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NFL Week 15 ATS Picks: Texans-Titans a Showdown for Tops in the AFC South

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated May 1, 2020 · 10:42 AM PDT

Ryan Tannehill celebrating
Ryan Tannehill has led the surging Titans into playoff contention. Photo from @TitansUni (Twitter).
  • Surging Titans go head-to-head with Texans for first place in AFC South
  • Bills and Steelers meet in battle of current wild card holders
  • ATS Week 14 Record: 3-1; Overall 2019 Record: 27-29-1

Week 13 was definitely lucky. Save for a Packers’ team that played down to the competition, our picks came through in a big way. We’re sticking with only games of significance going forward, and we start with the biggest tilt of Week 15 – a battle for supremacy in the AFC South. Can we get to at least .500 by the end of Sunday?

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Team Spread
Houston Texans +3 (+101)
Tennessee Titans -3.0 (-119)

*Odds from December 12 

Analysis: There are good stretches of play, and then there’s the current level of play that afterthought-backup-turned-Tennessee-savior Ryan Tannehill is on.

Since taking over for an ineffective Marcus Mariota as starter in Week 7, the Titans have reeled off six wins in their last seven games, with Tannehill the main cog in the turnaround. He leads the NFL with a 118.5 passer rating, while averaging a healthy 9.8 average yards per attempt. He’s second to the Saints’ QB Drew Brees with a 73.4 completion percentage.

He had his best outing of the year last week, going 21-for-27 for 391 yards and three TDs and one interception in a win against the Raiders, averaging a better than 15 yards a completion.

Tannehill is aided by the best second-half runner in football. Derrick Henry has ripped off four straight 100-yard rushing games, upping his total to 1,243 on the season. That’s second in the NFL, and he’s tied for the lead league with 13 TD runs. Henry’s wonky hamstring might be an issue, but he should be a go.

The South title runs through Houston, a team that has won the division three times in the past five years. They’ll have to stop a team that has reeled off four straight wins. As always, Houston’s success is tied to the brilliance of Deshaun Watson. In three career starts against Tennessee, he’s tossed 10 TD passes with a stellar 120.7 passer rating.

Perhaps this comes down to what pass defense can hold up from the onslaught – Houston ranks 27th, and Tennessee is 26th. When in doubt ride the hot hand: the Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four, while the Texans are just 1-3 ATS.

The Pick: Titans -3 (-119)

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Team Spread
Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-109)
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (-109)

Analysis: The Bills are just a win away from clinching a second straight playoff berth, but they’ll have to do it against one of the true turnaround stories in the NFL, a Steelers franchise that has beaten them in the last six meetings.

Buffalo is coming off a loss to the Ravens, in a game their third-ranked defense proved to be top notch. They held the juggernaut Ravens’ offense to just 24 points and 118 rush yards total for the game. But their offense is clearly the weaker unit, and under the spotlight Sunday night. Apart from rookie Devin Singletary, who had 89 yards rushing and six catches for 29 yards, no other Bills player played up to or above their expected level.

Josh Allen was pedestrian, going just 17-for-39 for 146 yards and a touchdown, with the only good news being that he didn’t turn it over. Allen has just one interception in his last eight games. John Brown and Cole Beasley combined for seven catches and 55 yards. It doesn’t get easier in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers’ defense is the driving force that turned a 1-4 start into a 7-1 run in their last eight games. They’re ranked fifth overall, and lead the NFL with 48 sacks and 33 takeaways. This will be a challenge for a so-so Bills pass protection unit that watched Allen get dropped six times and harassed countless others against Baltimore.

Pittsburgh WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and RB James Conner (shoulder) could return after missing the last three games, and that should help Duck Hodges, who has set a new bar for undrafted QBs, winning his first three starts.

This should be a slugfest, and one the opportunistic Steelers defense will make a difference in.

The pick: Steelers -1.5 (-109)

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers

Team Spread
Atlanta Falcons +11 (-114)
San Francisco 49ers -11 (-104)

Analysis: After watching their stellar defense and run game carry them early in the season, the Niners are in this rarefied Super Bowl contender air because QB Jimmy Garoppolo has taken the reins of the offense. He was dominant in Week 14, going 26-for-35 for 349 yards and four TDs and an interception in an epic 48-46 win over the Saints.

Quietly, the 49ers have been on an offensive tear in the last seven weeks. Minus the 20-17 loss to Baltimore in monsoon-like conditions, San Francisco is averaging better than 37 points per game in the other six. Jimmy G has thrown four or more touchdown passes in three of those starts, and their run game is still potent, racking up just under 150 yards on the ground per game, and they’re just one of two teams to run on more than half of its plays.

On the polar opposite are the Atlanta Falcons, who throw the ball on a league-high 67.4% of their plays. They are potent through the air, ranking third overall in passing offense. They like to move the ball down the field in chunks, with 205 plays this season picking up 10 or more yards, which is third-best in the NFL.

They’ll be going against a Niners defense that got lit on fire by Drew Brees, surrendering their highest point total of the season. San Francisco has had only four teams put up 20 or more points in a game on them all season before the Saints game.

Matt Ryan and company may have hung 40 on the Panthers last week, but they only have one win all year against a team with a winning record.

The pick: 49ers +11 (-104)

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Team Spread
Chicago Bears +4 (-109)
Green Bay Packers -4 (-109)

Analysis: Despite not playing a full 60 minutes, the Packers found a way to get it done against lowly Washington. Somehow, against the division rival-Bears, there should be some added incentive to put a nail in the coffin of what’s been a real letdown season for Chicago.

Green Bay could be the most beatable 2-seed in NFL playoff history, as their 10 wins shield a team that’s been wildly inconsistent this year. It starts with Aaron Rodgers: since beating the Chiefs in KC in Week 8 to get to 7-1, he’s thrown for under 200 yards in three of the last five games, including 195 last week against the Redskins. It’s part of the reason why the Pack have gone just 3-2 in these games.

It’s not that far of a stretch to claim that Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky might be the hotter QB heading into this one. The oft-maligned pivot is playing his best football this season, winning his last three starts, completing 70% of his passes for 860 yards, with seven touchdowns against four interceptions, and posting a 99.1 rating. His best outing was last week against the Cowboys, a top-10 rated D (although struggling as of late).

Trubisky threw for 244 yards and three TDs, while adding 63 yards on the ground and a rushing major to put the Bears at 7-6. How he’ll fare in the pocket with the Smiths (Preston and Za’Darius) trying to sack him will factor in this outcome.

Green Bay has won six of their last seven against Chicago, as well as nine of their last 11 meetings against Bears at Lambeau Field. Green Bay is 18-5 against Chicago with Rodgers as starting QB. I think the Pack bounce back in a big way.

The pick: Packers -4 (109)

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