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Over/Under For Most Wins in 2019 NFL Season Set at 13.5, Most Losses Set at the Same

Tom Brady on the field with the New England Patriots
Are Tom Brady's Patriots the NFL's most-likely team to eclipse 13.5 wins this season? Photo by apc99 (flickr) [CC License].
  • You can bet over/under on the most wins and losses for a team in the 2019 NFL Season
  • The line for both is 13.5
  • Historically, teams have tended to go over that number in each category

The NFL preseason is officially underway which means the regular season is right around the corner. The first game of the year kicks off Thursday, September 5th, and Bovada is offering customers the opportunity to bet over/under on the most wins and losses for any single team in the upcoming season.

Over/Under Most Wins For a Team in 2019 NFL Regular Season

Total Over Odds at Bovada Under Odds at Bovada
13.5 +120 -150

*Odds as of 02/08/19.

The 13.5 number for the wins prop is the same for the losses prop (see below). While at least one team has been exceeded 13.5 losses in two of the last three seasons, only one team has reached 14 wins in the last three years (2016 Patriots).

Best/Worst NFL Records Since 2016

Year Team Record
2018 Worst Record New Orleans Saints / Los Angeles Rams 13-3
2018 Best Record Arizona Cardinals 2-14
2017 Best Record New England Patriots / Philadelphia Eagles 13-3
2017 Worst Record Cleveland Browns 0-16
2016 Best Record New England Patriots 14-2
2016 Worst Record Cleveland Browns 1-15

However, a 14-win season has happened in six of the past 10 years. Not surprisingly, New England is favored to post the best NFL regular-season record in 2019, followed by the Rams and Saints. But will any team reach 14 wins?

Since the Patriots magical 16-0 regular season in 2007, they’ve managed to reach 14 regular-season wins twice. The odds of any team pulling off an undefeated season are extremely long, but 14 wins is well within their range of outcomes.

In terms of NFL strength of schedule, New England has one of the easiest paths to 14 wins as they’ll face just five playoff teams from 2018, and none until Week 9. They play in the softest division in football, and are virtually guaranteed 5-6 wins against AFC East opponents alone.

Three of their four most-difficult games on paper will take place at home, where they haven’t lost since October 1st, 2017. Their game at Philadelphia in late November might be the only one they aren’t favored in all season.

Even without Rob Gronkowski, they’re a decent bet to reach 14 wins.

As far as the other 14-win contenders, the Rams and Saints have a much more daunting schedules, which makes 14 a huge task. But the Eagles look like a viable contender to also reach that total since they could have four cupcake games in their division as well, between Washington and the NY Giants.

They’re top-7 in the Super Bowl 54 odds and have been blessed with the NFC’s easiest schedule. They play just five opponents who finished 2018 with a winning record and, if Carson Wentz can stay healthy all season, they could wind up with the Conference’s top seed for the second time in three years.

Pick: Over 13.5 wins (+120)

Over/Under Most Losses For a Team in 2019 NFL Regular Season

Total Over Odds at Bovada Under Odds at Bovada
13.5 -120 -110

*Odds as of 08/02/19.
In all but two of the last 10 seasons, an NFL team has finished with a record of 2-14 or worse. This year, it looks like there will be a fierce battle to finish with the worst regular-season record, and while the Dolphins are front and center, plenty of teams are one key injury away from hitting rock bottom.

Keying in on Miami, they didn’t improve at any key position and it’s actually in their best interest to lose a lot of games. Next year’s draft class features a pair of elite quarterback options, and this organization has been desperate for a star at that position since Dan Marino retired.

They didn’t pay all that much to get Josh Rosen from Arizona, so certainly won’t feel compelled to make him their franchise pivot going forward.

Unfortunately for the Phins, they won’t be the only franchise that is incentivized to lose once the season is a handful of weeks old. With the Giants, Cardinals, Bengals, and Washington all facing long odds to be competitive, one of these teams is bound to wind up with fewer than three victories.

Pick: Over 13.5 losses (-120)

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