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Opening Odds to Make the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs and Best Early Value Picks

John Perrotto

by John Perrotto in NFL Football

Updated Apr 5, 2021 · 3:43 PM PDT

Tom Brady
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady leaves the field an NFL divisional round playoff football game against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans, in this Sunday, Jan. 17, 2021, file photo. om Brady has agreed to a contract extension with the Buccaneers that provides the Super Bowl champions with much-needed salary cap relief and will help the seven-time NFL champion reach a goal of playing until he’s at least 45. Brady posted a picture of himself on Twitter, signing the extension Friday, March 12, 2021, with the message: “In pursuit of 8 ... LFG@ Buccaneers we’re keeping the band together.” (AP Photo/Brett Duke, File)
  • Odds to make the NFL Playoffs for the 2021 season have been posted for all 32 teams
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are the biggest favorites to reach the postseason
  • A look at the odds for all 32 teams along with analysis and wagering advice can be found below

On the same day that the league officially announced it is expanding the schedule from 16 to 17 games for the 2021 season, the NFL Playoffs odds were posted for the 32 teams Tuesday.

The Kansas City Chiefs are biggest favorites to reach the postseason at -1000. The Chiefs made it to the Super Bowl for the second straight season in 2020, losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers have the best odds among NFC teams at -670. They met in the NFC championship game last season.

Odds to Make NFL Playoffs

AFC Odds to Make Odds to Miss
Kansas City Chiefs -1000 +625
Baltimore Ravens -400 +300
Buffalo Bills -305 +235
Indianapolis Colts -225 +180
Cleveland Browns -167 +137
Tennessee Titans -155 +127
Miami Dolphins +137 -167
New England Patriots +137 -167
Pittsburgh Steelers +137 -167
Los Angeles Chargers +149 -182
Las Vegas Raiders +275 -360
Denver Broncos +285 -375
Jacksonville Jaguars +340 -455
Cincinnati Bengals +400 -560
New York Jets +440 -625
Houston Texans +550 -835
NFC Odds to Make Odds to Miss
Green Bay Packers -670 +450
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -670 +450
Los Angeles Rams -182 +149
Dallas Cowboys -167 +137
San Francisco 49ers -167 +137
New Orleans Saints -115 +106
Seattle Seahawks -106 -115
Minnesota Vikings +154 -190
Washington Football Team +180 -225
Arizona Cardinals +200 -250
Chicago Bears +220 -278
Carolina Panthers +225 -286
New York Giants +260 -335
Philadelphia Eagles +275 -360
Atlanta Falcons +300 -400
Detroit Lions +575 -910

Odds as of March 30 from DraftKings

High on the Chiefs

Even though the Chiefs did not defend their Super Bowl title last season, it is not a surprise that they are given the best odds of making the playoffs. Any team that has Patrick Mahomes at quarterback already has a leg up on the competition.

And you know what they say about imitation being the sincerest form of flattery.

Mahomes will also be surrounded by familiar playmakers, including tight end Travis Kelce, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs led the NFL in total yardage with 358.3 a game while compiling a 14-2 record and finishing sixth in scoring with a 29.6 average.

The biggest question mark for the Chiefs is their offensive line, which was manhandled by the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl. Kansas City cut ties with tackles Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, and saw center Austin Reiter leave in free agency.

However, the Chiefs feel good about how they restocked the line in free agency by singings guards Kyle Long and Joe Thuney. Tackle Laurent Duvernay-Tardif is also expected back after sitting out the 2020 season to serve as a doctor during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Chiefs not only had the NFL’s best regular-season record last year but won their fifth consecutive AFC West title.

NFC Finalists Strong Again

The Buccaneers are also big favorites to get back to the playoffs after re-signing almost all their key free agents from the Super Bowl-winning team. Tom Brady helped make it happen when he restructured his contract to free up salary cap space.

The biggest contract was a four-year, $68-million contract to linebacker Shaq Barrett. Also brought back were linebacker Lavonte David, tight end Rob Gronkowski, running back Leonard Fournette, guard Aaron Stinnie, defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh and kicker Ryan Succop.

The Buccaneers placed the franchise tag on Chris Godwin and hope to sign the wide receiver to a long-term extension.

The Green Bay Packers had their 2020 season end on a sour note when they lost at home to the Buccaneers in the NFC title game. At 13-3, the Packers had the best record in the conference during the regular season.

The Packers’ big move in free agency was to retain one of their stars. Running back Aaron Jones was signed to a four-year, $48-million contract to help balance an offense led by the ageless Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers, though, did lose Pro Bowl center Corey Linsley to the Los Angeles Chargers and reserve running back Jamaal Williams to the NFC Central rival Detroit Lions.

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Lions’ Trade Doesn’t Impress

The addition of Williams was not nearly enough to help the Lions avoid a dubious distinction. At +575, they are the longest shot among the 32 teams to reach the postseason.

The Lions were involved in what has been the biggest offseason trade in the league, exchanging quarterbacks with the Los Angeles Rams. The oddsmakers do not seem to think the Lions got the better of the deal in shipping Matthew Stafford to the West Coast for Jared Goff, who was 23rd in the NFL in passer rating last season.

Goff, though, believes he has landed in the right place.

The Lions finished last in the division for a third straight season, going 5-11. Matt Patricia was fired as coach following a 41-25 loss to the lowly Houston Texans at home on Thanksgiving Day. Dan Campbell, who was the assistant head coach with the New Orleans Saints, is the new man in charge.

Terrible Texans

Speaking of the Texans, they are given the slimmest chance to make the playoffs from the AFC at +550.

Houston had a disastrous season last year, going 4-12, and coach Bill O’Brien was fired following an 0-4 start. Furthermore, quarterback Deshaun Watson asked for a trade in January after leading the league in passing.

Watson is embroiled in controversy as 19 women have filed civil suits against him claiming he sexually assaulted them. That has understandably torpedoed his trade value.

And don’t forget that defensive end J.J. Watt asked to be released from the final year of his contract and signed with the Arizona Cardinals as a free agent. He is only the most popular player in franchise history.

Looking for Value

The Arizona Cardinals seemed on their way to the playoffs last season when they got off to a 5-2 start. However, the Cardinals lost six of their last nine games to finish 8-8 and out of the postseason for a fifth straight year

The Cardinals looked poised to take a step forward in 2021. Kyler Murray now has two seasons of experience and one year working with dangerous wideout DeAndre Hopkins.

The Cardinals are also in win-now mode as evidenced by the signing of Watt. They also got Murray another receiver by signing A.J. Green and strengthened one of their biggest weaknesses by adding Pro Bowl kicker Matt Prater.

At +200, the Cardinals are worth a wager to make the playoffs. So, too, are the Cleveland Browns to miss the postseason at +137.

The Browns were a great story last season and Kevin Stefanski was deserving of NFL Coach of the Year. He led Cleveland to an 11-5 record, its first playoff appearance since 2002 and a road win over the nemesis Pittsburgh Steelers, in the wild-card round.

However, the Browns’ awful history can’t be forgotten, including losing at least 10 games in 16 of 22 seasons since reentering the league in 1999. The Browns still have more to prove.

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