Picks to Win Each Division After First Half of 2019 Season
- We are now through eight of the 17 weeks in the 2019 NFL season
- Only three division-leaders have a full two-game advantage (or more) over the rest of their division
- Get the best bets to win all eight NFL divisions below
And just like that, we’re halfway through the 2019 NFL season.
Entering Week 9, we have a pretty good idea of who the real contenders are – thanks to very minimal movement ahead of the trade deadline – and which teams are already thinking about next season.
But there are only two division races where I’d be willing to crown a winner already, and only three divisions where the team in first holds a full two-game (or more) lead over the field.
This means there is money to be made in betting NFL division futures. So let’s take a scroll through each one and pull out the best bet.
AFC East
The New England Patriots are going to win the AFC East. But betting anything with -6000 odds is not a smart play.
Odds to Win AFC East
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 8-0 (1st) | -6000 |
| Buffalo Bills | 5-2 (2nd) | +1000 |
| New York Jets | 1-6 (3rd) | +10000 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0-7 (4th) | +50000 |
All odds taken October 29
Unfortunately, your only play here is Buffalo at +1000. They have a pretty tough schedule over the second half of the season, but they’re the only team capable of catching New England.
The Jets are about to sell everything and there is no chance the Pats only win one of their next eight.
Hopefully you jumped on New England a long time ago. Otherwise, you’re stuck either playing the Bills or laying off.
AFC North
I can confidently say the Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the AFC North. But I don’t believe they’re the best bet to win the division right now.
Odds to Win AFC North
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 5-2 (1st) | -400 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3-4 (2nd) | +500 |
| Cleveland Browns | 2-5 (3rd) | +650 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0-8 (4th) | +100000 |
No team faces a tougher schedule in the second half than the Ravens. Baltimore has to deal with both remaining undefeated teams in the next five weeks, and also see the Texans and Rams. Finishing the season at 9-7 is pretty reasonable for the Ravens.
Meanwhile, the Browns face the second easiest strength of schedule over the final nine weeks. Having already beaten the Ravens in Baltimore, Cleveland presents a lot of value at +650.
AFC South
If you believe the AFC South is a two-horse race, there’s a great opportunity to lock yourself into some profit by betting the Colts at +140, and the Texans at +200.
Odds to Win AFC South
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 5-2 (1st) | +140 |
| Houston Texans | 5-3 (2nd) | +140 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-4 (3rd) | +600 |
| Tennessee Titans | 4-4 (4th) | +700 |
The Texans face the seventh-toughest schedule to finish the season, while the Colts have the 11th-easiest SOS over the final nine weeks.
.@JJWatt announces his 2019 season is over after suffering a torn pec. pic.twitter.com/avUTEQxvCT
— NFL (@NFL) October 28, 2019
Add in JJ Watt being done for the season, and I like the Colts to fend off the Texans in the AFC South.
If you’re looking for a bit of a long shot bet in any division, the Jaguars might be your best option. Jacksonville faces the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the league, and only find themselves 1.5 games back.
AFC West
Anyone who didn’t bet the Chiefs to win the AFC West at the beginning of the year should be thrilled that they’ve lost three games now due to Patrick Mahomes playing on a bad ankle and Matt Moore having to take on the Packers.
Odds to Win AFC West
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5-3 (1st) | -400 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3-5 (3rd) | +700 |
| Oakland Raiders | 3-4 (2nd) | +700 |
| Denver Broncos | 2-6 (4th) | +1800 |
The Chargers just fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, but I’m not sold on that fixing all their problems. The Raiders defense is awful. And the Broncos offense somehow keeps getting worse.
Be happy you can still get -400 odds on the Chiefs.
NFC East
If you followed my advice after Week 4, you’re currently sitting on both the Eagles and Cowboys to win the NFC at plus odds. If that’s the case, I’d sit on that. If not, here’s what I’d do …
Odds to Win NFC East
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 4-3 (1st) | -130 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4-4 (2nd) | +100 |
| New York Giants | 2-6 (3rd) | +3000 |
| Washington Redskins | 1-7 (4th) | +50000 |
The Cowboys face the third toughest SOS over the final nine games, according to my method that bases its calculations off Super Bowl odds. But the Eagles don’t have it much easier, seeing the eighth-toughest remaining schedule.
If either of these two make any sort of big splash at the deadline, it could change the odds significantly. Assuming we don’t get late news of Jamal Adams to the Cowboys, or Chris Harris to the Eagles, I’d ride with the Cowboys here.
They really made a statement in their 37-10 win over the Eagles in Week 7 and are simply the more trustworthy team right now.
NFC North
The Packers look like a team who are getting better each week. This is a pretty concerning thought for the rest of the league, since Green Bay has only lost one game so far and only have to face three teams with winning records the rest of the season.
Odds to Win NFC North
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 7-1 (1st) | -185 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 6-2 (2nd) | +160 |
| Detroit Lions | 3-3-1 (3rd) | +2500 |
| Chicago Bears | 3-4 (4th) | +3300 |
The Vikings also have a pretty light schedule over the second half, but I still cannot trust Kirk Cousins to get it done when it matters most.
If Minnesota can manage to win their next six – having to deal with Kansas City, Dallas, and Seattle among others – they’ll potentially have their opportunity to take the division at home in Week 16 against the Packers. But I’m not betting on Cousins to avoid dropping any of those games.
NFC South
As much as I hate advising anyone to bet odds this short, taking the Saints is the only way you’re going to make money here.
Odds to Win NFC South
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 7-1 (1st) | -1000 |
| Carolina Panthers | 4-3 (2nd) | +625 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-5 (3rd) | +2000 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1-7 (4th) | +20000 |
The Panthers face the second-toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, which includes Green Bay, New Orleans (twice), and Seattle.
The Saints face the fifth-easiest to finish the season, not that they need it.
NFC West
Fingers crossed you took my advice after Week 4 and bet the Niners at +240. If not, they’re still the best bet to win the NFC West.
Odds to Win NFC West
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 7-0 (1st) | -165 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6-2 (2nd) | +325 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-3 (3rd) | +350 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3-4-1 (4th) | +5000 |
Despite having to deal with the fifth-toughest schedule over the final nine weeks, I like San Francisco to finish the regular season with at least 12 wins.
They already went into LA and beat up on the Rams, but have yet to face the Seahawks. With how dominant the 49ers have been in the trenches this season, I worry for Seattle having to deal with them twice still.
This article may contain links to external sports betting services. SBD may receive advertising revenue from these links, however editorial has hand-picked each individual link based on relevance to the article, without influence on the coverage.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
