Patriots vs Chiefs NFL Week 4 Spread Opens at Kansas City -7
- The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) host the New England Patriots (2-1) in Week 4 (Oct. 4, 4:25 pm EST)
- KC opened up as a touchdown favorite after upsetting Baltimore on Monday Night Football in Week 3
- Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff
If there was ever any doubt who the best team in the NFL was, the Kansas City Chiefs put that debate to bed on Monday Night. The reigning champs went into Baltimore and destroyed the Ravens 34-20 in what was being labelled the game of the year.
The Chiefs now set their sights on the New England Patriots in Week 4, looking to beat Bill Belichick’s club for the second consecutive season.
Patriots vs Chiefs Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +7.0 (-125) | +230 | OTB |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -7.0 (+105) | -280 | OTB |
Odds taken Sept. 28th at FanDuel
Not surprisingly, KC opened up as a touchdown favorite in the Patriots vs Chiefs odds, but it should be noted that the juice is shaded on New England’s side. That’s a good indicator that the line is likely to move in the Pats direction, but after watching Patrick Mahomes play on Monday Night, you have to wonder if that’s a wise decision.
KC Reigns Supreme
Perhaps Patrick Mahomes was getting tired of all the Russell Wilson MVP hype, because he certainly looked like the best player in football against the Ravens.
PATRICK MAHOMES ISN'T HUMAN 🚀pic.twitter.com/ELvIaUhWCh
— PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2020
Mahomes toyed with the Baltimore defense, completing 73.8% of his passes for 385 yards and 4 scores. He also added 26 yards and a touchdown on the ground, often picking up key first downs with his feet. With the victory, he improves to 10-0 in his career in September games, throwing 32 touchdowns in those contests. He also became the fastest quarterback in NFL history to reach 10,000 passing yards, accomplishing the feat in just 34 games.
Making history… again. Congrats @PatrickMahomes! pic.twitter.com/RwA1ysqKbW
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 29, 2020
The Chiefs offense looked like a well oiled machine, racking up 517 total yards and converting on 10-of-13 third downs. Dating back to last season, the Chiefs have now won 12 straight and are 10-1-1 against the spread.
Pats Pound the Rock
New England meanwhile, is fresh off a blowout win of its own. The Pats beat up on the previously undefeated Las Vegas Raiders 36-20 at Foxborough in Week 3, eviscerating the Las Vegas run defense.
Graceful! Controlled! A Perfect Ten!@RBrex34: running back or acrobat? pic.twitter.com/lJPMIOVK3u
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 28, 2020
New England racked up 250 yards on the ground and two scores, despite not getting much production from Cam Newton’s legs. Superman ran for only 27 yards, a week after rushing for 47 yards and two scores in Seattle.
The Pats best chance for success is to wear down KC’s leaky run defense, but as the Ravens found out on Monday, that plan can only be deployed if the game stays close.
Expect the Line To Fall Below 7
The spread for this game is on the verge of dipping below the key number of 7 around the industry and can already be found at 6.5 if you price shop. Gamblers will flock to bet a Bill Belichick team catching that many points, but before you do consider the following.
DK Metcalf 54 yard TD pass from Russell Wilson! 🔥🔥 #Seahawks @dkm14 @DangeRussWilson pic.twitter.com/cVBkPZfOYv
— SeahawksUnited (@SeahawksUnited_) September 21, 2020
The once vaunted Patriots defense has looked awfully average this season. Despite the convincing win over the Raiders, they still surrendered 375 yards of offense, a week after letting the Seahawks rack up 429 yards and 35 points. Yes it’s early, but New England’s defensive grades are not what you’d expect from a Belichick coached team. They’re the 13th highest graded defense by Pro Football Focus, and only seven teams grade out worse against the run.
The Chiefs meanwhile, have dangerous weapons at every single offensive position and should have no issue putting up points. In Mahomes’ three career games against Belichick’s defense, the Chiefs have averaged 31.3 points per contest.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
