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NFL Week 16 ATS Picks: Lamar and the Ravens Seeking Revenge in Cleveland

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 10:58 AM PDT

Lamar Jackson hands off to Mark Ingram
Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens' high-octane offense into Cleveland to play the Browns in Week 16. Photo from @ForbesSports (Twitter).
  • Ravens try to lock up top seed in AFC against slumping Browns
  • Eagles and Cowboys battle for NFC East crown
  • ATS Week 15 Record: 1-3; Overall 2019 Record: 28-32-1

We had a real chance of climbing back into the black with our ATS picks in Week 15. Those plans got sledgehammered early and often. The Bills went “Duck” hunting in Pittsburgh, the Niners played down to the Falcons and I’ll remember the Titans … for letting Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins ruin them and our bets.

We’ve got a couple of weeks to finish .500 or better with our picks, and we intend to get there – as early as this week. Let’s start with a coronation in Cleveland.

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns

Team Spread Odds
Baltimore Ravens -10 (-109)
Cleveland Browns +10 (-109)

*Odds from December 19

Analysis: Hard to believe that the last team to beat the Ravens is the Browns, who somehow crushed Baltimore 40-25 way back in Week 4. John Harbaugh teams always play hard, but the added incentive of avenging their worst L of the year, coupled with a chance to clinch home field throughout the playoffs in the AFC, tells me the Ravens are going to put a hurting on the home team.

Lamar Jackson the running back currently ranks eighth in the NFL with 1,103 yards rushing, but leads the pack with a hefty 6.9 yard-per-tote average, and is tied for tops on runs of 20 or more yards. And when he’s not moonlighting at his side gig, Jackson the quarterback leads the league with 33 TD passes. He’s the ultimate dual threat pivot, and the runaway winner for MVP if he didn’t take another snap this season.

 

The Ravens’ ground game, averaging 200 yards a contest, will pound the Browns. In a 38-24 loss to the lowly Cardinals, Kenyan Drake ran for 137 yards and four TDs. The guy had a total of 170 yards rushing in his last four games total, and no touchdowns.

Across the field, Baker Mayfield has been a disaster this season, with 17 TD passes and 17 interceptions. They’ve wasted a super season from Nick Chubb, who is the current rushing leader.

The Ravens lead the league in scoring at better than 33 points a game, and they’ve topped 40 in four of their last six. This game drives the final stake into the Freddie Kitchens era.

The Pick: Ravens -10 (-109)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Team Spread Odds
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (-109)
New York Jets +3 (+101)

Analysis: How badly does Le’Veon Bell want to crush the playoff hopes of his former team? The Jets’ much-maligned free agent acquisition has been bottled up in the Big Apple, with his 87-yard rushing effort in a blowout loss last week to the Ravens his season-best. Prior to that, Bell had rushed for 70 yards of less in every other game.

Pittsburgh can make the math easy for themselves: win their last two games, and they’re into the playoffs. Lots of talk drilling Duck Hodges, who was pretty bad tossing four interceptions in a loss to the Bills, but this was the first game in weeks that the Steelers’ defense wasn’t big play.

While they did record an interception, they had just one sack of Josh Allen all day.

Pittsburgh will need to get the running game going if they expect to take this patchwork roster into the postseason. When they rush for better than 100 yards as a team, Pittsburgh is 5-0. They’re 3-6 when they can’t crack the century mark.

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1206408912309760009

James Conner returned from a shoulder injury last week but had only eight carries for 42 yards. As a team, they rushed just 14 times for 51 yards. For all the struggles the Jets have faced this season, they do boast the NFL’s second-best run defense.

Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS on the road this season. Their desperation earns you some coin.

The Pick: Steelers -3 (-109)

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

Team Spread Odds
Arizona Cardinals +9.5 (-109)
Seattle Seahawks -9.5 (-109)

Analysis: It was a nice bounce-back win for the Seahawks in Week 15 against the Panthers, after getting shelled against the Rams in Week 14. That win, coupled with other happenings in the conference, lifted Seattle to top seed in the NFC.

They rank in the top 10 in both rushing (third) and passing (10th). Russell Wilson leads the attack, and he’s an MVP candidate albeit a distant second in a Lamar Jackson all-time season. Wilson will get a chance to really spin in this one, going against the league’s worst statistical defense. Arizona ranks dead last in defending the pass, and a woeful 25th against the run.

But even with the likely return of both Jadeveon Clowney and Ziggy Ansah to strengthen the pass rush, Seattle is a work in progress on defense. They’re ranked 27th in the NFL, including a brutal 29th against the pass, surrendering 271 yards per game.

That 11-3 mark is aided by the Hawks’ ability to win close games: they’ve won 10 games by one score or less.

The Cardinals have won three of their last four games in Seattle, and are 4-1-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Seahawks are just 2-4 ATS at home.

Kyler Murray should be able to move it at will against the Seahawks, and while Wilson’s heroics will deliver a W, they won’t cover.

The pick: Cardinals +9.5 (-109)

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

Team Spread Odds
Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-109)
Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 (-109)

Analysis: Dallas’ scenario is simple: win and you’re in. The Eagles need this one and a win in Week 17 to take the division.

Road favorites in the NFL are 42-37-1 ATS overall this season, and the Cowboys should be comfortable at the Linc, taking five of the last six meetings there. Another piece of good news for Cowboys fans is their 5-0 mark against the Eagles when Zeke Elliott is in the lineup. He’s been doing a lot of eating in those games too, averaging 163 yards from scrimmage. The team is also coming off a monster 263-yard trampling of the Rams’ run defense. Overall, Dallas boasts the top offense in the NFL.

Like most teams, Dallas wins when they score a lot of points. The Cowboys are 7-0 this year when breaking the 30-point plateau and 0-7 when they can’t reach that mark. They’ve been getting an MVP-level season out of Dak Prescott, and he should be a go even though he’s fighting a shoulder injury. He threw a season-low 23 times against the Rams as the running game did much of the heavy lifting.

Carson Wentz has been doing what he can to keep the Eagles’ offense affloat. He’s now thrown at least two TD passes in his last four games, and has a streak of a TD pass thrown in 17 straight games.

He’ll be going up against a legit Cowboys defense that ranks seventh in the NFL, including eighth against the pass.

I just don’t know how the Eagles are going to match Dallas’ firepower: in their last nine games, minus big scoring outbursts against Miami and Washington, the Eagles have averaged just over 17 points a game in the other seven, against teams that range from respectable to Super Bowl-caliber.

Conversely, in Dallas’ last nine, take away their output against New England and Buffalo – two teams that boast excellent defenses – and the Cowboys have averaged close to 29 points a game in the other seven.

The Pick: Cowboys -1.5 (-109)

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