- A couple road teams with 7+ wins are our underdog picks in some heavyweight matchups this week
- We’re also going to roll with the Chargers to beat the Raiders for the second time this year
- Our analysis, the Week 13 odds and best underdog bets can be found below
Last week, our upset specials went 2-1 and just missed out on going a perfect 3-for-3. A two-point conversion with 18 seconds left propelled the Chargers to a one-point win over Arizona keeping us from a clean sweep but still leaving our picks up one unit in Week 12. Read on for NFL Week 13 Picks.
For Week 13, we’re zeroing in on a couple of heavyweight matchups and going with the underdogs. The third straight-up prediction in the NFL Week 13 odds to score an upset is the aforementioned Chargers who we feel will carry the momentum of that victory on a two-point conversion into Sin City.
Our NFL predictions, picks and analysis on which underdogs to bet on the moneyline can be found below.
NFL Week 13 Upset Picks
|Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia Eagles
|Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers
|Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Odds as of December 2nd at Caesars Sportsbook.
NFL Week 13 upset picks: Titans to Run Over Eagles
It’s been three consecutive games where the Titans have failed to top 100 yards on the ground, the longest streak of the Mike Vrabel era. You know that’ll be a focal point when they engage a Philly defense that’s been suspect against the run this season, ranking 18th overall in the league.
Nevertheless, with a 10-1 record, the Eagles are favored by 4.5 points at the Linc on Sunday for a 1:00 pm ET kickoff against Tennessee. They’ll be missing stud safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who leads the NFL with six picks, due to a lacerated kidney.
Last week, Philadelphia just covered a 6.5-point spread against a Packers squad that’s been brutal all season and lost Aaron Rodgers in that game. In the two weeks prior, they squeaked out a one-point victory over Indy after that brutal Monday Night Football home loss to Washington.
All this is to say, the Eagles have not been playing their best football of late. On the other side of the field, the Titans are coming off a 20-16 loss to the Bengals and defeated the Pack by 10 the week before that. They’ve only got two road losses this year, at Kansas City and Buffalo.
I'm excited to see if the #Eagles continue the run skew that led to 363 rushing yards vs GB when they face a #Titans defense that is better against the run than pass and fittingly allows the most pass attempts (42.9) and fewest run attempts per game (21.9)pic.twitter.com/AL3dxP550c
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 30, 2022
Our feeling is the run game will play a vital role in this one. Vrabel will most definitely give the Eagles a steady dose of Derrick Henry and test recent interior line additions, Linval Joseph and NDamukong Suh along with Fletcher Cox.
For the Titans, they’ll have to find a way to contain Jalen Hurts. Rising the ranks in the NFL MVP odds, the Eagles quarterback rushed for 157 yards last week. Tennessee has the third-best run defense in the league, so keeping Hurts from scrambling for big yards will be crucial, but we’re betting they can do it.
Dolphins Stop 49ers Streak
Did you know the Miami Dolphins have not lost a game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished this year? In fact, Miami is a perfect 8-0 when Tua starts the game and doesn’t have to leave due to injury. So while the 49ers have a four-game win streak of their own, the question is, can they stop Tua Time?
The Dolphins are 4-point underdogs when they hit the road to take on the 49ers in Week 13. Tua has a 13-2 record over his past 15 starts. He leads the league in passer rating and third-down passer rating and he’s been an absolute beast in the red zone.
On the season, 36% of the passes he throws there result in touchdowns. That ranks number one in the NFL this year and is the best season for any QB since 2020. For anybody that’s watched, he’s also been clutch in the fourth quarter. In short, you can argue that nobody has been better at the quarterback position through 12 weeks.
Tua Tagovailoa ranks this season
Pass Rating 1st
Pass Rating on 3rd Down 1st
Pass Rating in 4th Qtr 1st
Pass Rating in Red Zone 1st
Pass Rating under pressure 1st
Pass Rating w/ game within 7 1st pic.twitter.com/W8g1vi42l8
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 2, 2022
The 49ers have the best defense in the league and play a physical brand of ball that could stunt the Dolphins’ offense in their tracks. Regardless, we like Mike McDaniel to figure out a way to keep Miami’s offense rolling and his pivot’s perfect record intact.
The Fish have scored 30 or more points in four straight games and while they might not get that many this time, we do think they’ll get enough to top San Francisco.
Herbert and Chargers to Score Early and Often vs Raiders
Whenever I think of the Chargers vs Raiders, my memory goes back to the epic final game of the regular season last year where Vegas won 35-32 in overtime with a spot in the playoffs on the line.
Let’s hope for a similar contest in this one, albeit, without the same implications. The Raiders don’t have much to play for at this point with a record of 4-7 which makes it somewhat surprising the Chargers are 1-point underdogs in a game that’s crucial to their hopes of staying relevant in the AFC playoff odds.
One of Herbert’s favorite teams to play against has to be the Chargers’ divisional rivals from Nevada. He’s thrown two or more touchdown passes all five times he’s faced the Raiders.
Derek Carr’s squad has won two in a row but needed overtime to get there both times. There’s an outside chance Mike Williams is back to give Herbert another weapon to throw to on Sunday, but regardless, this is the healthiest this Chargers team has been in a while.
We’re going to roll with Herbert’s squad to sweep the season series against the Raiders here in a game where we see a lot of points being put up on the board.