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NFL Week 17 ATS Picks: The Raiders Can’t Possibly Make the Playoffs, Can They?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 6:43 PM PDT

Derek Carr fist pump
The Oakland Raiders need a ton of help to get into the playoffs - including beating the Broncos in Denver in their regular season finale. Photo from @RAIDERS_PR (Twitter).
  • Raiders need a win in Denver and lots of help to clinch playoff berth
  • Patriots trying to hold off surging Chiefs for No. 2 seed in AFC
  • ATS Week 16 Record: 1-3; Overall 2019 Record: 29-35-1

Talk about getting gutted at the worst possible time. Save for the Ravens taking care of business, the rest of the field stacked a bunch of L’s in Week 16, including the Steelers watching their playoff hopes slide to the brink, and the Cowboys losing control of their own destiny.

With .500 out of reach, we’re aiming for a perfect week to end the regular season in style. We’ll start in the Mile High City, where an unlikely scenario is brewing for the Silver and Black.

Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Team Spread
Oakland Raiders +3.5 (-119)
Denver Broncos -3.5 (+101)

*Odds from December 26

Analysis: For the Raiders to even be in this position is already a masterstroke of fate. To have Week 17’s AFC West tilt with the Broncos have any playoff implications, here’s what needed to happen in Week 16: Raiders win, Steelers, Titans and Browns lose, and Colts win. Wildly enough, every single one of those happened, meaning Oakland is again the longest of long shots to steal a playoff spot this week.

This week’s cocktail of madness requires losses by the Titans and Steelers, a win by the Colts and at least one win by the Patriots, Bears, Chargers and Lions – not to mention winning in Denver. How Derek Carr performs will likely be the key, as leading rusher Josh Jacobs battles a shoulder fracture that’s forced him to miss two of his last three games. The rookie has rushed for 1,150 yards in just 13 games this year.

Carr has been getting it done in the clutch, posting a 129.6 passer rating on third downs, the highest in the NFL since Aaron Rodgers had a 133.5 rating in 2009. He’s struggled in cool temperatures, however, losing his last nine starts when the temperature dips below 50 degrees Fahrenheit. The Denver forecast calls for a temperature of 36 degrees by kickoff.

The Raiders’ defense is coming off a run-stopping show against the Chargers last week, holding them to 19 yards rushing as a team. That’s the eighth time they’ve done that this season. Broncos’ RB Phillip Lindsay is just 42 yards away from breaking 1,000 for the season. Meanwhile, Drew Lock is 3-1 since being thrust into the starting lineup, and will look to improve to 3-0 at home.

Denver is 5-2 at home against the spread and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall and would love nothing better than to finish the year with the same mark as the Raiders. It would be so Raiders to have everything fall into place, and not have them handle their part of the equation.

The Pick: Broncos -3.5 (+101)

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Team Spread
Miami Dolphins +16 (-109)
New England Patriots -16 (-109)

Analysis: Halley’s comet returns to earth sightlines every 75 years – similar to the timelines around the Patriots having to play a meaningful regular season finale. Yet here we are in Week 17, and New England needs a win to lock down the second seed in the AFC, and their 10th straight first round playoff bye.

Pats fans are hoping Tom Brady’s last outing was the turnaround performance to get geared up for the postseason. He went 26-for-33 for 271 yards and a TD. If that line looks rather pedestrian, consider his output in recent weeks. His completion percentage of 78.8% was the first time he’d gone better than 56% since Week 9.

Prior to this game, he had thrown for 190 yards or less in three of his past four outings, and his 8.21 yards per attempt was the first time he’d been in the eight-yard range since Week 6.

The Patriots will also lean on their No. 1-ranked defense, which has been the dominant unit for Bill Belichick this season. They’ll be looking to hold down the opposing QB to under 300 yards passing for the 25th straight game.

Forget the Dolphins’ 4-11 record, as they’re a game bunch, and are 4-1 in their last five games decided by one score or less. They’ve also got a wildly unpredictable Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, who’s coming off a 400+ yard, four TD passing game — the first Dolphin pivot to turn that trick since Dan Marino.

Fitzpatrick’s 1,845 passing yards the last six weeks is second in the NFL over that span, and he’s found nice chemistry with DeVante Parker, who’s finally turned into the franchise receiver many expected, with 1,000+ yards receiving and nine TDs this season.

New England needs the win, but they don’t have the weapons to bury the Fins. They’re also just 3-3-1 at home ATS, while Miami is 4-3 ATS away from home. Take the visitor and the generous point total.

The Pick: Dolphins +16 (-109)

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Team Spread
Los Angeles Chargers +9 (-114)
Kansas City Chiefs -9 (-104)

Analysis: The Chiefs are going to be Dolphins fans this weekend, because a Miami upset and a KC win gives the Chiefs that 2-seed and first round bye — assuming they can beat the Chargers, a divisional foe headed for yet another disappointing season.

The Chiefs have dominated the AFC West, clinching their fourth straight division crown, racking up an impressive 27-3 mark in their last 30 games within the division, including a 10-1 mark against Los Angeles in their last 11.

While Baltimore has set the NFL on fire, the Chiefs have quietly become one of the top threats to win the AFC. Since losing his first start after returning from a dislocated knee, Patrick Mahomes has guided KC to five straight wins, oddly enough without having thrown for more than two TD’s in any of those contests.

An abomination to start the year, their defense has really come on strong, particularly the last two weeks, having not allowed a TD, while surrendering just four majors in their last five games.

They will be catching Chargers’ pivot Philip Rivers at one of his career low-points: the veteran, who will become a free-agent after this season, has accounted for 24 turnovers, including 18 interceptions, which ranks second-worst in the NFL.

While one last shootout would be a good way to go out, this appears more like a business-as-usual Mahomes outing, coupled with a steady defensive effort for a team that’s a sparkling 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and 10-5 ATS overall.

The pick: Chiefs -9 (-104)

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Team Spread
Tennessee Titans -3.5 (-109)
Houston Texans +3.5 (-109)

Analysis: We close it out with a Titans’ team desperate to clinch a playoff berth needing a win against the Texans, a divisional rival that’s already captured the AFC South crown, locked up a home playoff berth, and has only choice of opponent to play for in Week 17.

Tennessee will lean their hopes on QB Ryan Tannehill, who has slowed after a 6-1 surge to replace an ineffective Marcus Mariota, dropping two straight starts against these same Texans and the Saints. Even in those losses, Tannehill has been playing the best football of his career, and is trying to clinch the first postseason appearance of his career.

They’ll also be relying on hulking running back Derrick Henry, who’s been battling a hamstring injury that forced him to miss last week’s loss to New Orleans. Prior to that, Henry had rushed for over 100 yards in four of his previous five starts, and had scored a TD in five of his last six.

Any other game of the season, and this line would be flipped, but with little to be earned for the Texans, it would be ludicrous for Bill O’Brien to dress any player of significance in this one, no matter how much he likes competing.

With that in mind, you’ll see the glaring deficiencies of a Houston lineup that really can’t afford injuries, as their backups can’t sustain even at an average player replacement-level. With that in mind, don’t expect the Texans to come close to their 24+ point per game average in this one.

The pick: Titans -3.5 (-109)

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