota intends to pound the rock: they ran better than 49% of the time, which was the third highest mark in the NFL.

They’ll need to establish that ground game to allow Kirk Cousins to take shots down the field to the dynamic receiving duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Cousins is coming off a remarkably underrated year, throwing for 3,603 yards on a 69.1% completion clip, tossing 26 TD’s to just six interceptions.

Even with Cousins at his best, Drew Brees at home this year is off-the-charts good. He’s throwing for better than 332 yards a contest at home to just 196.4 away from the Superdome, while throwing 17 majors to three interceptions. He’s completing 77.5% of his passes, including an insane 29-for-30 performance against the Colts.

Talented edge-rush bookends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, who combined for 22.5 sacks on the year, need find a way to disrupt that New Orleans rhythm.

The Saints were a bettors friend this year, going 11-5 ATS for the season, including 8-4 ATS within the conference. New Orleans has won their last four home games by nearly 15 points a game. This trend continues.

The Pick: Saints -8 (-104)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks

Team Spread Odds
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-104)
Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 (-114)

Analysis: This features the only road favorite of Wild Card Weekend in the visiting Seahawks. The Eagles are on a roll, closing out the year with four straight wins to bag the NFC East title, despite fielding a roster with so many holes it’s a surprise they didn’t sink when they were 5-7.

The Eagles’ injury list is a who’s who of legitimate talent: receivers Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson and Nelson Agholor, defensive lineman Malik Jackson, defensive backs Jaken Mills and Ronald Darby, offensive lineman Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks and running backs Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders.

What they do have are a bunch of replacement-level players punching above their weight class (hello, Boston Scott!), a remarkably stout defense with a standout front seven that continues to win battles along the line of scrimmage and Carson Wentz, the glue to this patchwork roster, who’ll be making his playoff debut Sunday.

Wentz managed to throw for over 4,000 yards while completing 65.9% of his passes, tossing 27 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. That’s an all-star year, and that’s before pro-rating the numbers due to a lack of starting-caliber skill players.

Hard to imagine, but Seattle has an even longer injury list than the Eagles, with season-ending ailments to their entire running back room, forcing them to turn to retired Marshawn Lynch and rookie Travis Homer.

For a team that likes to run so much, that doesn’t bode well for an Eagles defense that tied with the Patriots for fewest rushing yards allowed per home game (77.2).

But what they do have is the likely MVP runner-up in pivot Russell Wilson. After the ‘Hawks were criticized for keeping Wilson largely caged last year with a criminal 427 pass attempts, Seattle allowed their prized possession to spin a little bit more, though his 516 attempts this year was still only 13th in the NFL.

Again, he worked magic with what he had, throwing for 4,110 yards, while finishing second in TD passes with 31, and just five interceptions. Run-pass balance might not be an option in this one, but that shouldn’t be a bad thing for Wilson, who should be able to put up points and stomp out this Eagles mash unit.

The Pick: Seahawks -1.5 (-104)

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