NFL Week 12 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets and Value Underdogs

• Home underdogs lead the way as the best bets to pull off upsets in NFL Week 12
•  Carolina Panthers will have Sam Darnold under center while Kyler Murray returns to action in Arizona
• Read on for all the odds and trends as NFL Week 12 action continues

A trio of home underdogs top the list of teams poised to stage an upset as NFL Week 12 action continues. The Carolina Panthers vie for a third straight road win as they host the struggling Denver Broncos while the Arizona Cardinals entertain the slumping Los Angeles Chargers as 3-point underdogs.

Also on Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars get set to face an opponent battling injury woes as they take on the Baltimore Ravens.

Here’s a look at our top picks to produce as underdogs in NFL Week 12.

NFL Week 12 Upset Picks

Odds as of November 25 at Caesars Sportsbook.

NFL Week 11 upset picks: Can Panthers make it Three in a Row at Home?

The Carolina Panthers have nowhere to go but up after turning in their weakest offensive performance of the season in last week’s 13-3 loss in Baltimore. In the wake of that defeat, the Panthers have opted to make another change under center ahead of Sunday’s date with Denver as 1-point home underdogs in the NFL odds, with Sam Darnold set to make his first regular-season start.

DJ Moore with Sam Darnold: 70.7 ypg, 5.7 rec, 9.8 targets per game, 14.4ppg

DJ Moore with Baker Mayfield: 35 ypg, 3.1 rec, 6.9 targets per game, 8.05ppg

DJ Moore with PJ Walker: 70.8 ypg, 4.5 rec, 8.5 targets per game, 13ppg

Moore helping fantasy teams down the stretch 👀

— Brandon Blanco (@BrandonBlancoFF) November 23, 2022

The Panthers will not suddenly become offensive powerhouses regardless of who is center, but it is tough to ignore their recent success at home where they achieved decisive victories over division rivals Atlanta and Tampa Bay. Darnold returns to action with an enormous amount to prove after being cast aside during the offseason after the team inked Baker Mayfield.

Darnold inherits an offense that averaged over 30 points per game in the four outings prior to last week’s loss. He will also face a Broncos squad that sports a formidable defense but which has scored more than 17 points on just two occasions during a 3-7 start. He also must contend with injuries to key personnel including receiver Jerry Jeudy, and defenders Jonathon Cooper, DJ Jones, and Justin Simmons.

Expect Cardinals to Enjoy a Lift from Kyler Murray’s Return

The Arizona Cardinals have seen their playoff hopes quickly fade while losing three of their past four contests. And that picture grew bleaker with the loss of Kyler Murray to an injury that has sidelined him for the past two games. Indeed, the Cards were embarrassed in last week’s blowout loss to San Francisco in a Monday Night Football matchup in Mexico City.

Two significant developments prior to #Chargers–#AZCardinals:
— QB Kyler Murray (hamstring) was a full participant.
— WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) was a full participant.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 23, 2022

Injuries remain a concern for this squad, with injuries to Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and Greg Dortch impacting their downfield depth. However, the timing may be perfect for the Cardinals to face the Los Angeles Chargers as 3-point home underdogs.

Despite sporting one of the most talented passers in the NFL in Justin Herbert, the Chargers have also struggled badly to generate offense, scoring 20 or fewer points in three of five outings. LA should get a boost from Keenan Allen’s return to health but look destined to hit the gridiron without injured receiver Mike Williams and cornerback Bryce Callahan.

Considering the Chargers’ recent offensive inconsistency and failure to beat a team with a current winning record, the Cardinals are a candidate to rebound this weekend.

Jaguars Seek to Exploit Ravens Injury Woes

The Jacksonville Jaguars enjoyed a bye last week that should leave them well-rested and in relatively good health when they hit the turf for Sunday’s clash with the AFC North-leading Baltimore Ravens as 3.5-point home underdogs. Losers in six of their past seven contests, the Jaguars’ long-awaited breakthrough has yet to materialize.

However, the Jags showed plenty of positives in their most recent home date – a 27-20 comeback victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. They have also received back-to-back steady performances from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has connected on three scoring passes over his past two outings while completing over 76% of pass attempts.

The Ravens represent a formidable opponent and ride a four-game win streak into Sunday’s contest. However, injuries have taken their toll on the Ravens, who needed a fourth-quarter rally to seal a 13-3 win over the Carolina Panthers last weekend.

Lawrence still faces a huge challenge to produce against a Ravens defense that has allowed just four scoring passes over four road games. But with Baltimore sporting a lengthy injury report that includes quarterback Lamar Jackson, receivers Demarcus Robinson and Devin Duvernay, and offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley, opportunity knocks for this talented Jags squad.

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